History is against the Green Bay Packers with Josh Jacobs contract

Following the 2023 season, Green Bay Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst referred to running back Aaron Jones as "the heartbeat of our team." Las Vegas Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce echoed similar sentiments about running back Josh Jacobs, describing him as "the heart and soul of the team." In that case, both teams ripped out their own hearts.

The Packers began the offseason by releasing Jones after seven incredible seasons. Unlike many teams across the league, the Packers haven't abandoned investing in the running back position. They quickly replaced their heartbeat by signing Jacobs to a four-year, $48 million contract. While Jacobs brings a versatile skillset and reason for excitement, the investment in a star running back could also bring reason for concern.

While many teams have electing to find bargain options at running back, that hasn't been the case for the Green Bay. Although the Packers have the fifth-best bettings odds to win the Super Bowl in 2024, recent history isn't on their side as they continue to invest heavily in the running back position.

History advises against the Packers' investment in Josh Jacobs

Since 2009, 14 of the 15 Super Bowl championship teams were led by a running back with a $2 million or lower salary. The Kansas City Chiefs won three championships with either a committee approach or seventh-round running back Isiah Pacheco. The New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles utilized LeGarrette Blount in three Super Bowls, while New England won another championship with rookie Sony Michel.

The lone outlier was the Seattle Seahawks, who paid running back Marshawn Lynch a salary of $7 million in 2013. That was the last time the lead running back for a Super Bowl champion made a salary above the league average, but it was balanced out by the $526,217 salary being paid to quarterback Russell Wilson, who was still on his rookie contract.

While teams that have invested in running backs haven't been able to win the Super Bowl, they've still managed to come close. The San Francisco 49ers, for example, were an overtime possession away from winning a title with the highest-paid running back in the league. The Cincinnati Bengals came close with Joe Mixon in 2021, while the Los Angeles Rams nearly accomplished the feat with Todd Gurley in 2018.

Running backs Jim Brown, Walter Payton, and Eric Dickerson were once key figures in their team's Super Bowl aspirations. Offensive football used to operate through the ground game, but rule changes in the early 2000s ushered in an era of aerial superiority. As quarterbacks and wideouts reign supreme, running backs have slowly become devalued. In the modern day, Super Bowl teams have been comprised of underpaid, serviceable running backs.

While most positions have seen their salaries skyrocket, only five running backs are slated to earn more than $10 million in 2024. That's a stark contrast to the 21 quarterbacks and 29 wide receivers that will earn more than a double-digit salary.

Along with the increased salary, few running backs manage to stay competitive as they begin to age. Only three running backs who were 29 or older at the start of last season reached 300-plus yards rushing: Latavius Murray (300), Raheem Mostert (1,012) and Derrick Henry (1,167). In the Super Bowl era, only 26 running backs have recorded 1,000-yard rushing seasons after turning 30, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Of those 26 backs, 13 of them had 1,000-yard seasons multiple times in their 30s.

Green Bay could certainly defy the odds, of course. The championships are likely more related to quarterback play than they are to running back salaries.