This Guardians trade scenario could break the AL Central as we know it

The Cleveland Guardians didn't enter the 2024 season with lofty expectations. Not only did they lose their manager, Terry Francona, and replace him with Stephen Vogt, a former player with no managerial experience, but they lost key contributors like Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Cal Quantrill without doing much of anything in free agency. They looked worse on paper than the 76-86 team that they were in 2023.

When Shane Bieber was sidelined for the season after making just two starts the Guardians looked even more like a team we'd be talking about as sellers when the trade deadline rolled around. It turns out, not only will Cleveland not be selling, the Guardians might be massive buyers.

At 43-23, this Guardians team is obviously not one that is super flawed, but one consistent issue they've had is getting much production out of outfielders not named Steven Kwan. Cleveland's center field production has been particularly subpar, as the 0.0 fWAR that they've gotten out of their center fielders is good for 26th in the majors. Tyler Freeman, the team's starter at the position, hasn't done much well other than avoiding strikeouts.

Fortunately, one of the best players expected to be available at this year's trade deadline happens to be a center fielder. The catch with that is that this player, Luis Robert Jr. of the Chicago White Sox, happens to play in the AL Central. It's not impossible, but boy, is it hard to predict a trade of this magnitude taking place.

The Guardians trading for Luis Robert Jr. would break the AL Central as we know it

It's rare that we see star players in their primes like Robert get traded within their division. One example that quickly comes to mind is the Miami Marlins trading J.T. Realmuto to the Philadelphia Phillies. How has that gone for Miami? The White Sox certainly won't be rushing to send Robert to their division rivals. Despite that, Jim Bowden of The Athletic ($) lists Robert as a potential trade target for Cleveland.

"The Guardians have established themselves as one of the top six teams in MLB this season and are now the favorites to win the AL Central. However, to make a deep run in October, they need to acquire another starting pitcher, preferably one who can miss bats, and an outfield power bat."

Bowden is spot on with his assessment of what the Guardians need. They could use another starter, especially with Bieber out. They also could use a big bat to plug into their outfield. Robert certainly fits that description to a tee.

Robert is a perfect candidate for a number of reasons. He's only 26 years old, comes with tons of team control, can hit 40+ home runs in a season if healthy, and is a tremendous defender. Cleveland has every reason to covet him, but again, would the White Sox really send him inside their own division?

You'd have to think for Cleveland to even get the White Sox to seriously entertain the idea, they'd have to part with multiple top prospects. That means guys like Kyle Manzardo, Chase DeLauter, and Jaison Chourio will be discussed. Chicago might even covet a young MLB player like Tanner Bibee. The price will be outrageous in general, and even more so for a division rival in Cleveland.

With that being said, the Guardians do hypothetically have the assets at their disposal to make a deal like this happen. If they can manage to get Robert, they wouldn't only push closer to seriously competing for a World Series championship, but they'd completely break the AL Central as we've known it. The only question is, will both sides be willing to do what it takes to get this kind of deal done?