Details of Florida record projection all but seal Billy Napier’s fate

One could argue that nobody has a tougher schedule in all of college football than Billy Napier's Florida Gators. Divisions may have gone away in the SEC, but it doesn't help the Gators in the slightest. They still have to play major rivals Georgia and LSU in conference play, as well as drawing all three Floridian Power Four teams in the non-conference in Florida State, Miami and UCF. Good grief...

In Brad Crawford's SEC win total projections over at 247Sports, he somehow convinced himself that the 2024 Gators are going 6-6 overall and 3-5 in SEC play. Crawford has them finishing in 11th place in the expanded SEC with wins over Miami, Samford, Texas A&M, UCF, Kentucky and LSU. What are we even doing here? This is a team that might win three games. Samford is obvious, but the rest are not.

If you are bullish on the Gators, I can see how you can give them wins over Kentucky and UCF. These are little brother rivals of Florida, so a loss to either of them would be nails in the coffin for Napier's tenure in Gainesville. Again, I have no problem with wins over those two, plus Samford. However, Miami is a push, Texas A&M is better and there is no way in hell that LSU doesn't beat Florida this year.

The Gators need to win at least six games for Napier to maybe keep his job. There aren't six wins here.

Billy Napier has virtually no shot of surviving Florida's 2024 gauntlet

Crawford argues that Napier could get Florida to bowl eligibility by winning one of its final five games. The Gators' opponents are Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State. We are talking about five teams that could realistically make the College Football Playoff. Georgia and Texas are locks. Ole Miss is right there. Florida State and LSU are borderline. Would it shock you if they won 10 games apiece?

The saving grace for Napier is that he has recruited well at Florida, but also just how brutal this schedule really is. He may get the benefit of the doubt in some capacities, as going 8-4 would be an unbelievable season for the Gators, all things considered. However, Napier has started to resemble Sun Belt Billy more and more with each passing season in Gainesville. Florida is getting so impatient.

Ultimately, Florida needs to find the right head coach to get out of this lull it is in. Too bad Steve Spurriers and Urban Meyers don't grow on trees. They need a head coach with recruiting chops, a dynamic offense, and one-of-one personality. Lane Kiffin and Steve Sarkisian are out there, but why would they ever want to leave Ole Miss and Texas for this mess down in Gainesville? This is so bad.

Napier will find work after this year, but it will take a miracle for him to be able to survive the schedule.