How do MLB tiebreakers work? Twins and Tigers battle for AL Wild Card
The Detroit Tigers have been one of MLB's hottest teams since the trade deadline. Despite a flurry of sell-off moves that signaled a resolution to mediocrity, Detroit has found a second, third and fourth gear down the stretch. The Tigers are currently tied with the Minnesota Twins in a competitive AL Central, 80-73. That means both teams are presently tied for the third (and final) American League Wild Card spot.
It has been far too long since the Tigers were in the playoffs, so this is an fairly stunning development. So long has Detroit been steeped in failure, that it was hard to imagine a team with 2.8 percent postseason odds in August making this sort of run. Credit where credit is due, this Tigers team has put the pieces together just in the nick of time.
Minnesota has been trending in the wrong direction, 4-6 in its last 10 games compared to Detroit's 8-2 record in the same span. The Twins have a tougher schedule at the close, while Detroit has all the momentum (and six games against the Rays and White Sox to finish out the campaign).
However it breaks, odds are that this race will go down to the wire. So, let's dive in to tiebreaker scenarios in general, and the various forces at play here.
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How do MLB tiebreakers work?
All tiebreakers in the MLB are resolved mathematically.
- Head to head: The first tiebreaker for all stalemates is head-to-head record. Essentially, the team who wins the season series against the other team is awarded a postseason berth.
- Intradivision record: If the head-to-head record is tied, then the next determining factor is intradivision record. The team with the best record against their own division earns a spot in the playoffs or the higher seed.
- Interdivision record: In the event that head-to-head and intradivision records are both the same, interdivision record becomes the tiebreaker. That means the team with the best record against their league (National or American), but outside their division, gets the nod.
- Second half intraleague record: While it's hard to fathom this scenario playing out, if all three of the above categories result in a deadlock, MLB's next tiebreaker is intraleague games over the second half of the season. In short, the team with the best record against their own league, AL vs. AL or NL vs. NL, over the final half of the campaign, earns the higher seed.
- Second half intraleague record—plus one: If the baseball gods are cruel enough to render that a tie as well, the MLB deploys a clever mathematical trick to ensure that, eventually, a winner emerges. The outcome of the final intraleague game of the second half of the season is used to determine the higher seed. If the outcome is the same, the league moves to the next game, and so on and so forth until a discrepancy at long last emerges.
Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins AL Wild Card tiebreakers, explained
This means that if Detroit and Minnesota end the season with the same record, a number of factors could determine which team advances to October. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record. Minnesota won the season series against Detroit, so the Tigers will need to finish with an outright better record in order to surpass Minnesota in the postseason race.
It's that simple. So, while Detroit has moved heaven and earth to achieve a tie in the standings, there is more to be done — and plenty of motivation for Minnesota to keep scrapping over the final week and change of the regular season.
That said, we are in danger of a three-team tie. The Kansas City Royals are only two games ahead of Detroit and Minnesota, while the Baltimore Orioles are five games up with a three-game series against Detroit on the docket.
In the event of a three-team deadlock, the math can get a bit more confusing. Here is it, as explained by MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince.
"If the three clubs DO NOT all have identical records against one another and Team X has a better record against Teams Y and Z, then Team X is the qualifier. If Team X and Y have identical records against one another and each has a better record against Team Z, then Teams X and Y follow the two-club tiebreaker rules to determine the qualifier. Otherwise, the three clubs are ranked by their overall winning percentage against one another, and the club with the highest overall winning percentage is the qualifier. If two of the clubs have identical winning percentages in this scenario, then they would follow the two-club tiebreaker procedure."
Essentially, Detroit would still be at a disadvantage having lost the season series against Minnesota and Kansas City. Detroit does have a chance to claim the season series against Baltimore this weekend, though.
So... buckle in, folks. A lot can happen over the next nine days and we should have plenty of postseason prognosticating on the horizon. Best of luck to the Detroit and Minnesota fans out there. It's bound to get stressful.