Did Paul Skenes do enough to clinch NL Rookie of the Year award?

Paul Skenes took the baseball world by storm when he began dominating college baseball last Spring with his impressive arsenal of pitches. Skenes was able to command his triple digit fastball as well as his slider and changeup better than just about any hard thrower in the game of baseball.

After a successful college career, capped off by a College World Series victory, Skenes would land with the Pittsburgh Pirates with the first overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft.

After a short minor league career, Skenes would debut with the Pirates, taking MLB by storm this time. He put together quite an incredible rookie year, but the NL Rookie of the Year award is still in the air because of a special rookie who plays for the San Diego Padres.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop between now and the MLB offseason.

NL Rookie of the Year: Did Paul Skenes do enough to win it?

The only reason that Skenes hasn't absolutely ran away with this award is because of Jackson Merrill in San Diego. Let's first take a look at Merrill's spectacular 2024 season.

Merrill, 21, is slashing .292/.324/.500 with 24 home runs and 16 stolen bases through 155 games. He adds six triples and 31 doubles to his impressive resume. Merrill adds incredible baserunning and defense to his season as well. While working as the everyday center fielder for the postseason-bound Padres, Merrill was worth 10 outs above average (OAA) and 9 fielding run value (FRV), per Baseball Savant, both being among the best outfielders in the league.

There's no doubt that Merrill is having an incredible season. But so is Skenes. These are, without a doubt, the top two rookies in all of baseball. After Skenes' two-inning appearance against the Yankees in game number 161, his season is officially over. Let's see where he stacks up against Merrill.

Skenes made 23 starts, throwing 133 innings on the year. In that time, he pitched to an MLB rookie record 1.96 ERA. He paired that with a sub-1.00 WHIP and a strikeouts per nine innings ratio (K/9) north of 11.0. He routinely dominated the best hitters in the game, including striking out Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, and Jazz Chisholm in his final start of the season.

Skenes is likely to be cursed by the fact that Merrill played a full season while Skenes only made 23 starts. If Skenes had been given closer to 30 starts, he would be way more involved in the Cy Young conversation, not just the Rookie of the Year conversation.

This race is incredibly close, but I would give the edge to Merrill at this point in time. It's criminal that one of these guys will have to finish second in the voting because each of them have had generational rookie seasons.