Dolphins' difficult decision on Tua Tagovailoa comes with intriguing wrinkle

After a blazing start to the season, the Miami Dolphins season has come to an abrupt and bitter cold end.

The Dolphins' offense scorched their opponents for a league-leading 401.3 yards per game during the 2023 NFL regular season. They averaged 29.2 points per game, second-most in the NFL. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa led the league in passing yards (4,624), becoming the first Dolphins player to accomplish the feat since Hall of Fame quarterback Dan Marino in 1992. The numbers alone are impressive, but they capture the tale of two vastly different teams: the early-season Dolphins and the late-season Dolphins.

In September, the Dolphins offense was on a historic pace. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa led the most explosive unit in the league to an average of nearly 500 yards per game. Miami's early-season fireworks included a 70-20 undressing of the Denver Broncos in Week 3, which tied the 1950 Los Angeles Rams for the second-most points scored in a single game in NFL history. Only the 1966 Washington team scored more (72 points).

As Miami's explosive offensive unit spurred the team to a 7-3 record, observers began to wonder if they were witnessing one of the most prolific offenses in NFL history.

Then, the Dolphins began to sputter.

Miami had a 3-3 record in December, which followed the 2022 Dolphins' 1-5 record in December. It suggests a troublesome trend for head coach Mike McDaniel, whose teams have struggled to keep pace with the rest of the league when the weather changes and pressure mounts.

Despite all of the historic praise being sung about the Dolphins' offense, the warning signs were there all along. While Miami looked like a juggernaut against inferior teams, they struggled to keep pace against formidable opponents. The Dolphins won just one of their seven regular season games against playoff teams. Their offense had underwhelming performances in all seven of those games — they never scored more than 22 points and averaged just 15.1 points per game.

With that in mind, it should have been no surprise that the Dolphins' offense mustered just seven points on 11 possessions, displaying none of the dynamic firepower that would be expected from a team with their regular season statistical output. Similarly, though Tagovailoa's statistics suggest that he was one of the best quarterbacks this season, it should come as no surprise that his future in Miami may be in doubt.

Dolphins can punt long-term decision on Tua Tagovailoa

"One of the significant decisions that the Miami Dolphins will have to make this offseason involves their quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who's headed into the last year of his contract — the fifth-year option that the team picked up last year for just over $23 million," ESPN's Adam Schefter said. " ... They can have him ride that out, although I'm sure he wouldn't be thrilled about that, but that would cast questions about his future with the team."

In theory, the Dolphins could still control Tagovailoa's rights for the next three seasons — he's under contract for his fifth-year option, and Miami would have the capability of franchise-tagging him twice.

Tua, of course, wouldn't be happy with that. The other quarterbacks drafted near the top of the 2020 NFL Draft have already been extended by their respective teams. The Cincinnati Bengals paid Joe Burrow an average of $55 million a year, while the Los Angeles Chargers gave Justin Herbert an extension for $52 million a year. Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love may even receive a contract extension before Tagovailoa.

Head coach Mike McDaniel and general manager Chris Grier may have to decide if they are willing to commit to Tagavailoa long-term or if they would prefer a different quarterback to guide Miami out of its winter slumps.

Spotrac’s market estimation of a Tagovailoa extension comes in as a six-year contract worth $302.8 million, with a $50.4 AAV. That contract would be the fifth-highest among all NFL players.

That's a big investment, particularly when the Dolphins finished the season on a three-game losing streak that cost them a home playoff game and, ultimately, their season.

Moving on from Tagovailoa for the 2024 NFL season would be difficult considering his $23 million fifth-year option is fully guaranteed. Having that much cap space invested into the quarterback position would make it difficult to bring in a quarterback on a lucrative contract during free agency.

The best option for Miami may be to put off any extension negotiations and reassess the quarterback position after next season. Still, it may not be a bad idea to draft a developmental prospect as they potentially prepare to search for their next franchise quarterback.