Houston Rockets Lottery odds: What are the chances of landing the No. 1 pick?

The Houston Rockets have used a lot of NBA Draft capital over the past few seasons. They selected Jalen Green with the No. 2 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft and traded up to select Alperen Sengun at No. 16. They selected Jabari Smith with the No. 3 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft and landed solid contributor Tari Eason at No. 17. In 2023, they selected Amen Thompson at No. 4 and Cam Whitmore at No. 20.

That's three top-five picks in three years, along with three relative steals on late first-round picks. That's a lot of future potential and the Rockets made a move toward playoff contention by signing Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks last offseason for some veteran scaffolding. But the Rockets still came up woefully short and couldn't even secure a spot in the NBA Play-In Tournament.

They were more competitive than in year's past and have longer odds at the No. 1 pick but they could end up with two lottery picks and another chance at landing a franchise-changing star.

What are the Rockets chances at the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft?

The Rockets are in a somewhat unique position because they have their own pick and the Nets pick, unprotected. They also owe their own pick to the Thunder but it's protected No. 1-4, so if they move up, they keep that one as well.

The Nets' pick has a 4.5 percent chance of landing at No. 1 and a 20.3 percent chance of moving into the top four. Their own pick has a 1.5 percent chance of moving to No. 1 and a 7.1 percent chance of moving into the top 4. That gives them a combined 6.0 percent chance at No. 1 and a 27.4 chance at at least one top four pick, roughly equivalent to the Jazz, who finished with the eighth-worst record in the league this season. The Rockets also have a roughly 1.4 percent chance of both of those picks landing in the top four.

The Warriors' pick is protected No. 1-4. If they don't leap into the top four, they owe that pick to the Trail Blazers.

Who could the Rockets take with the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft?

The Rockets have so much young talent on the team and minutes are already so tight their draft board at the No. 1 pick might be much smaller than some other teams. They already have Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks as veteran anchors. They have Alperen Sengun manning the middle. They have Jalen Green has a high-volume perimeter scorer, and then a slew of versatile, two-way wings and forwards like Jabari Smith, Cam Whitmore, Tari Eason and Amen Thompson to fill in the gaps around them.

Where they could really use help is size and interior defense which should pretty clearly bring one prospect to the top of their list. According to Chris Kline's latest FanSided NBA Draft Big Board, there is really only one prospect who could fit the bill for the Rockets at No. 1.

• Alex Sarr — An incredibly mobile and athletic 7-footer, Sarr has the potential to be a long-term defensive anchor, protecting the rim but also switching out and defending in space. His offensive game is a work in progress but his size and mobility give him a path to contribute, even if he's primarily just a finisher. Read our full Alex Sarr scouting report here.

How many times have the Rockets won the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft?

The Houston Rockets have had the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft five times but only once because they won the NBA Draft lottery. In 1968 they took Elvin Hayes at No. 1. In 1976, they took John Lucas. They then had back-to-back No. 1 picks in 1983 and 1984, selecting Ralph Sampson and Hakeem Olajuwon. The NBA Draft Lottery was instituted before the 1985 Draft. Since then, the only time the Rockets have landed the No. 1 pick was in 2002, when they selected Yao Ming.

If you're keeping track at home, that's five No. 1 picks and four future Hall-of-Famers.

When is the NBA Draft Lottery?

The NBA Draft Lottery will be held Sunday, May 12 in Chicago, at 3:00 p.m. ET and televised on ESPN.