Hall of Fame debate: 5 pass/fail metrics to decide if Manny Machado is on HOF highway

Manny Machado is a lot of things — Silver Slugger, Gold Glover, Platinum Glover, All-Star — but Johnny Hustle is not one of them.

Machado has spent 13 years in the MLB and has been a part of numerous MVP discussions coming as close as runner-up. There is no doubt Machado has left an indelible mark on the game of baseball. But how important is he to the game of baseball? Would he remain to be relevant long after he retires?

Names like Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, and Shohei Ohtani seem to carry that weight. Does Machado’s? While Judge, Trout, and Ohtani may be the greatest players of this generation and potentially, all-time greats, Machado might not seem like he stacks up to this high standard. But Machado doesn’t need to be the best. The true measure of a player’s collective contributions can withstand the test of time is a spot in the Hall of Fame. With that said, is Manny Machado Hall-of-Fame-worthy?

To be immortalized in the halls of Cooperstown, baseballers need to have a track record of success over the course of years. One season of baseball excellence, no matter how great, cannot earn anyone a much-coveted plaque in the HOF.

Over his 13 years of experience, Machado has posted some pretty good numbers. If he retired today, he would be eligible for a plaque in Cooperstown in five years. But how do we judge if his numbers are worthy of it?

To start, Machado should have at least five years of HOF-worthy stats. Any seasons that qualify, we’ll refer to as HOF years. To determine which years qualify as HOF years, we’ll run Machado’s yearly stats through five parameters. Passing any parameter alone makes a statement, but nailing any two parameters in the same season makes a near-bulletproof case for a HOF year. Now to put Manny Machado’s record to the test.

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1. 40+ home run total

Nothing says elite power threat like a hitter that can smash 40 home runs a single season. As we’ve seen before, consistently hitting home runs is a talent that might land someone in the HOF. When HOF voters look through the stats of a prospective HOFer, a 40-homer season is certainly eye-catching.

One example of this would be HOFer Reggie Jackson. But at a glance, you might notice Jackson only topped 40 home runs twice in his career. True, but he did top the AL in home runs four times and the MLB once, though strangely not including the season he hit a career high of 47. He retired with a .262 average having hit 563 home runs and posting a .300 average only once in his 21-year career.

As his .262 career average suggests, he wasn’t exactly a contact hitter. His 2597 strikeouts are the most in MLB history. Of course, padding his resume were his postseason heroics. After all, he isn’t called Mr. October for nothing. How does Machado compare?

Machado has never posted a 40-home run season. His highest single-season home run total never exceeded 37 which he has posted twice. But how about 2020?

In the shortened season, Machado hit 16 HR tying him for seventh in the MLB. While very good, this doesn’t quite qualify. But I do want to make it clear that his 16 homers were quite high for the shortened season.

And while Machado has put up some good home run totals, he likely won’t land in the HOF just based on his home run totals alone. Luckily, there’s still four more parameters Machado can satisfy.

2. .300+ batting average

A .300 batting average is another item that draws plenty of consideration when looking over the HOF ballot. One prominent example of this is HOFer Rod Carew. Carew topped out at 14 home runs twice in his career, the only times he hit for home run totals in the double digits. However, he did hit above .300 for 14 seasons (with a qualifying amount of plate appearances). But there are two caveats. Carew hit for averages in the mid to high .300s during numerous seasons and he was also a threat on the bases. While a higher average is better, the low .300s is still nothing to scoff at. How does Machado fare at hitting for average?

Machado has come close on several occasions but has only done it once, posting a .304 average during the shortened 2020 season. At this point, things are not looking to good for the Machado HOF case. But we haven’t even made it to the half way mark yet.

3. Combination of really good batting average and really good home run total  

The good news is that not every year needs to have some overwhelming feat of baseball to make a solid HOF case. Sometimes, a quality season will be sufficient. But make no mistake, the HOF voters aren’t just going to let any quality season fly. Hitting .280 with over 20 home runs a season doesn't make anyone a HOFer on its own.

When determining what a HOF year should look like without a 40+ home run total or a .300+ batting average, there needs to be a balance. For instance, if you’re going to hit .275, you should at least hit 35 HR for that season for it to be considered a HOF year. If you’re going to hit .290, you should need at least need 25 HR to qualify for a HOF year. It might be a little strict, but the stricter the standards, the tighter the HOF case. How do Machado’s stats hold up? (2012 stats omitted for lack of qualifying plate appearances)

I might not be an expert, but by my count, Machado has posted 5 years’ worth of HOF stats (2015, 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022). These seasons come among several other quality seasons that might also aide his case in the future. It seems Machado is yet to have a truly bad season. Does that mean he is a real-deal HOFer? No. But there are some other little details that might further help his HOF case.

4. 5.0+ WAR

The advanced stat ‘WAR’ is often used to measure players against their peers. The calculation itself, Wins Above Average, is supposed to find the number of wins one player would achieve for their team against a replacement player, thus finding that player’s overall value. While WAR might not be a perfect measurement, it still gives us an idea of how players stack up to each other both offensively and defensively.

For this, we’ll use a WAR of 5.0 or above to qualify for a HOF year, something the great HOFer Vladimir Guerrero Sr. has done five times in his illustrious 16-year MLB career. So, how does Machado stack up? (2012 omitted)

Like Guerrero Sr, Machado has posted five years of 5.0+ WAR values. To further compare the two, Vlad Sr. posted a career WAR of 54.5 over 16 years. Machado has thus far accumulated a WAR value of 52.3 while in his 13th season.

However, there's more. Machado's WAR value in 2020 was 2.7, the seventh highest WAR value in the shortened year. This should also qualify him among the ranks of his peers that season. So, Machado should be awarded 6 HOF years based on this metric.

5. X factor

As we’ve seen with plenty of HOFers, not everyone is elected solely on the basis of their home run totals or batting average. Many have a talent that would otherwise go underappreciated. Among these are Gold Gloves, stolen bases, and the ability to get on base. Let’s use Johnny Bench as an example.

Bench never had a year where he hit over .300 (with a qualifying amount of plate appearances), but he did hit 40+ long balls twice. Perhaps his stats were only borderline HOF-worthy, though I don’t want to dilute his prowess with the bat. But it was his 10 Gold Gloves behind the dish that made his case overwhelming.

Now to set some statistical standards. The average OBP for a HOFer is .377. So, let’s shoot for anything over .370. Stolen bases are a little bit tricky to appraise. On average, HOF hitters spent 18 years in the MLB and stole a total of 211 bases. That means an average of 11.722 a year. These numbers include both Rickey Henderson and Big Papi, and there’s a wide span between Ortiz’s 17 and Henderson’s 1406. But you don’t need Rickey’s staggering stolen base totals to receive extra consideration. We’ll set the X factor qualification at 20 in a single year as long as the player maintains a success rate above 66%. Of course, more stolen bases are better. 20 might not move the needle that much, but it's a good starting point. Does Machado have any extra qualifications?

Machado won Gold Gloves in 2013 and 2015 as well as a Platinum Glove (fan-voted best defender in the AL) in 2013. In 2015, not “Johnny Hustle” stole 20 bases in 28 attempts giving him a success rate above 71 percent. His on-base percentage, however, never exceeded .370, which he managed in 2020. Unfortunately, .370 is not above .370. Am I splitting hairs? Yes, but this is the HOF. An OBP of .370 is perfectly acceptable, but anything closer to the cumulative average OBP of HOF hitters (.377) makes a much better case.

It’s hard to defend denying Machado on a shortcoming of a tenth of a percent, but if you’ve ever scored 69 percent on a test before, you know the frustration. While great, his .370 OBP is not overwhelmingly qualifying. As it stands, there are several players (non-steroid taking players) with overwhelming numbers that haven’t been elected to the HOF. When trying to make a case overwhelming, you can’t compromise.

Conclusion

Is Manny Machado on the HOF highway? Before we draw any premature conclusions, let’s see where he exceeds our standards. (2012 stats omitted)

By the looks of it, Machado has a maximum of six HOF years. Machado has never, to this point, had a bad year. But it looks as though a HOF case for Machado is a bit of a borderline scenario. If he retired today, his HOF case could fall either way. Machado's never posted truly overwhelming numbers. But by my count (disclaimer: I'm not a HOF expert and I'm not currently a member of the BBWAA, thus I'm not eligible to vote on HOF ballots), five of six potential HOF seasons would be very hard to dispute. If I were voting on Machado, it would be hard to pass on him. Still, there were others with similar HOF credentials that are not in the HOF.

Bernie Williams hit 30 home runs once in his 16-year career but exceeded 20 seven times. Williams might not have been a huge home run threat, but he often combined his quality home run totals with high batting averages. Williams hit over .300 eight times in his career, three of those times being over .330. In addition, Williams won four Gold Gloves. He retired with a career .297 batting average, 287 HR, a .381 OBP, and having won an ALCS MVP award. Sadly, he is not in the HOF.

That doesn't mean Machado will be overlooked, but it is a cautionary tale. One thing in his favor is his career home run total of 335. HOF voters usually tend to favor power over batting average. In any case, Machado's career is still going strong. He still has time to pad his resume before he retires. But, if he were to retire today, his chances of landing in the HOF someday are looking pretty good.