Eagles Week 1 predictions: A business trip to Sao Paulo

2024 is the year we learn about the Philadelphia Eagles. We’re going to learn about Nick Sirianni’s competency and impact as a CEO head coach. We’re going to learn about Jalen Hurts’ ability to call protections. We’re going to learn about Howie Roseman’s decisions in the draft and free agency. We’re going to learn exactly how much Jason Kelce meant to the team’s success. 

The point is that we’re going to learn a lot and a Week 1 game against the Green Bay Packers is an early test. They’re a team with a good offense, a question mark of a defense, and terrible special teams. It’ll be interesting to see how that matches up with the Eagles’ good offense, a question mark of a defense, and good special teams.

It’s an acclimation period for the Eagles offense and defense

There’s a lot of ‘new’ for the Eagles. It’s not just players and coaches, but new responsibilities as well. A few drives in the preseason for the starters on offense would’ve probably helped a little bit, but here we are. It might take a second for everything to fully gel. Let’s just hope it happens at some point in Week 1.

Week 1 details: Where and when to watch

The Eagles play the Green Bay Packers at Arena Corinthians in Sao Paulo, Brazil on Friday, September 6, 2024, at 8:15 pm Eastern. It’s being aired specifically on Peacock and the greater Philadelphia and Green Bay local NBC affiliates. 

Packers offense vs. Eagles defense

The Eagles' defense is vastly different than last year’s which is a good thing. There are five new starters: Bryce Huff (Edge), Zack Baun (LB), Quinyon Mitchell (CB), Kelee Ringo (CB), and C.J. Gardner-Johnson (S). We don’t know about Bryce Huff yet, but everyone else is an upgrade.

The Packers' offense is largely the same as it was last year but a little bit better. There are only two new players, running back Josh Jacobs and right guard Sean Rhyan. Josh Jacobs is an upgrade over long-time Packer, now Viking, Aaron Jones. Sean Rhyan is a downgrade at their right guard position from last year’s Jon Runyan Jr.

What we’re hoping for is that Rhyan can be exposed. If that happens consistently, it will jam up what the Packers are trying to do. That’s important because what the Packers do, they do very well. 

Pre-snap, they’ll manipulate their formations to muddy up their looks and put defenses, more specifically linebackers, in a very tough spot. The Eagles linebackers are the weakest group on the defense by a pretty huge margin. If they get taken advantage of, whether it’s by motion, play-action, or screens that are schemed open, it’s going to be a long night. 

Vic Fangio is new to the Eagles but by no means is he a new to the NFL. We know what his defenses look like and what they can do, and luckily, his scheme has some answers for bad linebacker play. 

Whether it’s safety help, having the linebackers blitz, or straight-up taking linebackers off the field by going nickel or dime, bad linebackers shouldn’t plague the Eagles like they did in 2023. His scheme is pretty complicated, so there might be a bit of an acclimation period. That’ll be exaggerated by the Packers' lethal usage of motion and play-action.

The Packers have a strong passing game and because they don’t have a truly dominant WR1, Jordan Love spreads the ball out to all of his receivers. We don’t know if rookie Quinyon Mitchell is going to be playing inside or outside corner, but wherever he is, you have to imagine Love will test him early.

When he holds up to that test, it’ll turn into the Matt LaFleur playcalling show. He’ll torment the linebackers, which isn’t great, but again, it can be workable.

Vic Fangio’s scheme is built to limit explosive plays, and it will. What his scheme can’t do, is make players tackle. When the ball is in the middle of the field, it can’t be one of those plays where the closest Eagles jersey to the ball is being worn by a fan in the stands. If Fangio’s defense is played correctly, which is where the acclimation period comes into play, players will be in a position to limit the yards after the catch.

The defensive line is going to be very important here. Yes, Sean Rhyan can be beaten, but Jalen Carter is an animal and he can beat just about anybody. Jordan Davis will be fresh and he’ll go back to being a great run-stopper. The real question mark on the Eagles defensive line is edge rusher Bryce Huff. 

A lot has been made about how Huff hasn’t had a full workload and that we don’t know about his ability to stop the run. The Packers are probably curious about that too, so they’ll test him early as well. We’ll get an answer and cross your fingers that it’s a good one.

It’s going to be a tough go for the defense in this game because this is the first time the starters are going to be playing in a full-power Fangio defense in a real game. The Packers are going to score points, and it will probably look kind of ugly at times. However, there should be a good chunk of plays where you say, ‘Oh. Okay. I get what they’re going for here. Once everyone gets this, it’s gonna be sick.’

For reference, last year, in the Dolphins’ first game in the Fangio defense, they let up 34 points to the Chargers. Who was that offensive coordinator? None other than the Eagles' new OC Kellen Moore. How about that for a segue?

Eagles Offense vs. Packers Defense

This is much easier to diagnose for the Eagles. The Packers simply do not have what it takes to be able to cover both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Jaire Alexander is the Packers' best cornerback, but a 5-foot-10, 195-pound guy covering A.J. Brown doesn’t exactly put the fear of God in your heart.

Even if it does, you’re looking at oft-injured and not-super-good Eric Stokes on the other side of the field; just pick on him instead. If there is a real threat in the Packers’ secondary, it’s Xavier McKinney. As a Giant, McKinney has picked off Jalen Hurts three times; two of those were in Week 18 last season. Maybe that’s nothing, but it might be something.

We know all about the high level of talent on the Eagles offense, but it’s the new offense under Kellen Moore that’s relatively unfamiliar. He’s been an OC before, so we have a general idea of what we’ll see, but he’s never been able to use the talent that he has this year. The most important thing to know is that whenever he has a healthy QB1, his offenses crush.

The Packers are a whole different thing. Their new defensive coordinator is Jeff Hafley who *checks notes* was the head coach at Boston College for the past four seasons. 

It’d be dumb to try to assess a coach's success based on what he did at Boston College of all places, so for the sake of not making bad assumptions, let’s say we don’t quite know what we’re going to see out of his defense. 

Based on the talent of his players, we know that the strongest group is their defensive line featuring Kenny Clark and Rashan Gary. It’s tough to call them ‘game wreckers’ but they are very good football players. 

We’re used to the Eagles' offensive line being able to nullify awesome defensive lines, but this year it’s different. This is the first time in a long time that the Eagles won’t definitely have a top-five offensive line. Yeah, it might be really good, but we don’t know that for a fact. 

We’re looking at a new center in Cam Jurgens and once again, a new right guard in Mekhi Becton. Cam Jurgens has been groomed to be Jason Kelce’s replacement, but trying to step right into the shoes of a future Hall of Famer doesn’t sound like the easiest thing to do. On top of that, Mekhi Becton has had a lot of issues with staying healthy. The thing we can hang our hats on is that Jeff Stoutland is the best offensive line coach in the NFL, and if he thinks they’re good, then that means they’re good. 

Behind them is Jalen Hurts. Jalen is amazing, but this year he’s going to be calling the protections which had been Kelce’s job for Jalen’s entire career. There’s no doubt that Jalen will end up getting the hang of that because everything he sets his mind to, he does with psychopathic efficiency… but again, there will be an acclimation period. Maybe that’s a drive or two, or maybe it’s a game or two. 

The immediate issue with this is that at the end of last year, it looked like the Eagles had no idea that defenses were legally allowed to be in the backfield. Protection against blitzes was a PROBLEM.

We’ll find out if Jeff Hafley is a numbskull almost immediately because the best move for the Packers' defense is to blitz Jalen. Then after that, blitz him again, and again, and again until he shows that he can deal with it. 

The Eagles have said that they’ve worked on blitz protection, but unfortunately, the only way truly to find out is with live bullets. Kellen Moore should have answers to the blitz within his offensive scheme, so hopefully, that works.

It’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Eagles' offense doesn’t click at some point during this game. It might not be immediately, but it’ll happen. If all else fails, they should be able to say, ‘Hey, wait. We’re actually like, way more talented than those guys. Why are we letting them do this to us? Hey A.J., next time you’re in man coverage, take that man’s soul.’

Obscure prediction: Something weird always happens in Week 1

In the Eagles 2022 season opener, DeVonta Smith had four targets but zero catches. In the 2023 season opener, Kenneth Gainwell had 14 carries and D’Andre Swift had just one. It feels like something bizarre happens or someone important gets neglected. It feels like that might be Saquon Barkley in this game. 

That’s not to say he’s going to go for fewer than 30 yards or anything like that. It just feels like it might be a handful of strong runs and a short touchdown in the first quarter, but we never see anything explosive.

Team-wide prediction: The offense explodes in Week 1

Sirianni had the right idea in 2023: ‘Let our guys beat their guys,’ but that can only get you so far. You need more. You need a real scheme. Kellen Moore offers that scheme. 

He’ll set the offense up to win. He’ll put playmakers in positions that make football look easy. He’ll be creative in the red zone. The offense will score points. A.J. will get a penalty for taunting. It'll be fun.

Specific prediction: Special teams win the game

The Packers are in a bad situation with their kicker. His name is Brayden Narveson and you’ve never heard of him. That’s because he just joined their team on August 28, 2024. 

He was an undrafted free agent who lost a kicking battle in Tennessee before the Packers picked him up. Brayden has never kicked a field goal in the NFL. Jake Elliott has kicked a hell of a lot of field goals and he does it at an extremely high level.

The Packers and Eagles are playing at Arena Corinthians, and that stadium has two open ends on either side of the field which means wind will play a factor when it comes to field goals.

This game is going to come down to the wire: Vic Fangio is going to call a blitz late in the game that forces the Packers to kick for a win. Brayden Narveson is going to come onto the field and miss a field goal and the Eagles are going to win.