Houston Open 2024 picks and best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

Out of Florida and onto Texas is the mantra of the PGA Tour this week as the golf heads to the 2024 Texas Children's Houston Open this week at Memorial Park. This will be the fourth consecutive season that the tour has played this event at the Tom Doak redesigned course, but it will also represent a stark change with the tournament moving from the fall to March on the calendar. That, however, won't have much sway on our Houston Open picks for the week.

Though it is an unknown factor, I don't expect the change in time of year for this venue and tournament will be a huge factor. Scottie Scheffler, on the other hand, will be a huge factor. The No. 1 player in the world is teeing it up in his home state this week coming off of back-to-back wins at the API and THE PLAYERS. Will he 3-peat? The odds certainly think so given that he's a shocking +260 to win this week.

But we won't have any Scheffler in our Houston Open picks. I'll bet a favorite squarely, but even that is too great of odds for me to touch this week. That leaves us looking for guys who have had success here but also fit the bill for a wide course with little penal rough where these players could thrive. With that, let's get into the best bets and hope to continue some good momentum after gaining nearly 5.0 units last week.

Note: All odds are courtesy of BetMGM unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

Golf betting record in 2024 through Valspar: 11-59-0, -5.33 Units (1-23 on outrights and longshots | +4.9 units at Valspar) | One and Done Total for 2024: $6,017,962 (Doug Ghim at Valspar, $17,388)

PGA Tour expert picks for the Houston Open: Winner, Top 10 and One and Done

Top 10 pick for the Houston Open: Keith Mitchell (+300)

All we need is for Keith Mitchell to not blow up on the weekends and we'll be sitting oh-so-pretty. Mitchell imploded on the weekend at THE PLAYERS after a strong start, then did the same on Sunday at the Valspar, though he still finished T17 for the week, which speaks to how well he's ball striking. Memorial Park should suit him perfectly with his ability off the tee and vastly improved approach play -- he's gained 1.68 strokes ball striking per round over his last 20. The short game and collapse potential worry me, but I think he's trending toward a big one.

Outright Winner pick for the Houston Open (0.5 Units): Si Woo Kim (+3000)

Look, is Scottie Scheffler probably going to win? Given his odds and form, yeah, that would check out. But if not, I'm going to go a bit beyond the favorites down the board and hitch my wagon to Si Woo Kim. The overall numbers might not look the greatest, particularly with the short game, but losing 8.6 strokes putting at the API is the biggest factor there. Overall, his game has been sharp, gaining 1.19 strokes ball striking over his last 20 rounds and bouncing back with the putter at THE PLAYERS after the API to finish T6 (he also finished T30 at Bay Hill despite the putting). He's a popper who gives you signs, and the signs are there with his game that he could win this week.

One and Done pick for the Houston Open: Sahith Theegala

We'll unpack some more with Sahith Theegala a bit more in our best bets, but this really boils down to him being an ideal fit for Memorial Park. He was T22 at this event the last time it was played, but his consistency and short game have improved exponentially since then. Thus, as one of the better players in the field, I'm confident backing him this week.

Houston Open picks: More best bets for PGA Tour

Sahith Theegala to finish Top 5 at the Houston Open (+350)

Told you that we'd get to Sahith quickly. Theegala's biggest issues have long been consistency and driving accuracy. The former seems to have been fixed while the latter is not an issue at the Houston Open. Then you throw in that he's been gaining 0.96 strokes with the putter in his last 16 rounds and has three Top 10 finishes in his last four starts while also gaining with the driver (0.52 strokes) and on approach (0.27 strokes) over the same timeframe. It all adds up to a big week for Theegala and I very much expect him to be contending to win.

Matti Schmid to finish Top 20 at the Houston Open (+350)

Remember the big ballpark talk? That's why I'm pretty enamored with Matti Schmid this week. He's an absolute bomber when he can be, which is the case at Memorial Park. But what's more promising is that he's coming off of three straight Top 26 finishes at Puerto Rico, THE PLAYERS and the Valspar, most notably the last two events where bombing isn't the ideal option. The big man is putting well, gaining 0.77 strokes on the greens in his last eight measured rounds, and has been a dead-even overall approach player basically. He appears to be finding some great form and this is a perfect place to showcase that.

Joel Dahmen and Jake Knapp to both finish Top 40 at the Houston Open (+405, FanDuel)

We're getting cheeky here as both Joel Dahmen and Jake Knapp I believe could contend this week. But taking them in a Top 40 parlay is quite tasty with having that safety net. Dahmen has been on a tear with ball-striking, but has been bleeding strokes with the short game. The short game test in Houston, though, should be lesser than in Florida, which may improve that. So the 2.41 strokes gained ball striking over his last eight rounds stands out. As for Knapp, Memorial Park has been compared to Torrey Pines for Farmers and Vidanta for the Mexico Open. That was a T3 and a win for Knapp. He didn't show well at the API or THE PLAYERS, but this should suit his skill set as a bomber and ball striker perfectly.

Longshot Pick to win the Houston Open (0.1 Units): Robert Macintyre (+12000, FanDuel)

The numbers aren't going to wow you with Robert Macintyre, without question. But so much of that is a disastrous ball striking week at THE PLAYERS over two rounds. He's gained ball striking in five of the last six measured events, including when he finished T6 at Mexico. These wide, low-rough, and long tracks suit Macintyre, who actually leads the PGA Tour this season in proximity from 200+ yards on approach. It feels like he's due again at this fit of a course at the Houston Open to pop up on the leaderboard again and potentially win.