Group of Five preview 2024: Playoff contenders, potential coaches on the move, more

Football is still football. Yes, we have arrived at the most sacred False Start-adjacent college football preview for the Group of Five. Cody Williams and I previewed the AAC, CUSA, the MAC, the Mountain West and the Sun Belt in the only way we could. Like Frankie said, we did it our way. I may be an SEC guy and Cody an ACC dude, but we both love any variation of the wackiest and most wonderful sport.

With the College Football Playoff expanding from four teams to 12, one of these teams we mentioned will be part of the new postseason tournament. We discussed who could be playing for conference championships, who definitely maybe, might be good, what head coaches could be leaving ... eventually, what Group of Five stars are worthy of NFL Draft consideration and much, much more.

My favorite thing about discussing the Group of Five is Cody and I never downplay it. We may not know as much about these leagues as the Power Four and Notre Dame, but we do love celebrating it. Every year, we end up having a new darling to get fired up over. Will the real New Mexico State Aggies please stand up. I see you, Tony Sanchez, but we really do miss our guys Jerry Kill and Diego Pavia.

But before I dive into the Group of Five preview, check out False Start's Week 0 reactions podcast!

Playoffs? You Kiddin' Me?!: Who represents the Group of Five in the CFP?

We will get to the 10 teams playing for Group of Five championships in their respective conferences, but there were really only three teams worthy of giving the nod to win the Group of Five. I went with last year's champion in the Jamey Chadwell's Liberty Flames out of CUSA, while Cody Williams decided it was going to be the Boise State Broncos' year out of the Mountain West. There is another.

That would be the Memphis Tigers out of the AAC. While Memphis has won the Group of Five before, just like Liberty did last year and Boise State did way back in 2014. Ryan Silverfield is doing a fantastic job leading the Tigers, but so did Mike Norvell and Justin Fuente before him. Cody and I also question the strength of the ACC overall. We feel that about CUSA, but not about the Mountain West.

Overall, these were three of the four teams Cody and I unanimously had winning their respective Group of Five conferences. While we did not always agree on who got to their respective title bouts, our collective and undivided attention is pretty much reserved for the same handful of teams. He may like Boise State and I may like Liberty more, but we still think highly of these teams, as with Memphis.

Of course, there will be other contenders to emerge out of the Group of Five, but we like these three.

Definitely, Maybe: These G5 teams will definitely, maybe might be good

In addition to Boise State, Liberty and Memphis, I think we should put some respect on a few more teams as well. While I have Memphis beating UTSA, Cody has the Tigers beating South Florida. The Roadrunners and the Bulls, along with Tulane make up a fearsome foursome in the AAC with Memphis. Throw Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State into the mix as our CUSA runner-ups, too.

In the MAC, I had Miami (OH) beating Toledo, whereas Cody had Bowling Green beating the RedHawks. He is more out on Jason Candle than I am on Lincoln Riley. You cannot take either of us higher on either guy, even though I tried once... In the Mountain West, we both had Boise State over UNLV, although we both like Barry Odom's chances of getting an even better job for next season.

Finally, we both had GJ Kinne's Texas State Bobcats getting the best of the Appalachian State Mountaineers to win the ever-feisty Sun Belt. This might be the best league in the Group of Five, but that is probably indicative of the league doing what it does in cannibalizing itself. To date, the Sun Belt is shockingly the only Group of Five league to never win the Group of Five. Look for that to continue.

Overall, we have about 13 teams who could be playing for the right to win the Group of Five this year.

A Slice of Pumpkin Pie: Group of Five stars that will be NFL Draft darlings

Admittedly, this will be more fun after the end of the season. In doing serious research for this, Cody and I found a combined six guys we think could be notable NFL Draft picks out of the Group of Five this season. We agreed on Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty, Colorado State wide receiver Tory Horton and East Carolina cornerback Shavon Revel Jr. I also had three more guys mentioned.

I had Jacksonville State guard Clay Webb, Bowling Green tight end Harold Fannin and Liberty quarterback Kaidon Salter. While Salter may not have the early draft hype of these other five, he plays the right position for the right team and the right head coach in Jamey Chadwell at Liberty where we could see his stock rise precipitously. Salter was at one point a former Power Four quarterback, too.

What this exercise shows is the transfer portal is doing major damage to the once-healthy crop of talent coming up in the Group of Five level. Taylen Green could have been a candidate for this, but the former Boise State quarterback transferered to Arkansas. The same principle applies to former Toledo quarterback Dequan Finn, who now plays for Dave Aranda's Baylor Bears over in the Big 12.

But if there is one name to watch possibly crack the top-40, that would have to be Jeanty going away.

He Gone ... Eventually!: Group of Five head coaches going to Power Four

No, Cody and I don't like to put Group of Five head coaches on the hot seat. That would be so mean. Instead, we choose to celebrate a job well done. We each listed five head coaches and a sleeper that could make the jump up to either the Power Four, or a bigger Group of Five gig. Here are my five and a sleeper: Jamey Chadwell, Barry Odom, GJ Kinne, Jeff Traylor, Ryan Silverfield and Mike Bloomgren.

Cody had Chadwell, Traylor, Alex Golesh, Odom and Rich Rodriguez, with Kinne as his sleeper. There could be other head coaches who could emerge as serious candidates for bigger and better jobs in 2025, but these eight feel right. Although how I feel about Kinne is how he feels about Golesh, the other six could take over a Power Four team tomorrow if the right serious of jobs were to open up.

The one thing that we kept going back to is outside of Chadwell and Rodriguez, the other six need to go to the right spot. Golesh may have more coaching range than the others, but he may need another year at USF, just like Cody thinks Kinne needs one more year at Texas State. Look for at least three of these head coaches to make the leap up from the Group of Five and into the Power Four next season.

When it comes to a consensus, Cody and I would agree those three are Chadwell, Odom and Troylor.

Du Hast or Du Hasst?: Can the Group of Five ever win a playoff game?

For this year, Cody Williams and I both agreed Du Hasst two esses. The teams that are going to get the No. 5, No. 6 or even No. 7 seeds are going to be way too powerful for the Group of Five champion to overcome. You are looking at the Boise State, Liberty and Memphis facing teams like Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Texas in the first round at their place. They have no chance at survival.

However, I said that one day, maybe the Group of Five can beat a Power Four team in the playoff, Du Hast, one S. Dating back to the BCS era, we have seen Boise State beat Oklahoma, Utah beat Alabama, UCF beat Baylor and Cincinnati make the four-team playoff out of the Group of Five. Never say never is kind of where I landed with that. As for Cody, he had a great reason why he as Du Hasst...

While he probably wanted to agree with me for the sake of being optimistic about the future, he simply could not do that because he has seen how much of a negative impact the transfer portal and NIL have done to college football at this level. If a player shines as a freshman or sophomore at the Group of Five, he will be playing Power Four as an upperclassman. Heck, even Grayson McCall left...

All it takes is one team, one coach and one player to do the impossible, but who will that one team be?

Pat the Doc: How will conference realignment impact the Group of Five?

Not going to lie, I don't really have a definitive answer right now. The only league I know for certain that conference realignment has hurt in the Power Four is the ACC. I am bullish on what it could mean for the Big Ten, SEC, and even the Big 12. But when it comes to the Group of Five, I think you need to take a look at conference strength. To me, the Mountain West and the Sun Belt are the best positions.

The AAC has been harvested for talent with the likes of Cincinnati, Houston, UCF and now SMU making the leap up. CUSA is adding teams in order to survive. The Delaware, Kennesaw State and Missouri State additions could be fun, but when will the cream rise to the top. As far as the MAC is concerned, this is the most stable league in the Group of Five, but it is one that feels rather insular.

My hope is the Mountain West picks up Oregon State and Washington State full-time and rebrands as the new Pac-16. A true West Coast conference could be a powerful league, if you ask me. As for the Sun Belt, as long as the coaching remains excellent and the programs are adamant about giving everyone everything they have got, then that league could be able to sustain success in the long run.

Overall, I would lean slightly positive because these teams have a strong sense of who they all are.