Red Flags: 5 college football teams to put on upset alert in Week 3

Early-season college football upsets typically follow a pattern — a pattern that we've already seen starting to form around the country. For instance, we've seen a Top 10 team in Florida State not get upset just once, but twice! Oh, and we got our quickly-becoming-typical Notre Dame upset loss that leaves everyone scratching their heads after they fell to Northern Illinois last week. So what's in store for our Week 3 upsets?

Well, if you just look at the Week 3 college football schedule, you might not see many obvious answers. There are only two ranked-on-ranked matchups, there are some massive spreads on the odds board that might make you think that upsets just aren't in the cards. But any seasoned college football fan will tell you that these are the exact weeks when complete chaos comes to the forefront.

Where will the chaos be coming this week? It's tough to say but we're going to try our best to put our eyeballs in the binoculars and see where the Red Flags are flying. These are the college football upset picks for Week 3.

Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

2024 Upset Picks Record: 4-6

5. Missouri Tigers

Opponent: 24 Boston College | Time: Saturday, Sept. 14, 12:45 p.m. ET (SECN) | Spread: MIZ -16.5

Picking Missouri to get upset at this point with how they've run out to their 2-0 start to the season might seem truly crazy at this point. Eli Drinkwitz's team has opened the season beating their two opponents by a combined 89-0. So yeah, you could say that the Tigers have been dominant — but what else would you expect when the season started against Murray State and Buffalo, both of those games being played in Columbia espeically.

On paper, Boston College isn't the same caliber of Mizzou, to be sure. Manhandling Florida State in Week 1 doesn't look as impressive as it would've sounded coming into the year and beating Duquesne doesn't truly mean all that much, even if it was dominant. What Bill O'Brien's team does have, however, is Thomas Castellanos and a unique, smart offense that could be trouble.

The one thing that I believe we haven't seen from Missouri is how they match up against an offense that can at least get them sweating a bit. Castellanos and the Eagles should have some success and, while the Tigers could score plenty of their own, this game could at least put some sort of a scare into Mizzou and, who knows, maybe that puts an upset viably in play.

4. Oregon Ducks

Opponent: at Oregon State | Time: Saturday, Sept. 14, 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX) | Spread: ORE -16.5

Another game that, on paper, doesn't look like much of a matchup. Oregon came into the season with expectations of potentially immediately winning the Big Ten in the Ducks' first year with the conference and also with national championship dreams looking like reality. Oregon State, meanwhile, lost its head coach, lost most of its impactful players from the 2023 campaign, and simply doesn't have a conference nor much high-end hope right now.

Here's the thing: Oregon hasn't looked like the team we'd thought they'd be this season at all. Their two wins to start the year have included having to claw their way to a win against Idaho and getting into a shootout won on a last-second field goal against Boise State last week. Dillon Gabriel and the offense have looked a bit out-of-sync, the defense hasn't lived up to its talent-level, and there is reasonable cause for concern.

While the Beavers have looked fine but not much more to open the season, Corvallis remains one of the toughest places to play in the country, particularly for this rivalry game. This could be a get-right game for the Ducks, sure, but it could also be considered a tough and bad spot to try and get right after a inauspicious start, something Oregon State would love nothing more than to add to.

3. LSU Tigers

Opponent: at South Carolina | Time: Saturday, Sept. 14, Noon ET (ABC) | Spread: LSU -6.5

Most people certainly didn't have Columbia, SC hosting College GameDay in Week 3 for LSU-South Carolina but, after Shane Beamer's Gamecocks put a beatdown on Kentucky last week, here we are. Perhaps even more surprising, this game is projected to be much closer than people thought given that the Tigers have also shown some warts early in the season.

Especially without John Emery Jr., LSU hasn't been able to run the ball effectively at all, even last week in a surprisingly tight game against Nicholls. Moreover, the defense has looked improved but not all the way under new DC Blake Baker. That's all to say, the Tigers look a bit susceptible as they go on the road to a raucous and tough road environment (cue Sandstorm).

Do I worry that South Carolina might not have the ability behind LaNoris Sellers to take advantage of the LSU defense? Absolutely. Having said that, the Gamecocks defense, particularly up front, is salty as hell and could cause the Tigers some problems. I imagine this game, which also could be rainy and muddy, to turn into somewhat of a rockfight and anything can happen, especially in Columbia.

2. Alabama Crimson Tide

Opponent: at Wisconsin | Time: Saturday, Sept. 14, Noon ET (FOX) | Spread: ALA - 15.5

Let me start by saying that I'm not entirely sure that the Wisconsin Badgers are really that good at all. However, we know beyond a shadow of a doubt that Camp Randall can be an incredibly difficult road environment for any team. More importantly, though, Alabama hasn't been the most confidence-inspiring team in the world through the first two games of the Kalen DeBoer era.

The Crimson Tide offensive line has been banged up to start the season and it's shown at times but, let's be honest with ourselves, USF and Western Kentucky aren't the teams that could take full advantage of that. Luke Fickell and Wisconsin, ostensibly, could do so much more effectively. The same is true for Tyler Van Dyke, even if imperfect, and a young Bama secondary that hasn't been all that effective in coverage but simply hasn't played a QB to take advantage of it.

This feels like a game where we're going to learn much more about Alabama than we have to this point. But if the offensive line remains compromised in this type of environment, an upset could absolutely be in play on Saturday afternoon in Madison.

1. Oklahoma Sooners

Opponent: Tulane | Time: Saturday, Sept. 14, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) | Spread: OU -13.5

Of all of the Week 3 upset picks, this is actually the one I feel the best about. Oklahoma is coming off of a narrow win against Houston which, before you say that's Power 4 competition, there's a real chance that the Cougars are among the worst Power-conference teams in the country this season. And now the Sooners face a Tulane team that just took Kansas State to the brink.

As of right now, there should be confidence in the Sooners defense. It's no shock that Brent Venables has that side of the ball cooking. But while I believe in the future of Jackson Arnold, he has looked young to this point and hasn't been helped by the fact that Oklahoma came into the year with depth concerns about the offensive line that are already being tested and may be a legitimate issue.

With those concerns, I expect Jon Sumrall, who just simply might be a better coach than Venables, to come out and have a game plan to attack that weakness. And with the proclivity the Green Wave have displayed for producing explosive plays, there's a chance OU gets put behind the 8-ball early in this game and may struggle to catch up or be as lucky as they may have been against Houston.