Dodgers magic number: Counting down to Los Angeles' possible playoff berth [Updated Sept. 18]

The Los Angeles Dodgers are where everyone thought they'd be when they won the offseason by signing Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Teoscar Hernandez while also trading for Tyler Glasnow. They're sitting comfortably in first place in the NL West.

It hasn't been pretty the entire way, as they've dealt with a bevy of injuries and have seen their play reach frustrating levels of inconsistency, but they've been in sole possession of first place in the NL West since March 31.

The Arizona Diamondbacks had a golden opportunity to change that, as they were set to host the Dodgers for four games at Chase Field. Unfortunately for them, they took two crushing losses in the first three of the four games in the series. There are still two more games to play, but the Dodgers now have a 91.8 percent chance to win the division per FanGraphs. Their odds are so favorable, in fact, to the point where Dodgers fans can realistically begin thinking about magic numbers.

What is a Magic Number?

Here is how MLB.com defines a magic number:

"In baseball, the phrase 'magic number' is used to determine how close a team is to making the playoffs or winning the division. It becomes prominent every year in September as teams begin closing in on clinching."

A magic number dictates how close a team is to either making the playoffs or winning their respective division. It only really becomes relevant as teams like the Dodgers begin dreaming of the postseason.

How a magic number is calculated

It's actually quite simple to calculate a magic number. All that you need to pay attention to is the number of outcomes that the team needs either to clinch a playoff spot or a division title.

In the case of the Dodgers and their standing in the NL West, Dodgers fans need to pay attention to their wins and the losses of those behind them. Any Dodgers win or loss from the second-place team in the NL West will improve their magic number to clinch the division. Once that number dwindles down to zero, you'll see the Dodgers celebrate another division title.

Current Magic Number for Dodgers

The formula for figuring out the Dodgers' magic number is quite easy to come up with. We need to look at the number of games in the regular season (162) and then subtract the Dodgers wins and the losses coming from the second-place team.

The Los Angeles Dodgers current magic number is 8.

As of this writing, the Padres sit in second place in the NL West. Factoring in the amount of wins that the Dodgers have (89) and the losses San Diego has (66), the formula is easy to draw up. After doing the calculations, you'll arrive at a magic number of 7.

In some situations, depending on season series, we have to add one to the magic number. That has to happen in this case, as the Padres came out victorious in the season series between these two bitter rivals. That is why their magic number is at 8.

Any combination of 8 Dodgers wins and Padres losses guarantee the Dodgers the division title as of this writing.

Historical Context

Dodgers fans should be as knowledgeable as any fanbase when it comes to magic numbers because they're in the running for the division title each and every year. The Dodgers have won 11 of the last 12 NL West titles. The lone exception was back in 2021, and the Dodgers still won 106 games that year.

The Dodgers have won the division handily in each of the three years since, racking up 100+ wins in all three seasons. Whether they can get to triple digits this season remains to be seen, but their chances of winning the division are quite good.

Key Games to Watch

As if things weren't already favoring the Dodgers in the NL West, they happen to have one of the easiest remaining schedules in the majors. In fact, they have the second-easiest remaining schedule in the majors per Tankathon.

At this point, all Dodgers fans should really care about in terms of their NL West odds is how they do against teams within the division. One matchup in particular could have major implications.

The Diamondbacks and Padres are fighting for second place in the NL West, and the victor in that race could potentially be determined by how the Dodgers play against both of them.

The Dodgers hope that the games at the end of September against the Padres won't mean much, but if they hit a bit of a rough patch leading up to the matchup, perhaps we'll see Los Angeles clinch another division title against their rivals. The bottom line is the better Los Angeles plays down the stretch, the sooner they'll clinch another division title.