Red Flags: 5 college football teams on upset alert in Week 12
- Pac-12 continues to provide trap games in big spots
- Four Playoff contenders face nasty tests on the road
2. Georgia Bulldogs
Opponent: at 18 Tennessee | Time: Saturday, Nov. 18, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS) | Spread: UGA -10.5
Let me be as blunt as possible in saying this: I don't think Tennessee actually has a chance of upsetting rival Georgia on Saturday.
These are two different calibers of teams in the 2023 season and, though the transitive property rarely works perfectly in college football, it's telling that the Bulldogs scored a nine-point win over Mizzou only for the Tigers to turn around and beat the Vols by four scores a week ago. Georgia is a national championship contender while Tennessee is outside of the New Year's Six conversation.
While that is a simple way of framing this, the situation at hand does essentially require me by the laws of this sport and upset alerts to say that Georgia could, in theory, find itself in some trouble on Saturday in Knoxville.
The game being played in Neyland Stadium is one part of that equation. Georgia has recently seen its two biggest tests of the season in Missouri and Ole Miss, handling both of those beautifully. But not only could that mean that the Dawgs are a bit beaten-down from the pressure of those games, it's also worth noting that both of those victories came in Athens. Thus, a road trip to a raucous environment against a good team is a tough spot for Kirby Smart's team.
On top of that, if you're looking for an on-field window for the Vols, Georgia's run defense is not what it has been in years past. Tennessee's offense, in stark contrast to last year, has thrived with the ground game. That, in turn, could put the Dawgs on their heels.
Again, I don't see it happening. In fact, the more likely outcome is probably a blowout victory for Georgia. But is an upset possible and is part of the recipe there? Absolutely.