Can Connor Bedard still win Calder Trophy despite missing close to two months?

The Calder Trophy race was always going to be an interesting one heading into the season. There was a generational talent in Connor Bedard, who went first-overall to the Chicago Blackhawks and was expected to make an immediate impact on the league. Luke Hughes, the youngest of the star-studded Hughes Brothers, was officially making his jump into the league after an impressive run in the playoffs last season. Adam Fantilli was looking to help the Columbus Blue Jackets turnaround. Marco Rossi finally had a solidified role with the Minnesota Wild. There were great candidates everywhere.

However, about a month into the season, the Calder Trophy became Connor Bedard's to lose. He was racking up so many points, and he was doing it while making highlight reels on a nightly basis. His goals were amazing. He was passing to stiffs, but he still helped them score goals. Taylor Hall suffered a major injury, and Corey Perry did something bad that got him kicked off the team. His linemates are an aging (that's being nice) Nick Foligno and Phillip Kurashev.

Then, on a Thursday night against the New Jersey Devils, Bedard ran head first into defenseman Brendan Smith's shoulder, and he left the game never to return. We finally got an update on what happened. Bedard broke his jaw. He will miss between six and eight weeks, meaning he is going to miss his first All-Star Game.

It's rough news for a Blackhawks team that has nothing else going for it. It is interesting news when it comes to the Calder Trophy. Theoretically, this puts names like Hughes, Rossi, and Brock Faber back into the mix. In a normal year with normal rookie, this would knock Bedard out of the race. Two months of production is too big a burden, but this isn't a normal rookie.

Last year's winner Matty Beniers only missed two games on the season. Detroit defenseman Mortiz Seider, the 2022 winner, hasn't missed a game in his career. Connor McDavid actually lost out on the Calder Trophy because he missed close to half the season. He was still top-three in voting because he had 48 points in 45 games, but he ended up losing to Artemi Panarin.

Elias Pettersson missed a few games in 2018-19, finishing the year with 71 games played. That year wasn't as competitive, with a 25-year-old Jordan Binnington as the second place vote getter. It's hard to find anyone who missed 20 games (around what they are predicting for Bedard) and still won Rookie of the Year.

However, and we can't stress this enough, Bedard is different. He has more points than any rookie (still nine ahead of Rossi and Fantilli) and goals. He's tied with Faber in assists. When he comes back, since a jaw injury shouldn't impact his on-ice play, he should get back to the pace he was at before. That is good for 52 points on the season. If he bumps that up to 60 in 62 games, the Calder should be his. If he falls short of that milestone, that opens the door for Hughes, Faber, or Rossi.