Greg McElroy is tempering expectations for Michigan fans in a post-Jim Harbaugh world

For as great of a run the Michigan Wolverines had the last three seasons, expect a considerable regression to the mean in 2024. Not only did Jim Harbaugh leave for the NFL, but they lost so much talent to the 2024 NFL Draft. Coaching attrition and roster depletion has taken Michigan from a College Football Playoff lock to a team that would be lucky if it got the No. 11 seed as a 10-2 team.

On the latest episode of Always College Football, ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy said the hard part about Michigan's title defense so I don't have to. Okay, maybe I will, but McElroy did a fantastic job in trying to temper grandiose expectations of grandeur delusion over in Ann Arbor. Even if Sherrone Moore is a hit in year one as the head coach, this is fourth best team in the Big Ten.

McElroy started by saying that roster turnover is playing a huge part in him being down on Michigan.

“I look at their roster turnover this year, and my expectations are not as high as they were a year ago. Granted, I love their defense, love what they have in the secondary, [and] love it to have along the defensive line. I think they’re gonna be excellent on that side of the ball. But I do have legitimate questions with what they bring back offensively; about what they have at the quarterback position. I think they’re gonna run the ball pretty well, their receivers are going to be underrated, [and] they have an elite tight end, but I do worry about them creating balance in the passing game.”

Even with a great defense, the offense took a hit. It is why McElroy sees this is a 9-3 or 10-3 team.

“So, I think an incredible season for Michigan this year would be to make the playoffs at 10-3. Maybe they get to the Big Ten championship game and lose. That would still be an incredible season, especially knowing some of the departures from the turnover that Michigan’s experienced this past season. A solid season for Michigan would be 9-3. Now you’re going to say, how can you possibly think that way?"

McElroy then unpacked their brutal schedule, one featuring dates with Texas, Oregon and Ohio State.

“Well, I look at their schedule. Right now, on a neutral site, if they played today, I would take Texas, Oregon, and Ohio State. Well, they play all three. Two of the three are at home, which makes life a little bit easier. But either way, I look at Michigan, and I think losing to Ohio State, Texas, [and] Oregon. There’s no shame in that, especially given what those teams bring back and some of the departures that Michigan has to replace.”

McElroy then finished his Michigan take by saying that 8-4 or worse would be a disappointing season.

“A disappointing season for Michigan will be 8-4 or worse. OK, you lose the aforementioned games. Those are games that are going to be toss-up games; you’re going to be an underdog. But a disappointing season would be to lose those three and lose a game that you don’t expect. Like a game against Michigan State, you lose a game on the road at Washington or at Illinois. I don’t think it’s likely, by the way, but certainly possible… Maybe you lose a game at home to USC. That would be a disappointing season.”

Here is a link to the latest episode of Always College Football in which McElroy discussed Michigan.

What do we need to see out of Moore to let us know that Michigan will survive Harbaugh's NFL exit?

Greg McElroy is way down on what Michigan football can be this season

My opinion on Michigan does not differ all that much than how McElroy feels about the Wolverines. He may have done a deeper dive into the schedule than I have, but this feels like a 9-3, give or take a win on either side of the equation. While I tend to agree that the defense should be fine, keep in mind that Don "Wink" Martindale is the new coordinator, as Jesse Minter followed Harbaugh to the NFL.

Although I suspect the offensive line and ground game should be as good as advertised, I cannot say that I have ever seen Alex Orji throw a football. Admittedly, you don't have to throw the ball a ton in this Michigan offense to have success. Just look at J.J. McCarthy for example. However, I struggle seeing this team getting into a shootout and win as the roster is constructed. Michigan can only win one way.

What would constitute a great season for Michigan is to go something like 10-3 and be in the mix to make the expanded playoff. The fact they have to play three of the four best teams in the country this year in Ohio State, Oregon and Texas is so beyond brutal. They may get Oregon and Texas at home, but this still have to play USC and Washington in conference play as well. They get no breaks at all.

Overall, if you can win all the games you should and steal a game either at home vs. Oregon or Texas or ruin Ryan Day's life in Columbus during Thanksgiving weekend, everyone in Ann Arbor will be doing cartwheels in the streets. A win over any of those three means the program is already climbing back to what it can be in the immediate aftermath of Harbaugh's exodus. It's possible, but don't count on it.

The sooner we accept that Michigan is a nine-win team this year, the better off the program will be.