Insider isn’t willing to give Aaron Judge AL MVP just yet

It’s another historic year in the Bronx for the New York Yankees’ star slugger. Aaron Judge recently became the fastest player to 300 home runs in MLB history. By the looks of it, Judge is this year’s AL MVP. But hold on for a second, Ken Rosenthal sees a close competition brewing.

In his article in the Athletic, Rosenthal details the case for both Judge and Bobby Witt Jr, comparing it to Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge in 2022, a race that was won by Judge’s AL record setting 62 home runs.

While it seems Judge is making another run at a record setting home run total, could Witt Jr really be the true AL MVP? Let’s go through the numbers.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop between now and the MLB offseason

MLB comparison: Bobby Witt Jr. vs. Aaron Judge

In home runs, there isn’t much of a competition. Judge’s 51 long balls lead the pack by a wide margin. Witt’s 27, while good, doesn’t quite compare. One point: Judge.

However, Witt does lead the MLB in batting average. His .347 average leads Judges .333 average, but not by that wide of a margin. I don’t want to dilute Witt’s brilliant contact hitting results, but his home run and average combination doesn’t really justify any upset in the MVP results.

To further fortify Judge’s case, Judge maintains a ridiculous on-base percentage of .465 (first in the MLB) compared to Witt’s .397 (third in the MLB). Judge’s astronomical on-base percentage wipes out any lead Witt’s great batting average gives him.

Rosenthal mentions that Aaron Judge leads the MLB in home runs, RBIs, OBP, SLG, OPS and WAR. Witt Jr only leads the MLB in batting average and hits. So, what exactly gives Witt an edge?

To start, Bobby Witt Jr has been great on the basepaths. Witt is 27-12 in base stealing attempts. Aaron Judge is 6-0. Percentagewise, Judge is perfect, but his six stolen bases don’t compare to Witt’s 27. Witt is on pace for his second 30-30 season. Where else does Witt lead Judge?

On the field, Witt is the best defender in baseball. His 16.8 defensive WAR value tops Judge’s -9.6 as well as the rest of the MLB. Witt has recorded 16 outs above average (fourth in the MLB) compared to Judge’s -5.

As Rosenthal notes, Judge is one of the worst centerfielders in baseball. If you use defensive WAR, his -9.6 is the worst. Does this mean Witt rightly deserves the AL MVP this year?

According to Rosenthal, there is no wrong answer, but he does note that the award is likely Judge’s.