Grading an Astros-Blue Jays trade to swap Jose Abreu for Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The Houston Astros have won seven of their last 10 games, finally building some positive momentum after a catastrophic start to the season. The Joe Espada experience has been rocky at best. Dusty Baker was not a perfect manager, but he led Houston to the World Series. There was a standard level of excellence the team achieved year in, and year out.

That excellence has felt like a distant memory in recent months. The Astros are still five games below .500 and 3.5 games back of first-place Seattle in the AL West. If not for the weakness of their division front to back, there was be serious panic about the state of affairs in Houston. This is an expensive roster with an expectation to contend. If the Astros can't fully turn it around, there will be a lot of uncomfortable questions this offseason.

If the Astros want to stave off a crippling sense of existential dread, it's time to start producing on the field. GM Dana Brown is probably looking ahead to next offseason with mild trepidation. Alex Bregman, Ryan Pressly, and Justin Verlander can all walk in free agency. There are alternative paths available at the trade deadline — sell, sell, sell or swing for the fences.

A new trade proposal from Bleacher Report's Zachary D. Rymer falls squarely in the latter category.

Grading Astros-Blue Jays trade to swap Jose Abreu for Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The Astros would love to get, ya know, real production from first base. The position has been a revolving door of sadness all season with 37-year-old Jose Abreu being demoted to the Florida Complex League after a 7-for-71 start at the plate. The former MVP is due back soon, but let's be frank. Abreu has been one prolonged disappointment since arriving in H-Town. He doesn't have it anymore.

In Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Astros would get relatively guaranteed production. He's also under contract through next season, so it's more than a one-year rental. The Astros can see how this season ends and how next season starts before making concrete determinations about Vladdy's future.

Guerrero has been excellent at the plate despite the Toronto Blue Jays' collective struggles. He's slashing .288/.382/.414 with eight home runs and 24 RBI in 191 at-bats. His hard-hit rate (58.4) lands in the MLB's 99th percentile, per Baseball Savant. He is a premium source of power and a regular on the base paths.

The Astros are used to winning behind the strength of their offense. Guerrero is also 25 years old, with plenty of room left to grow. The Blue Jays aren't necessarily in a hurry to trade him as a result, but Toronto is quickly approaching no-man's land with a completely unserious front office. At a certain point, recouping significant value — such as the Astros' No. 1 ranked prospect — and resetting the table is a logical option. Maybe the only option.

Of course, there is risk for Houston. If Guerrero packs up and leaves in 2025, fans won't feel great about burning a top prospect for a 1.5-year rental. One must also consider the financial risks. As Rymer points out, Houston is $1.1 million shy of the first surcharge threshold in the luxury tax. Guerrero's salary sits at $19.9 million. He would cost ownership a lot of money, which is hard to stomach for a team situated below .500 — no matter how much Guerrero improves the Astros' outlook.

The Blue Jays could hope for more than the No. 77 overall prospect, but generally, this is the going price. Teams will need to sacrifice their best prospects to get a foot in the door. Toronto won't sell off a 25-year-old All-Star for pennies on the dollar. Maybe Toronto should tough it out and build more competently around its young stars, but we can be frank about the situation. That franchise needs a hard reset.

Do the Astros also need a hard reset? it's a fair question, but Houston has earned the benefit of the doubt after multiple deep postseason runs. Maybe Guerrero helps right the ship.

Astros grade: B+
Blue Jays grade: C