Grade the take: Derek Carr will actually turn the Saints around this time

Second-year New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr does not have the greatest past as an Oakland/Las Vegas Raider from 2014-2021. And it tends to chase him even when times are good. Associated Press writer Josh Dubow pointed out a disturbing skeleton from Carr's closet after Carr's and the Saints' fabulous 2-0 start in wins over Carolina and Dallas that includes an NFL-best 91 points.

Carr was 2-0 in 2017 with the Oakland Raiders and in 2020 with the Las Vegas Raiders, and both ended in disaster at 6-10 and 8-8, respectively. Carr was also 2-0 last year with the Saints before folding again and finishing 9-8. Carr looked very average through most of last season, complained about others and did not take much blame, which was something he frequently did with the Raiders.

So does that mean these Saints are destined to fall off again with Carr under center?

Let's take a look at Carr's 2017 and 2020 Raiders

Following 26-16 and 45-20 wins over Tennessee and the New York Jets, the Raiders' offense was horrible as it scored 17 points or fewer in the 10 losses under first-year coordinator Todd Downing. Carr became the NFL's highest player entering his fourth season that season at $125 million a year and had a very good year. He threw for 3,496 yards and 22 touchdowns with 13 interceptions and made his third straight Pro Bow. So, it's hard to say the season was on him.

This was the first season the Raiders played knowing they would soon be moving to Las Vegas. That can put a damper on everything. When a potential move to San Antonio from New Orleans was in the air post Hurricane Katrina for the Saints in 2005, it did not help and that team fell to 3-13 from 8-8.

Raiders' head coach Jack Del Rio had gone 12-4 the previous season with a Wild Card playoff loss, but he was no mastermind. He entered the 2017 season with four losing seasons out of his previous six, counting his up-and-down stay in Jacksonville. He was fired on New Year's Eve, 2017.

Defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr. hovered near the bottom of the league standings throughout the season and was fired on Nov. 21.

Carr had a decent season in 2020 — the Raiders' first in Vegas. throwing for 4,103 yards and 27 touchdowns against nine interceptions, and upsetting Patrick Mahomes at Kansas City, 40-32, throwing for 347 yards and three touchdowns. But there were some lapses. In a 43-6 loss to Atlanta late in the season, he lost three fumbles and threw a pick-six.

It was the third and last full season of head coach Jon Gruden, who was 4-12 and 7-9 in his first two seasons. He would resign the next year after revelations that he had sent numerous racist, misogynistic, and homophobic emails between 2011 and 2018. The Raiders suffered their fourth straight season of eight or fewer wins in 2020. So this was not an organization trending the right way, regardless of overall solid play by Carr.

Saints not exactly on solid foundation

New Orleans entered the 2024 season not much different than Carr's Raiders. Third-year head coach Dennis Allen has not had a winning season, going 7-10 and 9-8 entering this season. He was a questionable hire as was Del Rio — only worse. Allen's only head coaching experience before the Saints promoted him from defensive coordinator after the 2021 season to replace Sean Payton was with the Raiders from 2012-14, and he went 4-12, 4-12 and 0-4.

Allen, though, can coach defense and has a very good one again. It has played well enough the last two seasons to get the Saints to the playoffs. And if New Orleans' offense and Carr maintain anything remotely close to what they have done the first two weeks, the Saints will be in the playoffs for the first time since 2020.

Coach Dennis Allen calls Derek Carr's start 'pretty freakin' good'

Allen marveled Monday at Carr's start as he is 30-of-39 passing (77 percent) for 443 yards with five touchdowns and just one interception for a NFL-high 142.4 passer rating while also leading the league in yards per pass at 11.4.

"When that first number of your quarterback efficiency starts with a one, and it's a three-digit number, that's pretty freakin' good in our league," said Allen, who has not seen those type of numbers consistently since Drew Brees.

"And he's operating at a very, very high level," Allen said. "The efficiency is really impressive and really that goes back to the end of last year. He's playing really exceptional football for us, and we're going to need him to continue to do that."

And it's not just Carr. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak deserves credit for simplifying and energizing a dead offense and plan. And the offensive line has been a major surprise, particularly previously struggling tackle Trevor Penning.

"Obviously, our receivers are doing a great job running routes, getting open," Allen said. "We're scheming guys open a little bit. Our protection has been outstanding. When you have all those things working together, and your quarterback's operating at a high level, it allows you to be pretty good on offense."

Grade the take: C

But it's early, and Carr has rarely delivered consistently over an entire season. Dubow may have had a contrarian edge, but he has an excellent point. Overall, though, his take gets a C as the Saints have a better overall roster, particularly on defense, than the 2017 and '20 Raiders, as well as last year's Saints. Conservatively, this looks like a 10-win team