Fantasy Football 2024: Crucial start/sit decisions for Week 1

Week 1 of the NFL season is here and that means it’s time to play some fantasy football. My body is ready!

For this article, we’ll have somewhat of an old-school start/sit format, but as you know, there are so many different types of leagues that it is tough to cater start/sit articles to everyone of them. Here, I’ll look at players I like more or less than the average ranking in the fantasy industry. 

If you’d like to take my advice, it won’t be hard to transfer these thoughts into lineup decisions. To give me a baseline, I’ll use FantasyPros PPR Expert Consensus Rankings rankings as my guide. 

QBs I like more than consensus:

Jared Goff, Lions vs. Rams

Goff is never the sexy pick, but he's usually a good pick, especially in the home dome of Detroit. His offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is one of the best in the business and stuck around instead of taking a head coaching job elsewhere this offseason. Add in Amon Ra. St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams, who looks poised to contribute more this year, and you've got an offense made to score points through the air.

This week he'll take on his old team which is now Aaron Donald-less. And he'll be in Detroit, where his statistical splits were much better than on the road last season. As a side note, Goff plays 14 of their 17 games in a dome! This week, the Lions and Rams have the highest total at 51.5 points and Detroit has the highest implied team total at 27.5 points. As you can see below, I love both offenses in this matchup for fantasy.

Matthew Stafford, Rams at Lions

As I mentioned, Vegas has this game as their highest-scoring matchup of the week. And for the Lions, we will get a healthy Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams all on the field at the same time, which didn't happen much last season. When it did though, Stafford averaged 19 fantasy points. I like Stafford slightly more than Goff, as they're the underdogs and the Lions' pass defense should be worse than the Rams. But either way, I like this game to give both teams plenty of fantasy points to share.

QBs I like less than consensus:

Dak Prescott, Cowboys vs. Browns

Last season the Browns gave up the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Vegas also agrees that this game is going to be tough for the Cowboys, as they have the fourth-worst implied total at just 19 points, while the over/under of 40.5 total points is tied for the lowest of the week. So, the environment for this matchup is bad to start with and they'll be on the road.

Prescott is good and right on the edge of being a "must-start every game" kind of fantasy quarterback. I have no trouble starting him this week if you drafted him as your starter and don't have a backup with a better matchup and upside. But, there are 12-14 quarterbacks I'd start ahead of him this week.

Aaron Rodgers, Jets at 49ers

There is no doubt that Aaron Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game. If things go well health-wise and his connection with Garrett Wilson is as good as it seems it can be, then he can be a fantasy-viable player this season. But, heading to San Francisco in his first game back from an Achilles tear is not where I want to find out how fantasy-relevant he is.

The Jets implied total is just 19.5 points, and I'd expect them to give Breece Hall a lot of work in a game they'd love to control through defense and the ground game. We can't expect any rushing from Rodgers and after Wilson, there just aren't that many playmakers through the air. Mike Williams could become that, but he's returning from his own injury and will be on a snap count. In the end, there are just too many ways for this game to be a slog for Rodgers and his fantasy upside.

RBs I like more than consensus:

Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin, Broncos vs. Seahawks

Sean Payton's offense is very good for running backs when it's working. With a year under his belt and a quarterback he picked out himself, I expect the offense to be slightly better and help funnel passing work to both Williams and McLaughlin in a good matchup with Seattle. Last season the Seahawks gave up the second-most fantasy points to running backs and aren't set up to improve drastically.

Williams is now another year removed from his ACL injury and has gotten good reviews out of camp. He should lead the way, but McLaughlin has looked even better than Williams and doesn't need a lot of work to put up good numbers. In PPR. I am happy to flex McLaughlin out, while giving Williams an RB2/3 go.

Tyjae Spears, Titans at Bears

I like the Bears' defense as a whole this season, but they were the worst at stopping running backs through the air last year. I also believe the Bears have a great shot at winning this game, which could get the Titans hurrying up and dumping off to their backs. The question is which of their two backs is going to benefit the most? I like Spears between the two to win those targets, but it's not a given. Either way, I expect the Bears to play well against the Titans receivers, as they have what could be the best secondary in the league. That should get the backs more involved in the passing game.

RBs I like less than consensus:

Chuba Hubbard, Panthers vs. Saints

Hubbard has proven his worth and should have some fantasy value until Jonathan Brooks takes over, but I don't love the matchup with the Saints and there is a possibility that Mile Sanders sees more work than we'd like this week. Until I see Hubbard get the volume he needs to have value, I'm likely going to hold off on starting him. His one game last season against the Saints as the lead back did not go well for him and if Sanders gets the goal line work, we're really in trouble.

Chase Brown, Bengals vs. Patriots

The Patriots aren't going to be very good this year, which is why the Bengals are 8.5-point favorites in this Week 1 game. I love Chase Brown, but I don't believe the Patriots are going to push the Bengals enough to get Brown a lot of touches this week. New England has a good defense, but if they can't score, then Cincinnati doesn't need to go extremely pass-heavy.

Jaylen Warren, Steelers vs. Falcons

I am a huge Warren fan, but this matchup, Warren's lack of training camp and the specter of Arthur Smith hovering over the situation has me worried. Najee Harris had a strong finish to the season last year and I don't expect him to lose the lead job in Week 1 after Warren missed time due to a hamstring injury. The Falcons' run defense was also good last season, The Falcons gave up the fewest running back rushing touchdowns in the league last season and ranked sixth-best in fantasy points allowed to the position. Harris should get the bulk of the work, while we'll probably need Warren to hit a long touchdown to give us the fantasy points we need from him.

WRs I like more than consensus:

Michael Pittman, Colts vs. Texans

The Colts offense is a work in progress as Anthony Richardson returns from injury to start this season. Pittman isn't considered an elite receiver at this point and many like Josh Downs' ability more, but Downs doesn't look like he'll be healthy this week and Pittman should see a lot of targets, as Richardson likely won't go too far away from his first read. I also expect the Texans' lethal passing attack to get them a lead, which should mean even more targets for Pittman. He could easily be in the Top 5 targeted receivers this week.

Malik Nabers, Giants vs. Vikings

The Giants don't have a lot to look forward to this season, but they do have a special rookie in Nabers, and I expect they'll give him every opportunity to shine. He's looked like the real deal in training camp, while the Vikings gave up the seventh-most fantasy points to receivers last season, along with the second-most receptions.

WRs I like less than consensus

Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers vs. Jets

Last season the Jets allowed just five receiving touchdowns through 17 games. They were really an outlier in just how much they shut down opposing passing games. Their defense likely won't repeat those numbers with a better offense this season, but Sauce Gardner is the real deal and the 49ers have plenty of offensive studs to make up for Aiyuk possibly having a down game this week.

DeAndre Hopkins, Titans vs. Bears

I may like this Bears secondary too much, but I do and I'm worried about the Titans passing game with somewhat erratic Will Levis at the helm. Add in the fact that Hopkins is dealing with a more serious injury than we first thought, and I'm out on him this week.

TEs I like more than consensus:

Dalton Kincaid, Bills vs. Cardinals

Kincaid showed last season that he has upside as a top tight end, but he'll need to see an uptick in usage to get there this year. There is still concern that he'll split too much time with Dawson Knox, but without a true No. 1 receiver, I believe Josh Allen will need to lean on Kincaid at times and quickly push him inside the Top 5 fantasy tight end tier. And a home game against a weak Cardinals defense is a good place to start.

Tyler Conklin, Jets at 49ers

The scuttlebutt out of training camp had Conklin making a strong connection with Aaron Rodgers. After Garrett Wilson, the Jets don't have a noteworthy No. 2 receiver at this point, which makes Conklin a good check down against a likely strong pass rush from Nick Bosa and company.

TEs I like less than consensus

Dalton Schultz, Texans vs. Colts

The addition of Stefon Diggs this offseason looks like it will be a tough one for Schultz. Diggs fits best as an underneath receiver in this offense, which means he'll likely be competing. He'll likely need a wide receiver injury or to get some touchdown luck to truly be a starting fantasy tight end this season.

Cole Kmet, Bears vs. Titans

Kmet appeared to split work with Gerald Everett in the preseason, so I'm a little worried about his usage, but even if he's the no-doubt TE1, he still has to compete with new Bears receivers Keenan Allen and Rom Odunze to go along with D.J. Moore and new receiving back D'Andre Swift. I don't like his odds to get the targets he needs this week.