Fantasy Football 2024: Crucial start/sit decisions for Week 5

Week 5 of the NFL season is here and bye weeks have started. It's getting real folks! And now that we are four weeks in, the data is getting better in helping us make start/sit decisions. Week 4 was the best week so far for this column, which is how it should work. Hopefully we can keep some consistency moving forward.

If you’d like to take my advice, it won’t be hard to transfer these thoughts into lineup decisions. To give me a baseline, I’ll use FantasyPros PPR Expert Consensus Rankings rankings as my guide. 

​​QBs I like more than consensus

Brock Purdy, 49ers at Cardinals

Purdy has played well this season but just hasn't put up the fantasy points we'd expect for how well he's played. He should start seeing a bit more touchdown luck and he's also been running more, giving him a shot at more rushing touchdowns. And this week he gets a Cardinals defense that ranks 29th at pressuring quarterbacks and 29th in pass defense EPA. Purdy also has his full complement of healthy receivers back.

Justin Fields, Steelers vs. Cowboys

Justin Fields' second half against the Colts was truly a work of fantasy art. Overall he threw for over 300 yards and a touchdown while adding two rushing touchdowns and 55 yards rushing. He ended up leading all quarterbacks in fantasy points and now is at QB7 on the year. The main reason he had that kind of fantasy upside is that the Colts were able to get a big lead, which pushed Fields to do more offensively than he has needed to this season.

The Cowboys haven't been great this year, but they are still an above-average offense, which should keep the Steelers offense from burying their head and waiting for the defense to win the game for them. Add in the fact that both Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence are out this week, and I love Fields fantasy upside again in Week 4.

QBs I like less than consensus

Andy Dalton, Panthers at Bears

Dalton will give the Panthers a shot at putting up points this week, but he'll have a much tougher time against this Bears defense than he's had against the Raiders and Bengals defenses. The Bears rank second in pass defense EPA and third in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. They also rank seventh in getting pressure on the quarterback, but 24th in blitz rate. Dalton has had a relatively clean pocket so far, but that should change this week. The Bears allowed just two passing touchdowns to five interceptions on the season and the sixth-worst completion percentage. Dalton will really need to prove himself this week.

Kyler Murray, Cardinals vs. 49ers

I was very much ready to see Kyler Murray take off this year as a top fantasy quarterback. Then, when he put up huge numbers against the Rams in Week 2, I figured this was the start of something big. It wasn't. Sure, he can turn things around and he will have strong fantasy games, but this isn't the week I'm going to bet on that happening.

The 49ers are getting after the quarterback this year and aren't bringing extra help to get there. It's a perfect situation to keep Murray under wraps as both a runner and passer. So far, the 49ers rank 11th in pass defense EPA and are third at pressuring quarterbacks. I expect the 49ers to get a lead here, which will help Murray's volume, but if they have to become a pass-first team for most of the game, the 49ers defensive line should feast.

RBs I like more than consensus

Aaron Jones, Vikings vs. Jets

The Jets defense is solid, but they have been more effective against the pass than the run. Jones is coming off back-to-back 19 and 22 carry games and the Vikings are favored at home. So far this season, the Jets run defense ranks 21st in EPA, while their pass defense ranks fifth. This is a game we might usually downgrade Jones, but I expect he'll see plenty of volume to overcome any inefficiency.

Najee Harris, Steelers vs. Cowboys

The Steelers have played four strong run defenses to start the season and their running backs have been shut down in the process. This week they get a much easier run defense on Sunday night against the Cowboys. Injuries to star defensive players Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence hurt, but even with them healthy, the Cowboys have been weak against the run. The Cowboys rank 28th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs, as well as 31st in run defense EPA.

Pittsburgh's running backs aren't healthy at the moment either, as Jaylen Warren and Corarrelle Patterson are both dealing with injuries that look like they could keep them out this week. Good usage in a good matchup is enough to give Harris a nice bump in fantasy this week.

RBs I like less than consensus

Zack Moss, Bengals vs. Ravens

The Ravens are very much a pass-funnel defense, as they rank 21st in EPA against the pass, but sixth in EPA against the run. Last week they completely shut down James Cook, who had four touchdowns in his last two games. Moss is the receiving back here, which helps him, but Chase Brown is going to continue to cut into his work after putting up a great game against the Panthers last week. When considering a possible drop in touches while also facing a team that is one of the top run defenses, the stars are not aligning for Moss.

Zamir White, Raiders at Broncos

This probably should go without saying, but White is toast on this team. He needs leads, scoring opportunities and a strong defense. So far, that has not been how the Raiders games have gone. With how poor the Broncos offense has been, maybe the Raiders get a lead and White will accumulate a lot of carries. But, the Broncos have been lights out on defense this season. They've now held the Buccaneers and Jets to seven and nine points over the last two weeks. And they completely shut down Breece Hall. Yeah, the good Breece Hall.

WRs I like more than consensus

Amari Cooper, Browns at Commanders

Cooper has had some bad drops this season, but he's getting open and getting targets, which is about all you need when facing the Commanders secondary. Washington has allowed 10 passing touchdowns to wide receivers and intercepted no passes. And yes, DeShaun Watson is a sleeper quarterback play this week.

The Browns offense has gotten pass-happy this season and should remain the same this week, especially the way Jayden Daniels has been playing. Cooper has been pretty bad in three of his four games, but I'm willing to look past drops and focus on usage and matchup. Cooper's 37 targets rank sixth in the league and you can't get a much better matchup.

Josh Downs, Colts at Jaguars

Downs has returned from his ankle injury and has slowly gained work over the last two weeks. Last week he broke out, catching 8-of-9 targets for 82 yards and a touchdown against a good Steelers defense. This week he gets a better defense to target with the Jaguars. Jacksonville ranks 30th in pass defense EPA and 28th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. It looks like Anthony Richardson is trending toward playing, which probably hurts his fantasy floor, but his upside should remain high in this matchup.

WRs I like less than consensus

Jakobi Meyer, Raiders at Broncos

Meyer gets a boost with Davante Adams out this week but has an extremely tough matchup against Patrick Surtain and the Broncos. On the season, Denver has allowed just one wide receiver touchdown, to Chris Godwin. And they've shut down DK Metcalf, George Pickens, Mike Evans, and the Jets receivers. This is a situation to avoid if possible.

Tank Dell, Texans vs. Bills

I can't fade Nico Collins, as he is just too good, but this Bills pass defense is not one you want to mess with. Stefon Diggs can still get you some PPR points due to his route running and lowered depth of target, but Dell is going to have trouble getting deep on this team. On the season they haven't allowed a receiver to top 79 yards and they've given up one touchdown to the position. The whole group gets knocked down a bit, but Dell is on the bench for me this week as he likely returns from a chest injury.

TEs I like more than consensus

Tucker Kraft, Packers at Rams

We can't expect the volume Kraft saw last week in a game Jordan Love threw the ball 52 times, but it was good to see Kraft take over the TE1 role and command a 17 percent target share on the day. We're all trying to figure out the best way to get fantasy points out of tight ends this season and going with a guy who has gradually gained snaps and routes and is going up against a weak defense is about as good as you can get.

Tyler Conklin, Jets vs. Vikings

The Vikings defense is good, but they have allowed 22 receptions to tight ends, ranking them sixth-worst. Overall they've allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the position. Conklin isn't going to blow anyone's socks off, but he has caught nine of 15 targets over the last two games and should be in line for another shot at a decent workload this week.

TEs I like less than consensus

Pat Freiermuth, Steelers vs. Cowboys

The Cowboys haven't allowed a tight end score yet this season, and rank sixth in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position. Freiermuth still could find the end zone and be a worthwhile start, but the odds aren't great.