Red Flags: 5 college football teams on upset alert in Week 13

2. Alabama Crimson Tide

Opponent: at Auburn | Time: Saturday, Nov. 25, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS) | Spread: ALA -14.5

Based on everything we've seen this season, including Alabama's early-season struggles, this should be a blowout in favor of the Crimson Tide. Auburn has not had much fun in the first year under head coach Hugh Freeze, highlighted most recently by losing to New Mexico State a week ago by three freakin' touchdowns at home.

And yet... this is the Iron Bowl. This is the Iron Bowl at Jordan-Hare Stadium. This is the Iron Bowl at Jordan-Hare when Bama could easily overlook Auburn and be thinking about Georgia in the SEC Championship Game and their College Football Playoff hopes. And that's when madness tends to happen.

I'm not going to lie to you and tell you that there are many numbers that favor Auburn. There aren't. The Tigers defense has been fine but they've struggled to limit explosive plays, which has been the bread-and-butter for Jalen Milroe and the Alabama offense amid their second-half breakout. On top of that, a struggling Payton Thorne-led offense is going to have a hard time by the numbers against an elite defense.

When you look at the Iron Bowl history in Jordan-Hare, though, it's hard to overlook the calamity that's ensued, even when Auburn's been inferior. In 2021, the Tigers finished the season 6-7. But they took Alabama to overtime in a 24-22 loss. In 2019 and 2017, a ranked Auburn team upset a higher-ranked Alabama team. In 2015, they kept it to a 16-point loss despite being vastly outmatched.

On top of all of that, Freeze has a 2-3 record against Nick Saban in his career from his time at Ole Miss. He knows how to close a talent gap and make things close. With all of this in play, even if Alabama is clearly the better team by a country mile, all bets are out the window and upsets are on the table when it's the Iron Bowl at Jordan-Hare.