Cubs could create doomsday scenario for Cardinals this winter with potential free-agent fit

The Chicago Cubs' front office has earned decidedly mixed reviews since Jed Hoyer took over. Last offseason was a prime example of their stubborn commitment to teasing the fanbase. That Shota Imanaga contract was a heist job. Cody Bellinger re-signed after months of uncertainty. And yet, in the end, Chicago didn't no half enough to build a genuine contender. Even after prying Craig Counsell away from Milwaukee in what was widely hailed as a seismic shift in the NL Central's competitive hierarchy.

Milwaukee was still the division winner this season, with the Cubs finishing in a distant second place and sent back to the drawing board. Chicago is a premier baseball market, so there's no excuse for the front office to cut corners. And yet, that has become something of a specialty for Hoyer. The Cubs stay away from the big-ticket free agents and tend to fumble contracts in that second tier of stardom. Chicago is constantly hedging bets and limiting risk, which equates to a death knell for World Series aspirations.

The Cubs will need to be careful this offseason. We can safely assume that Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes are out of Hoyer's price range. That said, the Cubs need help — particularly on offense, as slugging was a major weak point for Counsell's squad. One marquee free agent has been making the rounds in certain internet corners, and it's the exact sort of name Chicago should steer clear of.

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Cubs shouldn't engage with Paul Goldschmidt in free agency

Paul Goldschmidt was National League MVP just a couple years ago. You'd think Chicago would jump all over that. Unfortunately, age has caught up to Goldy, who is 37 years old and unambiguously on the decline.

He finished the 2024 season stronger than he started, but Goldschmidt's numbers were far removed from his MVP heights with the St. Louis Cardinals. He slashed .245/.302/.414 with 22 home runs in 599 ABs — utterly fine, but not enough to recommend an investment from the Cubs.

Goldschmidt can still rake it — he finished this season in the 92nd percentile for hard-hit rate — but the consistency is waning and he's trending in the wrong direction. Goldschmidt won't get more than a year or two on his next contract, but his compensation is bound to exceed his on-field value. The seven-time All-Star is still very much a brand name and he will pitch teams on his track record.

The Cubs are already stingy enough when it comes to adding talent through free agency or trades. After bungling the Isaac Paredes trade, Chicago definitely cannot afford to drop a bag on Goldschmidt when he's destined to underperform. Michael Busch has been more than solid at first base, and Goldy in the DH slot would be a disastrous misallocation of resources.

Here's Rich Eberwein of Cubbies Crib nailing down why Goldschmidt should be far off the radar for Chicago:

"Goldschmidt was that guy at one point in his career, but he isn't a long-term option given his age. The Cubs shouldn't gamble on Goldschmidt returning to form when they have a younger player who is trending in the right direction and a more attractive alternative available in Alonso."

Exactly. The Cubs either need to go all-in for the best option available (Pete Alonso) or invest in the development of an excellent in-house rising star (Michael Busch). Splitting the difference and taking a short-term flier on Goldschmidt will still cost the Cubs a fair amount, and it's bound to end in disappointment. Busch was a more efficient (and straight-up productive) player last season and Alonso would provide an actually meaningful influx of slugging for Chicago's lineup.

Go for it or don't. Jed Hoyer should not, however, try to buy low of a splashy upgrade and end up wasting another regular season while Paul Goldschmidt recedes further into his post-prime.