3 reasons why Elly De La Cruz is a viable MVP candidate, 4 reasons why he isn't

It goes without saying, Elly De La Cruz is one of the most electric and exciting players in the MLB. His lightning speed and power from both sides of the plate make him an all-around baseball threat.

Since coming up last year, he has hit 34 HR and stole 94 bases in 934 plate appearances. While he undoubtedly has a wide-reaching skillset, his might not be the first name that comes to mind when we think of the words “NL MVP.” But there are at least two people who think so.

In an MVP poll taken on MLB.com, 45 voters weighed in on who they thought should win the MVP awards in both leagues. In the NL, Shohei Ohtani ran away with it garnering 37 first-place votes, Ketel Marte came in second with six, and Elly De La Cruz rounded out the first-place vote getters with two.

Elly De La Cruz almost certainly won’t be the NL MVP this year, but that doesn’t mean his two first-place voters aren’t onto something. Is Elly a viable MVP candidate? Before we get into to it, we need to define some parameters. When talking about an MVP candidate, the bar is set higher. If a player hits 35 HR in a year, that would be considered very good, but this alone can’t win anyone an MVP award. To be an MVP, a player must excel doing at least one thing and hold his own elsewhere.

With that established, let’s explore De La Cruz’s qualifications.

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The case for Elly De La Cruz

1. Speed

De La Cruz’s one skill that trounces all other current players besides Ronald Acuna Jr (on IL for the season) is his speed. This year, De La Cruz has stolen 59 bags, way ahead of the pack. Shohei Ohtani and Brice Turang come in a distant second with 33 SBs each. In addition, De La Cruz leads the league in baserunning runs above average (BsR), something often overlooked.

While impressive, speed usually isn’t a metric most MVP voters focus on. His prowess on the bases will likely only come in handy if aided by other standard metrics. Luckily, De La Cruz has some other important qualifications hidden up his sleeves.

2. WAR

Using FanGraphs’ WAR metric, we notice Elly De La Cruz has the second-highest WAR value in the NL with a 5.7, just below Ohtani’s 5.8. Total WAR is a measurement that combines both offensive and defensive numbers in a calculation to determine a player’s overall value. Considering Ohtani doesn’t play a position this year, his negative defensive WAR (def WAR) number isn’t surprising and is the reason his WAR is hampered. While Ohtani is a great hitter, De La Cruz is very good at both hitting and fielding. This leads us to another topic De La Cruz excels in.

3. Defense

When it comes to defense, Elly De La Cruz is one of the best. He currently ranks fourth in def WAR in the NL with a 12.5. He is also tied for fifth in the NL in outs above average (OOA) with 11. While there doesn’t appear to be a question as to De la Cruz’s ability to field shortstop, this comes down to the same problem as speed.

Defense, while it may give a player an edge over a DH, still doesn’t account for much when it comes to MVP voting. In the end, HR, AVG, and OBP will likely win the day, but being a good fielder does boost De La Cruz’s chances if it comes close in other categories.

The case against Elly De La Cruz

1. Strikeout total

It’s not absolutely disqualifying, but there are consequences when you do not put the ball in play. Elly De La Cruz’s 160 K’s this season are the most of any player in the MLB. His .313 strikeout percentage is the fourth-highest in baseball, and third-highest in the National League. It’s a trait commonly shared by power hitters, but if you are going to strike out like a power hitter, you’re going to need to produce like one. Does Elly De La Cruz produce like a power hitter?

2. Home run total

So far this season, De La Cruz has notched 21 HR through 451 ABs giving him an AB/HR ratio 21.48. While good, it does not justify the strikeout total. But ignoring the strikeouts, is this good enough to win De La Cruz an MVP award? Not on its own. When crowning an MVP whose home run total is his strongest claim to the throne, the player in question should have a great number, not merely a good one.

If De La Cruz was going to win an MVP based strongly on his home run total, he would need more. De La Cruz is currently tied for 13th in the NL in HR count. Still, his decent home run total can put him over the top if his other numbers are phenomenal. So, are his other numbers phenomenal?

3. Slash line

De La Cruz is currently slashing .264/.348/.494 with a .842 OPS. Off the bat, his .264 average is not overwhelmingly impressive. His .348 OBP, however, is really good. That ranks him 13th in the NL in on-base percentage. But this won’t get him across the finish line as long as Ketel Marte and Shohei Ohtani are still ahead of him.

Among his other impressive numbers is his slugging percentage. De La Cruz maintains a .494 SLG which ranks him sixth in the NL, but still behind his main competition. His 27 doubles and seven triples have aided his SLG greatly. His .842 OPS is ranked eighth in the NL, again, behind his main competitors.

4. Weighted runs created plus  

As long as we’re measuring WAR, we might as well touch on another advanced metric: weighted runs created plus (wRC+), which measures runs a player creates and takes into account the ballpark conditions and era. In this metric, a value of 100 is league average.

Elly De La Cruz maintains a wRC+ of 130 (30 percent better than league average). This ranks him ninth in the NL. While great, an MVP should be the best. De La Cruz’s wRC+ still lags behind the same players he needs to surpass. Quite a few advanced metrics work in De La Cruz’s favor, but this is not one of them.

Is Elly De La Cruz a viable NL MVP candidate?

Elly De La Cruz is without a doubt a phenom who is having a great year. But when talking about the MVP, we need to be talking about the best. Unfortunately, Elly De La Cruz does not meet that mark. His low average and high strikeout rate have truly hindered his chances.

While not a viable candidate this year, Elly De La Cruz has an undeniable set of talents that might make him a future MVP. Keep an eye on him. Should his contact skills improve, we’ll see a brand new Elly De La Cruz.