Fantasy Football 2024: Crucial start/sit decisions for Week 4

Welcome to Week 4 of the fantasy football season. The run game has taken over the NFL, but we saw some quarterbacks break out last week. One of those QBs was The Red Rifle himself, Andy Dalton. Dalton will get to face his old team this week, which always makes for a little extra energy for any game. You can scroll down below to find out if I think he is a start or a sit this week.

If you’d like to take my advice, it won’t be hard to transfer these thoughts into lineup decisions. To give me a baseline, I’ll use FantasyPros PPR Expert Consensus Rankings rankings as my guide. 

QBs I like more than consensus

Andy Dalton, Panthers vs. Bengals

Dalton topped 300 yards passing and threw three touchdowns as he replaced Bryce Young in Week 3 against the Raiders. Can he keep this up? Nobody knows for sure, but he gets to face his old Bengals team this week, a team that hasn't been great against quarterbacks this season. The Bengals pass defense currently ranks 29th in passing EPA allowed and Jayden Daniels just lit them up on Monday Night Football. We know Dalton would like to light up his old team as well and he's shown us that old Dalton is still pretty good.

Caleb Williams, Bears vs. Rams

If you just look at the fantasy production, Williams had his best game, as he threw for 365 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in Week 3 against the Colts. Unfortunately, he threw the ball 52 times to get to that number. The running game hasn't worked for Chicago at all through three games and the odds of it getting fixed this week are low. I still like Williams to throw plenty in this game and the matchup is great, as the Rams rank 31st in passing EPA allowed as well as fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Kyler Murray and Brock Purdy both threw three touchdowns against them in their last two games and now they travel to Chicago to test themselves against a rookie QB who looks like he'll get Keenan Allen back this week.

QBs I like less than consensus

Anthony Richardson, Colts at Steelers

The numbers are great for the Steelers pass defense this season, but they have faced Kirk Cousins, Bo Nix and a hobbled Justin Herbert so far this year. The good news is that they took care of business against those guys and now get the ultra-athletic Richardson. Richardson has shown great upside as a runner and a deep passer so far, but he is still erratic and tough to project from week to week. So much depends on if he can rush for a touchdown or not to boost his fantasy numbers. But, the Steelers' defensive line has been great so far and playing in Pittsburgh doesn't help. I'm sitting him where I can.

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs at Chargers

Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league and I expect Kansas City to win this game, but they likely won't put up huge numbers against an improved Chargers defense. The Chiefs have also thrown less often this season and the Chargers will look to slow the game down into a slog, especially with Justin Herbert not 100 percent healthy. Chiefs are 8.5 point favorites and they are very much willing to win ugly at this point.

RBs I like more than consensus

Zack Moss, Bengals at Panthers

The Panthers run defense isn't good, as they rank 31st in rushing EPA allowed. The Bengals are also 4.5-point favorites and should be close or in the lead, making it easier to get their early down back plenty of usage in a good matchup. Moss is coming off his best game as a Bengal and I expect he'll continue that trend this week in Carolina.

Brian Robinson, Commanders at Cardinals

Robinson has played well this season, accumulating 262 total yards and two touchdowns in three games. That puts him at RB16 in PPR leagues for the year. And this week he won't have Austin Ekeler to cut into his workload. Ekeler is out with a concussion and this game has the highest over/under of the week. The Cardinals have also allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the running back position so far.

RBs I like less than consensus

Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks at Lions

The Lions have had a strong run defense so far this season. They've stifled Kyren Williams, Rachaad White, Bucky Irving and James Conner in their first three games. The only touchdown they've given up to the position is Wiliams, who averaged just 2.8 yards per carry on 18 attempts. The addition of D.J. Reader has really helped shore up that defensive line.

At this point, we don't know if Kenneth Walker will suit up or not, but either Walker or Charbonnet will get the start and should have tough sledding.

James Cook, Bills at Ravens

Cook has been great this season and he's likely still a start in most leagues, but he does get a tough matchup on the road Sunday Night. The Ravens defense has been very much a pass funnel this season, as they rank 27th in pass defense EPA and second in run defense EPA. And on 44 running back carries, they've allowed just 2.6 yards per carry, I expect Josh Allen to see plenty of work as a passer in this matchup, while Cook will likely need a touchdown to be a good play this week.

WRs I like more than consensus

Xavier Legette, Panthers vs. Bengals

Legette will see a boost in snaps with Adam Thielen going on IR He caught 2-of-3 targets for 44 yards last week and all signs point toward him being in line for more against the Bengals. The Bengals are 4.5-point favorites, which should only push Dalton to throw more than they'd like and Legette is a playmaker with strong upside if he can get the ball in his hands.

Khalil Shakir, Bills at Ravens

The Bills are spreading the ball around way too much for my liking, but for real-life football, it's been a good thing. Thankfully Shakir is so good that even on a medium target load, he can put up good numbers. He's only seen 14 targets in three games, but he's WR17 in PPR leagues, as he's caught all but one pass, giving him 13 receptions for 168 yards and two touchdowns. I expect the Bills to throw against the Ravens, who have been stout against the run, but quite giving to wide receivers. On the season they are fourth-worst at allowing fantasy points to the position, while ranking 27th in pass defense EPA.

WR I like less than consensus

Zay Flowers, Ravens vs. Bills

The Bills pass defense has been one of the best in the business, allowing the fewest fantasy points to outside receivers. The Ravens will likely try to establish the run, as the Bills rank first in pass defense EPA and 27th in run defense EPA. Flowers could see his usage spike if the Bills get out to a quick lead, but he will still have a tough test against this defense. But, we could also see the Ravens slow this game down and really put it on Henry and Lamar Jackson as runners like they did last week against the Cowboys.

Rams receivers at Bears

I think Matthew Stafford is a great quarterback and thought he would elevate a receiver or two with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua out. Unfortunately, that hasn't happened as of yet. Demarcus Robinson, Jordan Whittington, Tyler Johnson, and Tutu Atwell are all getting a handful of targets, but nobody has really stepped up in a consistent way. Now they face the Bears in Chicago, who have been stingy against the pass so far. They currently rank third-best in EPA against the run and rank sixth-best in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.

TEs I like more than consensus

Dalton Kincaid, Bills at, Ravens

Kincaid got into the end zone last week and had his most targets, receptions and yards of the early season. Still, five targets aren't great, but we also need to lower our expectations for tight ends this season, and every season really. Touchdowns and blow-up games are the bread and butter for tight ends in fantasy and as long as we're playing good tight ends on good offenses, that's going to have to be good enough. The matchup news for Kincaid this week is that the Ravens have allowed the third-most fantasy points to tight ends and are a much easier team to throw on than run.

Cole Kmet, Bears vs. Rams

Kmet has seen one target i Week 1, five in Week 2 and 11 in Week 3 so far this season. That's a wide variety of targets, but at least the numbers have moved in the right direction. Caleb Williams, who has been struggling, seems to have made a good connection with Kmet, as he completed 10 of 11 targets to him last week. I see the Bears leaning into that connection against the Rams poor pass defense.

TEs I like less than consensus

Dalton Schultz, Texans vs. Jaguars

This is a good get-right spot for the Texans after getting a beat down in Minnesota last week. Unfortunately for Schultz, he's just not getting the work he needs to be viable for fantasy, even as a tight end. So far he has just seven receptions for 48 yards. Tank Dell might miss this game with a chest injury, but Schultz and Dell aren't exactly seeing the same targets in the same part of the field.