Have the Cubs been eliminated from the playoffs?

UPDATE: Yes.

The Marlins' victory on Saturday over the Pirates ended Chicago's postseason hopes.

The Chicago Cubs have seemingly fumbled the season away during the final stretch of games. They still have a shot to make the playoffs, but the odds don’t favor them.

The Cubs have been in a tight final playoff run against the Cincinnati Reds and Miami Marlins. In the last 10 games, the Cubs and Reds have seemingly started to give up, only going 4-6, while the Marlins have shocked everyone by going on a tear in September and winning 6 out of the last 10 games.

After losing two of three against the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Cubs went on a tear, sweeping the Rockies in a three-game series before getting swept by the Braves in another three-game series. The Cubs are in their final stretch of games versus the Brewers, but so far, that hasn’t started well, as they lost their first game 4-3 on a Carlos Santana 10th-inning walk-off single.

The Cubs were 42-47 at the All-Star break. With many counting them out, they turned it around and shocked everyone by going on a 40-31 run. But now it seems too late for them to make the playoffs, as they only hold a record of 82-78.

Have the Cubs been eliminated from the playoffs? Not yet

According to FanGraphs’ playoff odds, the Cubs only have a four percent chance to make the playoffs, while the Reds have a 10.6 percent chance, and the Marlins have a 90.9 percent chance, almost ensuring their clinching of the third wild-card spot.

The Cubs and Reds are both 82-78 and are one and a half games behind. But the Marlins are playing the Pittsburgh Pirates, and if they can win on Saturday with a Reds and Cubs loss, they will clinch a postseason spot. The Marlins still could have a game to make up, so unless the Pirates can win the rest of their games versus the Marlins, it’s almost guaranteed that the Marlins will knock them out.

It’s sad to see the Cubs get eliminated, but it seems most likely now, and they should, after the way they performed in 2023. They must decide if they want to move on from David Ross because, in close games within one run, they had a record of 21-24. But if you are a playoff team, you need higher than that.

In addition to losing in close games, the Chicago Cubs have been underperforming according to Pythagorean Win-Loss, which estimates they should have a record of 89-70 versus the current record of 82-77. All statistics show they should be in the postseason already, but under Ross, they’ve failed to meet expectations with such a talented team.