Red Flags: 5 college football teams to put on upset alert in Week 4

We just went through a week in college football with quite literally no upsets of ranked teams. That understandably isn't even close to the preferred outcome of many fans of this sport, yours truly included in that. There's so much to love when this sport gets truly chaotic. But coming off of a week when upsets were nonexistent and now we have a tasty slate, that could just mean the walls are about to start coming down with an apocalyptic-type Saturday.

Our Week 4 college football upset picks are limited to five teams showing Red Flags, as per usual, but that also leads to some notable exclusions. Utah playing at Oklahoma State is a matchup of Top 15 teams. It's also a game in which the spread has oscillated back and forth across the pick-em line, so it's honestly too close to call for an upset. It could go either way. Louisville welcoming Georgia Tech was actually the toughest exclusion as the Cardinals face by far their biggest test yet.

But again, we're not talking in-depth about those matchups. Instead, we've spotted the Red Flags and these are our college football upset picks for Week 4 we feel best about.

Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

2024 Upset Picks Record: 4-11

5. Nebraska Cornhuskers

Opponent: 24 Illinois | Time: Friday, Sept. 20, 8 p.m. ET (FOX) | Spread: NEB -7.5

We'll get things started on Friday with a huge Big Ten matchup between Top 25 teams. Nebraska has been riding high behind Dylan Raiola and the rest of Matt Rhule's team to a 3-0 start that seems to have everyone believing that the Huskers are all the way back while we're looking at a new era of success fans have been clamoring for.

To be sure, I do believe that we're at the beginning of a new era for the Cornhuskers, one that should be prosperous. At the same time, I'm not sure we should be calling this team all the way back after wins over Northern Iowa, Colorado and UTEP to begin the season. And now Illinois, a team that's more experienced and already more battle-tested this season, is coming to Lincoln.

Nebraska has been strong in many ways but particularly on the defensive front. Raiola has had a comfy job because he simply hasn't had to play in tight games. But Illinois is far and away the best O-line the Huskers have faced this season. Will the defense be able to keep the offense comfortable and, if not, how will the offense respond? That's a lot of questions that Bret Bielema might be trying to answer for Illinois to pull this one off on Friday night.

4. Miami Hurricanes

Opponent: at USF | Time: Saturday, Sept. 21, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) | Spread: MIA -16.5

Myself and many others throughout college football have been quick to anoint the Miami Hurricanes this season as both the class of the ACC and a team that could potentially vie for a College Football Playoff run. And to be sure, Mario Cristobal's team has the talent to absolutely do just that — but there's also a chance we've been overreacting a bit to the Canes' start to the year.

Sure, Miami has blown the doors off of the three teams they've played. But their crowning achievement to this point has been going to The Swamp and beating a Florida team almost everyone agrees is downright terrible. What are we actually supposed to make of that, especially now as they go on the road to play in Tampa against a USF team that has been frisky time and again under Alex Golesh.

USF played Alabama extremely close through three quarters earlier this year and have their own offensive difference-maker in quarterback Byrum Brown. More importantly, Todd Orlando's defense has been causing problems for opponent all year. Maybe an upset doesn't happen, sure, but there is definitely a good chance that this game ends up much closer than expected.

3. Texas A&M Aggies

Opponent: Bowling Green | Time: Saturday, Sept. 21, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+) | Spread: TXAM -22.5

Speaking of much closer than expected, I haven't heard a single soul mention the Texas A&M Aggies as a team that could be in danger against an unranked opponent for their Week 4 matchup. After all, this is an SEC-vs-MAC matchup in College Station, so it shouldn't be a problem at all, right? Well, not so fast there.

Much like with Miami, one could argue that Texas A&M has yet to do anything all that impressive this season. Notre Dame doesn't look like the Top 10 team they were ranked as in that loss and the Aggies only topped Florida by 13 points last week. Meanwhile, Bowling Green had Penn State on the ropes a bit a few weeks ago with an experienced offense led by Connor Bazelak and Harold Fannin that had some big moments against a Nittany Lions defense that, frankly, is better than A&M's.

It would actually make me feel better about A&M if Marcel Reed is indeed starting over Conner Weigman. But no matter who is the quarterback, Bowling Green is quietly performing like one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country. And I'm not sure we should be giving the Aggies three touchdowns worth of respect in such a matchup based on what we've seen.

2. USC Trojans

Opponent: at 18 Michigan | Time: Saturday, Sept. 21, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS) | Spread: USC -4.5

Full disclosure, the likeliest outcome of Saturday's high-profile matchup between the USC Trojans and Michigan Wolverines is going to be the former beating the latter handily. Even with Sherrone Moore going to Alex Orji at quarterback over Davis Warren, I'm not sure there is a quarterback on the roster who can make this offense as functional as it needs to be.

At the same time, this will be by far the best defense that Miller Moss and USC have faced to this point. It's also substantially the most hostile and tough environment that the Trojans signal-caller will have had to play in to this point in his young career. On top of that, while it looks like D'Anton Lynn has improved the USC defense immediately and noticeably, it's also worth noting that the Trojans have had issues tackling in recent years, so a glorified triple-option rushing attack with Orji could cause them some issues.

Again, there's a big part of me that thinks Michigan is simply resting on the laurels of last season while being a decisively average team in the 2024 college football season. At the same time, the Big House is never a friendly environment and the Trojans don't fully have the benefit of the doubt just yet. So putting USC on upset alert just seems unavoidable in this spot.

1. Tennessee Volunteers

Opponent: at 15 Oklahoma | Time: Saturday, Sept. 21, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) | Spread: TEN -6.5

The fact that I see the two biggest matchups of Week 4 (USC-Michigan and also Tennessee-Oklahoma) as pretty one-sided coming into Saturday's action actually makes me think that an upset in either of those games is potentially likely. But on paper to this point, I'm not sure how you could like Oklahoma, even in Norman, based on how they've looked and how Josh Heupel's Vols have looked to this point as well.

Put simply, Tennessee has looked like a death machine and, to the chagrin of every other program, on both sides of the ball too. The defensive front has been lethal at generating pressure and now faces a Sooners offensive line that is both banged-up and not playing well in any capacity. That's not a recipe for success.

However, Oklahoma has a chance in this one to pull off an upset for two reasons. First off, Brent Venables remains a stout defensive mind with a talented group on that side of the ball. This will be the biggest setting for Nico Iamaleava yet and we could see some warts on that front, which would be to the home team's advantage. But on top of that, Heupel will surely be out for some semblance of revenge in this game, which could, in theory bite him.

It's probably more likely that Tennessee wins in a blowout than that OU picks up the upset win, but the scenario is still likely enough that I have to put the Vols on upset alert.