Even Ben Verlander doesn’t think his brother should be a lock for Astros postseason rotation

The Houston Astros face a rather unexpected conundrum ahead of the 2024 playoffs. Should Justin Verlander start in October?

For about the last two decades, there has been no doubting Verlander's capacity on the mound. He made his first All-Star game in 2007, his second full season at the MLB level. Then, on the verge of his 40th birthday in 2022, Verlander won a Cy Young award and notched his first World Series victory as Houston's primary ace.

Verlander's longevity is unmatched among present-day pitchers. He is arguably the greatest ace of his generation and until a few months ago, Verlander pitching high-leverage innings for the Astros in October felt like a foregone conclusion.

These last couple weeks, however, have challenged that very notion. Verlander recently made his return to the rotation after a two-month absence related to a neck injury. The output has been fairly dire since. Across 17.2 innings, Verlander has allowed 27 hits, seven walks, and 19 earned runs. He has a 9.68 ERA with an opposing OPS of .982 (yikes!).

Ask your local Astros fan, and Verlander probably shouldn't start in the playoffs. He has an unmatched resumé, but October baseball is a 'what have ya done for me lately' situation. The Astros can't afford to let Verlander figure it out once the playoffs arrive. They need a three-man rotation that will perform, without hiccup.

Ask Ben Verlander, however, and there is at least some optimism that Justin will figure it out. It is telling, however, that even the ace's younger brother won't fully commit to advocating for Justin as a postseason lock.

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Ben Verlander defends his brother, but won't fully endorse Justin Verlander as Astros postseason starter

"I don't think he's a lock right now to make the playoff rotation," says Ben Verlander.

That alone should probably settle the debate. If you can't win your own family's endorsement, you're probably not ready to start games in the postseason.

That said, Ben does invariably lobby Houston fans to reconsider their attitude toward the 41-year-old, three-time Cy Young winning ace. Sure, Justin Verlander is in a slump, but the circumstances are worth noting. He spent two months iced on the bench with an injury, then he was quickly reinstated at the MLB level. It generally takes time for pitchers to establish their rhythm after so much time out of commission. Especially those in the over-40 demographic.

Verlander does have a few more starts on the docket before the playoffs start. If he can round into form in the nick of time, maybe the Astros feel confident enough to start the future Hall of Fame righty in October. That said, it would take a monumental effort at this point. Houston is not short on dynamic starting pitching right now.

Framber Valdez and Yusei Kikuchi are the real postseason locks in Houston's rotation. There is a heavily contested battle for the No. 3 slot between Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown, and maybe even Spencer Arrighetti. All have ERAs below 5.00 this season — Blanco's rests a tick below 3.00 — while Verlander, even encompassing a more solid start to the campaign, has a net 5.30 ERA.

Sure, we have counted out Verlander before, only to be proven wrong, as Ben notes. And yes, it's fair to say that Verlander has earned the benefit of the doubt after such a long, successful career. The Astros, in Ben's mind, should give the elder Verlander a few more starts to work his magic before officially pulling the plug on the playoffs. Ben, naturally, is confident in Justin's ability to figure it out on a deadline.

Frankly, Ben Verlander's take is impressively measured on the whole. He does gas up his brother quite a bit, but it's not like Justin hasn't earned it. Ben admits that Justin has not earned a postseason spot yet, but believes that he could get there eventually.

Only time will tell. Justin's velocity is down and his command has cratered in recent weeks, so it has been hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel. If there's any 41-year-old starter that can defy Father Time and pull off a miraculous late-season turnaround, however, it's probably Verlander.