Early returns on Warriors Jordan Poole trade look good for Golden State 

When the Golden State Warriors traded Jordan Poole to the Washington Wizards for Chris Paul, they officially ditched the two timelines strategy and swapped their future for the past. The move carried sizeable risk considering the massive 14-year gap in the two’s ages, but the early returns have been a boon for the Warriors. 

Why Jordan Poole became surplus to requirements for the Warriors

Following a breakout 2021-22 campaign, the Warriors, fresh off a championship, rewarded Jordan Poole with a four-year, $140 million rookie scale extension and ordained him the heir apparent to the splash throne. Poole wasted no time raising concerns that the franchise’s new prince was more of a court jester when he provoked Draymond Green to take up arms, reportedly calling Green “an expensive backpack.” 

The lack of harmony caused by Poole and Green’s skirmish put a dent in the Warriors' title defense. It saw Poole slump on the court, the Warriors won nine fewer games from the season prior, and be ousted in six games in the second round of the playoffs by the Lakers. With salary cap hell looming and the product on the court declining, the Warriors decided that Poole and his $140 million was their greatest internal obstacle to reclaiming the NBA title. 

Instead of trying to extend their championship window out as Stephen Curry approached 40, the Warriors aimed to open the window as wide as possible while he still has MVP upside and targeted one of their chief antagonists from their dynastic past– Chris Paul. 

Chris Paul vs. Jordan Poole

Chris Paul and Jordan Poole couldn’t be more different. Paul is an efficiency god who tactfully mines for every last advantage, while Poole is a loose gunner who can combust at any moment, sinking his opponent or even his own team. And this season, both players have been hyper-concentrated versions of themselves. 

In three games, Poole is averaging 18.7 points, 3.0 assists, and 4.0 turnovers on 7.7 3-point attempts. His ghastly 3-point shooting, 21.7 percent, is holding his scoring down, but so far, the Wizards have gotten the Jordan Poole experience. He’s going to shoot first and turn and face the opposition bench on a miss and cough up far too many turnovers. When it works, he can erupt for 30-plus points, but when it doesn’t, you’re in a serious hole. 

Meanwhile, Paul has mostly been his surgical self. In four games, he’s averaging 11.3 points, 8.3 assists, and 1.5 turnovers on 4.0 3-pointers a game. Like Poole, Paul’s 3-point shooting has been abysmal, he’s one for 16 from beyond the arc, but so far, the Warriors have enjoyed the steady guidance Paul provides. An assist-to-turnover ratio of five and a half to one is elite and will offset just about any shooting struggles. 

The floor that Paul’s surgical passing provides over Poole’s loose and fast attitude with the ball shows up in their offensive rating. The pair have similar effective field goal percentages at 43.3-percent for Poole and 41.1-percent for Paul, but Paul has an offensive rating of 114, while Poole clocks in at 87. 

From just a statistical standpoint, Paul has started the season off far better than Poole, which is a win for the Warriors. But the real benefit goes beyond the two’s box scores and how Paul can dramatically change the scoreboard in a way Poole cannot.  

The Chris Paul effect

Making too much out of four games is a recipe for disaster, but when a player like Chris Paul is involved, who has an extensive track record of excellence, sometimes four games are all you need. The Warriors sit at 3-1 with a net rating of plus-10.8, and Paul has been the key to their elite on-court production. 

For as great as the Warriors have been, their Achilles heel has always been their inability to generate offense with Curry on the bench. Between the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons, the Warriors posted an offensive rating of 118.0 with Curry on the court and an offensive rating of 111.3 when he sat. Poole was pegged as the antidote to this affliction, but a decay in shooting efficiency and poor decision-making saw the problem fester. 

Chris Paul is called the point god for a reason, and all it takes is a quick look at his on-off net ratings. For his career, his teams have produced a plus-7.0 net rating with him on the court, and in 120 minutes this season, he’s at a mind-blowing plus-20.0. While the Warriors’ offense has declined without Curry this season, the magnitude has been far more palatable. With Curry on the court, they’re scorching opponents for a 116.8 offensive rating, plus-6.2 over the league average, and when he sits, it has only declined to 114.6.

The Warriors being able to deploy two of the most impactful point guards in league history for all of five minutes this season, unsurprisingly, has been a winning strategy. In 60 minutes, with Curry and Paul on the court, they’ve produced a comical 125.4 offensive rating, and with just Paul on the court, also 60 minutes, they’ve come in at 115.8. Oddly, in the 67 Curry only minutes, the Warriors’ offensive rating has been a pedestrian 109.2, but considering history, that’s bound to improve. 

How Chris Paul can give the Warriors a new edge in the Playoffs

The Warriors’ decision to exchange Jordan Poole for Chris Paul should also give them a tactical advantage in a playoff series. The bread and butter of the Warriors’ offense will always be built around the perpetual threat and motion of Curry’s off-ball gravity. While most teams are built around a player who is dangerous on the ball and sucks defenses in, only to break them through sheer scoring prowess or kick outs, the Warriors utilize Curry’s gravity off the ball to scramble the defense through a gauntlet of off-ball screens and movement. The offense isn't heliocentric in that one player dominates the ball, but it is heliocentric in that one player’s gravity ties everything together. 

Paul doesn’t operate like that. He’s an on-ball pick-and-roll passing genius. The Warriors play fast and loose around Curry, but with Paul, they can play slow and methodically, and you can already see the impact. Last season, the Warriors had the worst turnover rate in the league at 14.1 percent. This season, it stands at 12.7 percent, a few fractions of a percent better than the league average, and Paul deserves a ton of credit. With Paul on the court, the Warriors have coughed up 12.2 turnovers per 100 possessions, but that figure balloons to 19.1 when he sits. 

The Warriors won four championships built around Curry’s chaos-inducing movement, but outside of their three-season stint with Kevin Durant, they’ve never had a viable change-of-pace option. If Curry is the Warriors’ fastball, then Paul is their change-up. It might not be as dominant of a pitch, but playing off the fastball it can be highly effective, and it even makes the fastball play up a level. 

The early returns on the Chris Paul for Jordan Poole trade have been spectacular for the Warriors. Poole was more of the same but far less deadly, while Paul provides a new dangerous look and solves one of the Warriors’ oldest problems. Last season, the Warriors looked like a dynasty in decline, and while their far-out future might not be quite as bright, that’s the cost of resurrecting a champion.