Grading a Braves trade for rival pitcher to replace Spencer Strider

Despite being an NL-best 15-6 early in the 2024 MLB campaign, the Atlanta Braves have a clear hole to fill atop their starting pitching rotation after All-Star ace Spencer Strider underwent season-ending elbow surgery on Friday, Apr. 12, to repair the torn UCL in his throwing elbow. But they may be able to get help addressing the need from a divisional foe.

Tim Kelly of Bleacher Report forecasts the Braves to acquire southpaw Jesus Luzardo from the Miami Marlins ahead of the 2024 trade deadline in an effort to replace Strider, citing the need for a frontline starter of his caliber as contending team in pursuit of a World Series title this season.

But Kelly labels Luzardo a "solid pitcher" albeit "not a franchise icon," highlighting how the Braves wouldn't have to break the bank for his services, opening the door for Atlanta to improve their pitching staff without including their No. 2 overall prospect — pitcher Hurston Waldrep. However, that doesn't rule out other intriguing prospects like shortstop Nacho Alvarez Jr., hurler Spencer Schwellenbach, and catcher Drake Baldwin as potential farm system bargaining chips. 

Let's evaluate what a possible trade between two NL East rivals could look like and grade it from the perspective of both sides.

Potential Jesus Luzardo-Braves trade package

Here, the Marlins add a prospective everyday infielder in Alvarez, who could step in and take the spot of shortstop Tim Anderson once his deal expires at the end of the year. Or, even allow Miami to dangle the veteran in separate trade talks to recoup assets rather than letting him walk for nothing. Moreover, they fill another void by bringing in Baldwin to ideally establish himself as their future backstop, especially with Nick Fortes looking like nothing more than a stopgap.

Alvarez has spent 15 games with Atlanta's double-A affiliate this season, the Mississippi Braves, logging a .294/.429/.314 slash line, adding zero home runs, three RBIs, and six stolen bases across 63 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Baldwin has a .261 average with one homer and six RBIs through 12 AA contests.

Conversely, the Braves don't have much of a need for Baldwin, considering All-Star catcher Sean Murphy is under contract through 2028 (with a club option for 2029). Shortstop Orlando Arcia is also signed up until 2025 (with a team option for 2026), blocking Alvarez from carving out a full-time, long-term role. 

Ranking near the middle-of-the-pack or bottom of the league in vital pitching categories like WHIP (14th), strikeouts per nine innings pitched (22nd), and ERA (18th), the Braves would certainly benefit from adding Luzardo, likely the best pitcher on the market, while giving up pieces they don't necessarily need in this scenario, making it a win-win trade. Contrarily, the Marlins capitalize by landing two solid prospects amid a lost season.

In this deal, we see the infrequent trade between two divisional competitors be mutually beneficial for all parties involved.

Atlanta Braves trade grade: A- | Miami Marlins trade grade: A