Every Power Four team that has all but eliminated itself from the College Football Playoff race
By John Buhler
There is always next year, or not... Some of these college football teams I am about to touch on are so hopelessly bad that next year might be even worse. We are only one month through the season, yet nearly a quarter of the entire Power Four has effectively been eliminated from any serious conversations about making the College Football Playoff. Even more should be crossed off soon...
Look. I am not going to harpoon the Group of Five teams for not being playoff caliber. Getting in out of that level should be seen as a massive accomplishment, not as failure for failing to get essentially one guaranteed spot annually. As for the Power Four, each league has a different standard for getting teams in. As it is with anything to do with college football, nothing is created equally. Remember that.
So what I am going to do today is identify precisely how many teams in the Power Four who have been effectively been eliminated from playoff contention. Some are more obvious than others, while some who are not included in this exercise are merely straddling the fence and are about to fall over into the yard of those who won't receive College Football Playoff bids from the Selection Committee.
Right now, I have 16 teams in the Power Four I can safely say will not make the playoff this season.
ACC
At this time, I feel safe about crossing off six teams who play in the ACC, with others nearly out of it.
Florida State Seminoles (1-4) (1-3)
No team has been a greater disappointment through five weeks than the hapless Florida State Seminoles. Not only did they start the year out in an 0-3 hole, but two of those three losses came in ACC play to Georgia Tech and Boston College. While they did beat Cal, they just lost to SMU. At 1-4 and 1-3 in ACC play, the Seminoles have virtually no shot of getting to Charlotte this year in the ACC.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3-2) (1-2)
Georgia Tech has a brutal schedule. Despite getting the Week 0 win over Florida State in Ireland, they dropped their next two ACC games to Syracuse and Louisville. While both were on the road, Georgia Tech cannot lose another game to have any real shot of getting to Charlotte. Although they beat Georgia State and VMI in the non-conference, they still have to face Georgia and Notre Dame as well.
North Carolina Tar Heels (3-2) (0-1)
Mathematically, there may still be a chance that North Carolina could get in at 3-2, but there last two losses really put the Tar Heels behind the eight ball. Giving up 70 points at home to James Madison in defeat was atrocious. Letting arch rival Duke back in Week 5's loss probably put the nail in Mack Brown's coaching coffin in Chapel Hill. UNC should be able to get to a bowl game, but they are reeling.
North Carolina State Wolfpack (3-2) (0-1)
North Carolina State is in a similar bucket as in-state rival North Carolina. The Wolfpack may be 3-2, but losing to serious College Football Playoff contenders Clemson two weeks ago and Tennessee back in Week 2 in the non-conference removes any margin for error. More importantly, Dave Doeren's team is not as strong as we thought it might be to start the season. This might be only an 8-4 team...
Virginia Tech Hokies (2-3) (0-1)
Through five weeks, Virginia Tech is 2-3 overall, but 0-3 vs. Power Four competition. Losing in the final seconds to Miami last Friday night was brutal, but it won't sting as bad as losing to Vanderbilt in Week 1 and then later to Rutgers in Week 4 in the non-conference. Virginia Tech needs to win out to get to Charlotte. Even then, how sure are we a three-loss ACC champion even gets into the playoff field?
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (1-3) (0-1)
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons used to be good, what happened? While they may not be the worst team in the ACC this year, they were projected to be near the bottom of the league anyway. At 1-3, this team has no juice, and I am beginning to wonder if we have seen the best out of Dave Clawson in Winston-Salem. He did extraordinary things previously, but his team is going nowhere.
Other ACC teams on the brink of College Football Playoff elimination
- California Golden Bears (3-1) (0-1)
- Stanford Cardinal (2-2) (1-1)
- Syracuse Orange (3-1) (1-1)
Big Ten
When it comes to the Big Ten, I feel like I can cross off four teams, with others on the brink, though.
Maryland Terrapins (3-2) (0-2)
Given Maryland's bad history of turtling up once the weather changes, is this as good as it gets for Mike Locksley's team this year? They may have gone a perfect 3-0 in non-conference play, but an 0-2 start in Big Ten competition does not bode well for the Terrapins getting in. Losing the head-to-head tiebreakers this early to Indiana and Michigan State leaves it to chance this team might miss a bowl...
Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-3) (0-2)
It might already be over. All signs point to this being P.J. Fleck's last year coaching the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Like Virginia Tech in the ACC, Minnesota is 0-3 vs. Power Four competition. Having already lost to North Carolina, Iowa and Michigan suggest this team may only win two or three more games. Fleck needs to get this team to a bowl if he wants another year of coaching these Gophers.
Purdue Boilermakers (1-3) (0-1)
The Purdue Boilermakers are already on quit watch. They just fired offensive coordinator Graham Harrell. Given that the men's basketball team just played for a national championship, don't be shocked if athletic director Mike Bobinski pulls the rug out from under Ryan Walters in year two. It appears Walters got the job to early. He may be a good head coach one day, but just not right now.
UCLA Bruins (1-3) (0-2)
What happened to Zach Arnett last year at Mississippi State might happen to DeShaun Foster at UCLA. This might be the worst team in the Big Ten. The former star running back for the Bruins may want to succeed more than anything leading his alma mater, but the Bruins look like the worst coached team in their conference. This is a team with Eric Bieniemy calling plays for them as well...
Other Big Ten teams on the brink of College Football Playoff elimination
- Michigan State Spartans (3-2) (1-1)
- Northwestern Wildcats (2-2) (0-1)
- Washington Huskies (3-2) (1-1)
- Wisconsin Badgers (2-2) (0-1)
Big 12
The Big 12 is wild. Regardless, I feel like four teams are already out of it and others will soon follow.
Baylor Bears (2-3) (0-2)
It is effectively over for Dave Aranda in Waco. It is now abundantly clear that he won with Matt Rhule's players. He may be a great defensive coach, but he lacks the aura to be the leader of a Power Four program. Losing Joey McGuire to the Texas Tech job was crippling. The fact Baylor has gotten virtually nothing offensively out of Toledo transfer quarterback Dequan Finn is earth-shatteringly bad.
Houston Cougars (1-4) (0-2)
I pegged this one immediately. Willie Fritz wanted a big pay day before he retired. By leaving Tulane for Houston, this is what he signed up for. U of H is having the hardest team of the four Big 12 schools making the leap up from the Group of Five. The Cougars have a putrid offense and can't stop a nosebleed. This might only be a two-win team. Houston had a problem, and it was Dana Holgorsen...
Kansas Jayhawks (1-4) (0-2)
Andy Kotelnicki was the secret sauce. Lance Leipold should have left Kansas when he had the chance. Jalon Daniels looks like a shell of himself physically. KU went from a team we all thought had a legitimate shot of getting to Arlington, to now being what they were prior to Leipold taking over: One of the worst teams in the Power Four. I don't see this team going bowling. Maybe they win again?
Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-2) (0-2)
I almost feel bad, but Oklahoma State is unlike the rest of the teams on this list. No, I don't think this is a bad football team, but rather a flawed one. Simply put, dropping to 0-2 in Big 12 play with critical losses to Utah and Kansas State pretty much eliminates then from getting to Arlington, and therefore, playoff contention. They need to win out and hope both the Utes and Wildcats falter to have a shot.
Other Big 12 teams on the brink of College Football Playoff elimination
- Arizona State Sun Devils (3-1) (0-1)
- Cincinnati Bearcats (3-2) (1-1)
- TCU Horned Frogs (3-2) (1-1)
SEC
The SEC only has two teams officially crossed off, but others will probably join the pair here soon.
Auburn Tigers (2-3) (0-2)
Auburn is one of only two SEC teams I feel comfortably crossing off from serious playoff contention. This is because they are 2-3 on the year with a pair of losses in conference play to Arkansas and now Oklahoma. With a huge rivalry game coming up this weekend at Georgia, the Tigers will be behind the eight ball. They also have to finish the season at Alabama for the Iron Bowl. This team may not go 6-6.
Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-4) (0-2)
Through the first five weeks of the season, it is abundantly clear that Mississippi State is the worst team in the SEC. After beating Eastern Kentucky in Week 1, the Bulldogs have dropped four in a row, including to Toledo and Arizona State in the non-conference. This team might go winless in SEC play. It may be Jeff Lebby's first year as a head coach, but the program he went to remains in total disarray.
Other SEC teams on the brink of College Football Playoff elimination
- Arkansas Razorbacks (3-2) (1-1)
- Florida Gators (2-2) (1-1)
- Kentucky Wildcats (3-2) (1-2)
- Ole Miss Rebels (4-1) (0-1)
- Vanderbilt Commodores (2-2) (0-1)