Will Eric Holt 'shock the world' in the 800m at the US Olympic Trials?

Eric Holt was the most-talked-about unsponsored athlete heading into the U.S. Olympic Trials, which started on Friday. In his last 1500m race before the Trials, the 29-year-old finished four hundredths of a second behind 2022 World Champion Jake Wightman, beating the rest of a field packed with Olympic hopefuls.

At the Trials, though, Holt had a bad race in the semifinals of the 1500m and failed to advance. He made comments to the media following his exit that again got people talking.

Holt hadn't traveled to Eugene just to run the 1500m at the Trials, he had also qualified to contest the 800m. In his post-race interview with Citius Mag where he lamented his poorly executed 1500m race, he made a bold prediction: I deserved not to qualify... I'm about to shock the world and I feel like I'm gonna do an event I'm better at.

He went on to say that he had recently set a PR of 1:45[.89] in the 800m and that he was in 1:44 shape. 1:44.70 is the Olympic standard for the event, and running under 1:45 is usually sufficient to finish in the top three qualifying places at USAs. The message behind Eric Holt's "shock the world" statement is clear: he thinks he will make the final in the 800m in the Trials, he thinks he will finish in the top three in the final, and he thinks he will dip under the Olympic standard on his way there.

Can Eric Holt shock the world and produce the most satisfying underdog story of the Trials?

On Wednesday, Citius Mag reported that Eric Holt was no longer without a sponsorship. He had signed a pro contract with Puma. Going into the first round of the 800m, the question is whether the humble Empire Elite athlete now running for a brand commonly associated with Usain Bolt has the speed necessary to triumph against the fastest middle-distance runners in the country.

Thirty-six men are running the 800m at the trials. Ranking those who are running by season's bests, Holt is 19th. The Trials 800m proceeds in three stages, which mimic the Olympic Games: first round, semifinals, and finals. The field size shrinks from 36 in four heats to 27 in three semis to nine in the final. Those men in the final battle for the top three spots — if all three men have the Olympic standard, that's the team. The selection committee cannot make discretionary picks if a favorite athlete has a bad race.

In assessing Holt's chances of shocking the world, there is more at play than the sweet prospect of what his coach describes as an "All-American ending." To his advantage, Holt has a strong upper body and demands space, partially due to his wide arm carriage. In middle distance races, this physicality helps him kick hard and execute a race plan on his terms.

To his disadvantage, the tendency to "fight" (note that Holt struck a fighting stance in his Puma announcement picture) and remain in close contact with other runners wastes valuable energy and leaves him exposed during tactical races. He cited this in his 1500m post-race interview.

As a whole, men's 800m races are less tactical than 1500m races. An elite 800m race likely features one "move." An elite 1500m race could have two or even three moves. Frequently adjusting pace and spending too much time jockeying for position can wear out an athlete before the final kick to the finish line.

What's intriguing about Holt's claim about being a better 800m runner is not his admission that he is a poor tactician, it's that he hasn't posted the times to prove it yet. His 800m best of 1:45.89 is not as competitive as his 3:34.05 1500m. Further, the type of mid-distance runner who, like Holt, ran cross country in college, typically does not possess the same top speed of 400/800 runners or 800m specialists. When an 800m race does slow down, it's a burst of speed that a miler could only dream of that wins it.

Runners in their late 20s or early 30s tend to move in the opposite direction: from the 800m to the 1500m or from the 1500m to the 5000m. It's rare to see an athlete make such a confident, seemingly contradictory statement in an interview, yet Eric Holt's progression and belief in his potential gives rise to the theory that he isn't being delusional. It's plausible that his 1:45.89 first-place finish from June 1 is not indicative of what he could throw down against faster competition. Last year, he ran 1:46.44. The year before, 1:48.97.

Holt has warmed up with two 1500m races; he's now a bonafide professional running for Puma, and he possesses what's becoming a trademark fighter's mentality and fighting stance expressed in his emphatic arm swing. Some of the other professionals he'll be lining up against have already competed at the highest level, and they'll be his stiffest competition.

Bryce Hoppel is far and away the US favorite and is a true medal threat at the Olympics. Behind him is the bold Isaiah Jewett, Olympic medalist Clayton Murphy, Brandon Miller, and 800m specialist Isaiah Harris. The collegiate contingent includes two wildcards in Texas A&M's Sam Whitmarsh (1:44.46) and Virginia's Shane Cohen (1:44.97). 1500m Olympic qualifier Hobbs Kessler returns for the 800m, fully aware that Eric Holt beat him in the 1500m earlier in June. If all of these men make the final, that leaves one spot open for Eric Holt.

Speculation is attached to Holt because, in most cases, an 800m runner can be assessed using past-season performances, maybe even college performances, 400m races, and time trials in distances like the 600m. In Holt's case, college might as well have been a lifetime ago. His times from last year are rendered largely irrelevant by his 2024 progression. There is no evidence of his raw 400m speed. His history of competing in rounds of the 800m is, by all measures, non-existent. Fans of Eric Holt are left to take him at his 1:45.89, and his word.

In one scenario, Holt easily qualifies for the semifinals but then is the first man out in a PR in 1:45.5 or so. In another scenario, he shocks the world. The first round in the men's 800m takes place at 7:30 p.m. EST on Thursday, June 27. Eric Holt will run in heat three, wearing Puma spikes.