Red Flags: 5 college football teams on upset alert in Week 6

If you've followed this sport for any amount of time, you have to know that the college football Week 6 upset picks and even the possibilities are absolutely as juicy as they can possibly be. It's these college football weeks sandwiched between two marquee slates wherein teams fall into trap games, underestimate opponents, or get caught sleepwalking. Then, boom, we've got an upset.

Our upset picks this week, however, won't include three ranked teams in tricky spots. The Missouri-Texas A&M game is too close to call and the higher-ranked Tigers are actually underdogs on the road. While Georgia could be reeling after the loss to the Crimson Tide, Auburn just doesn't scare me in the slightest — especially in Athens. And then I would have Michigan on the road at Husky Stadium on upset alert but Washington is already the favorite at home, so we can't be doing that.

Don't worry, though, we've still got plenty of upset picks on deck.

And one last thing, shouts to my False Start cohost, co-worker and friend John Buhler for coming in with these picks last week while I was away. It may have been a 1-4 record that hurt him, a Georgia fan, as the Dawgs fell to Alabama, but he was closer on several others. It was a great effort that we appreciate. But we move forward with our Week 6 college football upset picks because the Red Flags are a-waving once again.

Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

2024 Upset Picks Record: 6-14

5. UNLV Rebels

Opponent: Syracuse | Time: Friday, Oct. 4, 9 p.m. ET (FS1) | Spread: UNLV -6.5

Let's get this out of the way: Despite all of the drama and hullabaloo that was made about Matt Sluka entering the portal over an NIL disagreement with UNLV, the Rebels actually may have upgraded with Hajj-Malik Williams taking over at quarterback. This team has looked the part of a Group of 5 contender to this point. However, Syracuse might be a somewhat rude awakening for Barry Odom's team.

For one, Syracuse doesn't look like a pushover in the slightest. The loss to Stanford was a shock but Kyle McCord, overall, has played extremely well and leveled-up from last season in Columbus while the offensive weapons like Lequint Allen and a deep, diverse receiver room are dangerous. Then, on the flip side, you have a G5 program that's quite good but may not be able to match the caliber of athlete.

More importantly for UNLV being on upset alert, though, there is a little paper tiger to the Rebels in their 4-0 start. Yes, wins over Houston, Kansas and Fresno State look good on paper but the Cougars might be the worst Power 4 team in college football, the Jayhawks have regressed significantly, and the Bulldogs are lesser than in many previous years by a wide margin. Now with the Orange coming to Sin City, there's a chance that the Rebs get hit in the mouth and don't have enough answers.

4. Tennessee Volunteers

Opponent: at Arkansas | Time: Saturday, Oct. 5, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) | Spread: TENN -13.5

Even with the Arkansas Razorbacks looking exponentially better than many expected coming into this year for Sam Pittman's team, this should be a relatively comfortable game for Tennessee. The Hogs' defense might not be able to match up on the outside and that could mean a big game for Nico Iamaleava. Plus, the Vols defense is by far the best unit we've seen in the Josh Heupel era, which is why many have them tabbed as a potential national title threat.

There are two major things that stand out for Tennessee in this matchup, though. On the field, this will be the most substantial test the Vols defense has seen to date. I do believe in the ability and ceiling of this group as the best we've seen out of Knoxville in some time but, even in matchups against NC State and Oklahoma, they truly haven't faced stiff competition. Now a great offensive mind in Bobby Petrino leads Taylen Green and Ja'Quinden Jackson onto the field and could really test the salt of the Vols on that side of the ball.

Perhaps more crucially for any upset picks, this is a trap spot for the Vols. Next week, they welcome rival Florida to Neyland Stadium for a game where they surely have eyes to make a statement. Then, the week after, the Vols host Alabama in a monstrous SEC showdown. It would be quite easy to look-ahead past Arkansas but, given the challenges the Razorbacks could present, that could get tricky awfully quickly for Tennessee on Saturday.

3. Louisville Cardinals

Opponent: SMU | Time: Saturday, Oct. 5, Noon ET (ESPN) | Spread: LOU -6.5

Not to put too fine of a point on it but how sure are we that the Louisville Cardinals are a Top 25 team in college football? Yes, they've only lost one game, which came last week against Notre Dame — but let's not forget that's an Irish team that lost to Northern Illinois but had no real issue keeping Jeff Brohm's team at arm's length for the entirety of that matchup.

Beyond that, the Cardinals have beaten Austin Peay, a much-regressed Jacksonville State team, and a middling Georgia Tech group. That's not exactly a resumé that inspires a ton of confidence in the Cardinals, especially when I already came into the season knowing that Louisville benefitted greatly from their schedule a year ago and had to replace numerous key pieces, not the least of which was Jack Plummer who they may have downgraded from by bringing in Tyler Shough.

That leads us to SMU coming to town. While the early weeks were a bit suspect, including their lone loss to BYU (which looks a lot better with the Cougs at 5-0 now), things have started trending up in a big way. They won the Iron Skillet by hanging 66 on TCU then blasted Florida State to worsen their woes. The switch to Kevin Jennings at QB has been monumentally important and, frankly, I'm beginning to think this is a wrong-team-favored situation but we'll still count it as an upset given that the Cards are, in fact, the favorite by just shy of a touchdown.

2. Ole Miss Rebels

Opponent: at South Carolina | Time: Saturday, Oct. 5, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) | Spread: MISS -9.5

We may have seen the Achilles heel for Ole Miss in their shocking upset loss to Kentucky (in Oxford, no less) last Saturday. While the Rebels rolled through lesser competition, one of the biggest things that stood out in that game was that Kentucky just looked like the more physical and subsequently the dominant team in the trenches. So when you see that, you have to be worried about this game in Columbia against South Carolina, and that's without thinking about the Gamecocks thumping the Wildcats team that just took down Ole Miss.

Without hyperbole, Shane Beamer's team might have the most dangerous defensive front in the SEC this season. Kyle Kennard and Dylan Stewart are nightmares off the edge but they have a stout and experience interior push as well led by TJ Sanders. With that, they absolutely have the dudes to be able to come in and get Jaxson Dart uncomfortable consistently to throw Ole Miss off of their game offensively.

More than that, while the Gamecocks starting quarterback is still in question as LaNorris Sellers makes his way back, both he and Robby Ashford can provide an even more dynamic version of what Kentucky threw at Ole Miss with Brock Vandagriff and Gavis Wimsatt. All the stars are aligning, without question, and it's a very real possibility that the Rebels wind up losing two straight, especially now having to go on the road for this one.

1. Miami Hurricanes

Opponent: at Cal | Time: Saturday, Oct. 5, 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) | Spread: MIA -10.5

On paper, this shouldn't be much of an issue for the Miami Hurricanes. They have looked the part as the class of the ACC this season, even with the scare last week against rival Virginia Tech. Having said that, the near upset loss to the Hokies could be just the wake-up call that The U needed to make this trip a little bit less of a trap game.

At the same time, situationally, there are clear red flags where this could get tricky for the Canes. That really starts with the schedule. Miami has yet to have a bye, meaning this will be their sixth-straight week on the field. And when you then throw in that they'll have to make one of the longest road trips in college football this season anywhere to play this game, flying from Miami to Berkley, that only makes it a bit more dangerous spot on the schedule.

Beyond that, Justin Wilcox has been dynamite as an underdog, especially at home, throughout his career and is familiar with Cam Ward from his time at Washington State. He'll have a defense dialed up and has enough playmakers on offense to at least dial something up to get on the board. Again, there is a world wherein Miami completely dominates this game. However, with all that's going on and could transpire, we still have to put them on upset alert.