Every playoff contender's x-factor to reach the postseason

With less than two months in the regular season, the genuine contenders for the postseason are emerging and will continue to pull away as time passes.

With that being said, every postseason contender has that one player who, should they step up, can help take their respective team from good to great.

Here is every playoff contender's x-factor to reach the postseason in 2024.

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Arizona Diamondbacks, Corbin Carroll

Coming off a Rookie of the Year campaign just a season ago, Corbin Carroll has struggled to find his mark in 2024. Still batting sub .220, Carroll's sophomore year has been brutal and a far cry from where he was just a season ago. Heading into August last year, Carroll slashed .281/.360/.538 with 21 HRs, 58 RBIs, and 25 stolen bases. The Diamondbacks are currently 1.5 games up in the 3rd Wild Card spot, so Carroll, returning to the production level he recorded last season, will likely see the D-Backs become a shoo-in for the postseason.

Atlanta Braves, Max Fried

Coming off the IL recently for the Atlanta Braves, Max Fried can be a massive boost for their rotation, consisting of Chris Sale and the ailing Reynaldo Lopez. This season, Atlanta has been ravaged by injuries, including those to Ronald Acuna Jr, Spencer Strider, and most recently, Ozzie Albies. An All-Star season for Fried this year, he needs to stay healthy for Atlanta to remain in a Wild Card spot. It's unlikely they will catch the Phillies, and it will be interesting to see what they can do the rest of the way.

Baltimore Orioles, Trevor Rogers

Given how much the Baltimore Orioles gave up to pry Trevor Rogers from Miami, he needs to step up in the second half and help stabilize the starting rotation. Given that Rogers has only had one good season and has been league-average at best in his other seasons, a lot of pressure will be on his shoulders moving forward. Things did not go as planned in his first start as an Orioles. He gave up five earned runs over just 4.1 frames, scattering six hits and allowing three walks. His second outing was better, allowing two earned over five innings.

At the time of writing, the Orioles are tied with the Yankees in the win column, and they can't afford for an already ailing rotation to falter, with Rogers being a poor deadline addition. We spoke about the prospect currency in which Baltimore had to give up and how adding a little more to land a better pitcher was warranted, given that their World Series window is open right now. This is not the time for Baltimore to be overly conservative with prospects, especially for pitchers who have ultimately underperformed in their careers when the starting rotation is your most significant area of concern.

Boston Red Sox, Tristan Casas

The Boston Red Sox have done a superb job climbing back up the standings as the season continues. Now, they are set to get slugging first baseman Tristan Casas back before long, as he finished rehabbing from a cartilage tear in his ribs a few months ago. Before he went down, Casas slashed .244/.344/.513 with six homers in only 22 games, putting him on pace for a 40+ home run campaign if he stayed healthy all year.

Getting Casas, a potential star in the making, back will be critical. He is currently in Triple-A, getting some games under his belt before returning to the big league team. Although he is not pain-free, he seems ready to play through it and help Boston go on a playoff push for the remainder of the year. It hasn't been said precisely when he'll be back yet, but it won't be long before he's back to knocking balls out of the park at Fenway,

Cleveland Guardians, Gavin Williams

Overall, The Cleveland Guardians are set to make a postseason run this year. They have a fantastic offense and two very efficient started in Tanner Bibee and Blake Lively. That is why their X-factor comes down to Gavin Williams, who can catapult this team into an even stronger contender if he plays well.

Currently, Williams has a 4.97 ERA after getting roughed up by Baltimore. His numbers are still swinging wildly, given that he's only pitched 33 innings at the major league level, considering he was sitting at a 3.72 before his most recent appearance. The Guardians need another strong starting pitcher to stabilize their rotation. They managed not to let Shane Bieber's injury early in the year stop them from competing. At 20 games above .500, all they have to do now is keep their foot on the gas. But players like Williams stepping up and helping them go on a deep playoff run are critical now.

Houston Astros, Justin Verlander

Since coming off the IL, Justin Verlander had found himself amid a somewhat down season for his standards. Houston's rotations sit in the bottom five of the AL, but future hall-of-famer Verlander getting shelved back in early June didn't stop the Astros from clawing their way up the AL West standings, where they currently 1.0 games behind Seattle for first place.

Yesterday, Verlander threw a two-inning sim game, reaching 94 mph on his heater over his 37 thrown pitches. Although he will still require minor-league rehab starts before returning, it's an encouraging sign that he at least felt good. He can anchor this starting rotation if his neck issues are behind him. He is likely to be back in late August; it will be interesting to see what he can still bring to the table heading into the postseason. The Astros need him back, healthy, and effective to take the AL West crown.

Kansas City Royals, James McArthur

The Kansas City Royals have been a pleasant dark horse this season as they are eyeing a postseason berth in what most likely would come in the form of a Wild Card. With a starting rotation and an MVP candidate in Bobby Witt Jr. leading the way offensively, KC's bullpen will need to stay intact, and a big part of that will be closing out games with James McArthur.

McArthur owns an underwhelming 5.32 ERA but has 18 saves on the season. The Royals, in general, only have the 10th-best bullpen in the American League. After McArthur blew a save on Saturday night, allowing two runs in the 11th against the Tigers, the ball was turned over to Hunter Harvey in the next game, who did manage to slam the door in the night and convert his first save of the season. McArthur had a 3.99 ERA in the first half, but he has since given up nine earned runs in 5.2 innings in the second half. That will need to change, as his production is vital to the Royals' postseason chances.

Los Angeles Dodgers, Clayton Kershaw

After returning from IL recently, long-time ace Clayton Kershaw has yet to find his mark in 2024. He currently owns a 5.84 ERA after his first two starts, but it's feasible that he likely needs time to knock the rust off. The Los Angeles Dodgers sit atop the NL West again with a record of 65-47 but are only 4.5 games above the San Diego Padres. Kershaw getting back closer to his career 2.49 ERA is going to lock the division up for L.A.

The Dodgers are in the middle of the pack in terms of the strength of the remaining schedule, so Kershaw should have ample opportunity to fine-tune his mechanics ahead of the postseason. Moving into the playoffs, however, Kershaw's 4.49 postseason ERA has been underwhelming in an otherwise hall-of-fame trajectory. They added Jack Flaherty at the deadline, and their rotation is currently 5th best in the NL. Kershaw returning to form now only increases the likelihood that L.A. makes a deep run this postseason.

Milwaukee Brewers, Christian Yelich

Given that the Milwaukee Brewers are sitting pretty atop the NL Central, Christian Yelich's chronic back issues flaring up is not a good sign for the team moving forward. It's yet to be determined if Yelich undergoes season-ending surgery, but if he does, the chances of the Brewers capitalizing on another NL Central crown begin to fall. However, they are still a well-rounded team with a sizeable lead. There is no current timetable for Yelich's return, but his .315/.406/.504 slash with 21 stolen bases will be sorely missed until he's back.

Minnesota Twins, Pablo Lopez

Not long ago, Pablo Lopez was producing at a near-ace level for Miami and Minnesota. From 2020-2023, he produced a 3.57 ERA, including a 3.66 ERA last year with 234 punchouts. This year, however, he has a 4.74 ERA after his latest outing against the Cubs, and he has been in the worst season of his career since 2019. Still, the Twins are in second place in their division with a record of 63-49, just four games behind Cleveland for the Division lead.

It's not an impossible hill to climb by any means, but production from someone like Lopez will be essential if the Twins are to topple the Guardians in the standings. With any faltering, the Twins may find their 2.0 game lead quickly reduced to nothing in the Wild Card race. They don't have much room for error, so getting someone to perform at the level he has been accustomed to for the previous four seasons is critical at this stage.

New York Mets, Pete Alonso

Pete Alonso for the New York Mets is not having the season he envisioned for himself after hiring Scott Boras as his agent and betting on himself in 2024 to receive a monster deal in free agency this winter. He's currently sitting on 25 HRs and 63 RBIs, which isn't terrible, but it's a far cry from the pace he is accustomed to. Hitting at least 40 in each of the last two seasons, it does not appear that Alonso will reach the same plateau for the third straight season, which does not bode well for the Mets, who are currently in and out of the Wild Card picture.

The Mets need Alonso to lock in and start hitting more balls out of the ballpark. Alonso needs to lock in if he expects a multi-year deal this winter. For an aging first baseman, teams will be less keen to ink him to a long-term contract, especially when his defense ranks among the bottom of the league with minus-6 Outs Above Average and minus-4 Runs Prevented. His production now is crucial to the Mets' playoff chances.

New York Yankees, Gerrit Cole

Gerrit Cole has been an ace for some time in MLB. From 2018-2013, Cole averaged a 2.93 ERA, earning him five All-Star appearances, one Cy Young, 1,418 strikeouts in 1,076.2 innings pitched, and one massive contract when he signed with the New York Yankees. This year, however, Cole has been unable to find his groove since returning from injury, and although the Yankees are likely on their way to the postseason, Cole's performance has actually hindered the team since he came back.

Cole currently sports an underwhelming 5.09 ERA in the 40.1 innings he has tossed this season. His 1.402 WHIP is the highest since 2016, and the advanced metrics aren't kind to him this season, either. His expected ERA of 4.94 is still high, along with his FIP of 5.09, suggesting zero bad luck along the way. Given that his problems this season are self-induced, it goes without saying how important turning it around is for the Yankees to make a deep playoff run. If he turns it around and gets back to his former self, you're looking at a team that has everything it needs to win a World Series.

Philadelphia Phillies, Ranger Suarez

All season long, Ranger Suarez has been someone we were surprised to find as much success as he has. Once, he got injured in late July with back issues flaring up, and it became apparent that the Philadelphia Phillies would need to lean on Suarez, who had been exactly who he had been all season before the injury. With a 10-5 record and a 2.87 ERA, Suarez has been every bit just the ace that Zach Wheeler has. Back issues, however, can be tricky, but the news is optimistic moving forward.

Suarez has thrown a couple of bullpen sessions, most recently on Aug. 8, topping out at 36 pitched. Rob Thomson stated the bullpen session went well, but it will likely be a bit before Suarez returns to the rotation. He still needs to face live hitters and go on a rehab assignment, so he's likely still a couple of weeks away. The good news for Philly is that he will be back and fully healthy for the postseason push, which should see the team locking up the NL East before long.

San Diego Padres, Joe Musgrove

Joe Musgrove has not exactly been the best version of himself in 2024. Sidelined since late May, Musgrove is set to return to the Padres' rotation next week, and the team needs him to be productive down the stretch. Before going down with injury, Musgrove has recorded an underwhelming 5.66 ERA. Injury certainly could have played a factor, and all that won't matter if he comes back strong down the stretch.

The Padres already boast the fifth-best starting rotation in the NL, and that can only get stronger with a healthy Musgrove back in the fold. From 2020-2023, Musgrove's 3.12 ERA is ace-level, and bringing that production in now acts the same way it would as if they just brought in another strong pitcher at the deadline. He is a strong reinforcement waiting to happen. He is not fully stretched out, throwing just 41 pitching in a recent outing in High-A, but that's to be expected. It will be perfect timing for the Padres to get him 100 percent with the playoffs around the corner.

Seattle Mariners, Randy Arozarena

The Seattle Mariners made a big splash at the trade deadline, acquiring slugger Randy Arozarena in the Tampa Bay Rays' fire sale to help with their offensive woes. Sitting at just 3.92 runs per game (28th), the Mariners needed to add offensive firepower to couple with its outstanding starting rotation. Before the trade, Arozarena was slashing a horrid .211/.318/.394, but Seattle's recognizing he was turning the corner paid off handsomely.

Since the trade, Arozarena has slashed .293/.408/.463 in 41 at-bats as a Mariner. Seattle will need it to continue down the stretch, but this is precisely what they needed to add to their ailing offense that sits nearly dead last in MLB. Arozarena's charismatic personality can be a spark plug to any team, and Seattle will likely start feeding off each other from an offensive standpoint if Arozarena stays hot. They are one percentage point behind Houston for first place in the AL West.

St. Louis Cardinals, Paul Goldschmidt

Last but not least, we come to longtime slugger Paul Goldschmidt. The Cardinals are currently two games above .500 but 2.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot in the National League. Goldschmidt is having a down season, slashing just .229/.288/.382 with 17 HRs and 45 RBIs. Those numbers are absurdly low for Goldschmidt, who has amassed seven All-Star appearances, an MVP, five Silver Slugger awards, and an average batting line of .295/.392/.523 since 2013.

Goldschmidt's career is Hall of Fame worthy, but the season he is having is one we can all forget in a hurry. If they wish to compete for a postseason spot this year, the Cardinals need him to figure out what's going wrong quickly. They will likely have to compete in a crowded Wild Card picture, as the Brewers and their seven-game lead are pulling away with the NL Central.