Is Cam Thomas’ breakout for real? 

If the NBA’s Most Improved Player award were handed out after eight games, there would be one runaway winner — Cam Thomas. 16.3 points per game isn’t what Thomas is currently averaging. It’s how many more points he’s averaging this season compared to last, and is within spitting distance of the NBA record for year-to-year points per game improvement of 17.8 set by Dale Ellis in 1986-87.  

Cam Thomas has always been a bucket

Cam Thomas has gone supernova to start the season, and while he has a long way to go to set the All-Time NBA record for year-to-year points per game improvement, he’s well on his way to setting the 21st-century record of 14.0 points per game set by CJ McCollum in 2015-16. Eight games is a terribly small sample, but Thomas isn’t getting to his 26.9 points per game by accident. He has been a legitimately fantastic bucket-getter. The only question is, can he keep it up?

If you’re locked into NBA Twitter/X, you’ve undoubtedly come across a post bemoaning Thomas’ lack of minutes in his first two seasons, and it’s no surprise why. Before this season, in Thomas’ six career starts, he averaged 33.0 points per game on 46.67 percent shooting as a first and second-year player. Thomas is now up to seven starts in eight games this season and has ‘regressed’ to only 26.9 points per game on 47.9 percent shooting. 

Thomas’ ability to fill it up was never a question. His points per 36 minutes over his first two seasons was an excellent 19.9, and he did it on acceptable efficiency (48.8 percent effective field goal percentage). The issue he faced was opportunity. 

The Nets were built around Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden — the greatest scoring trio in NBA history. Thomas’ primary skill as a scorer was an extreme luxury and saw players like Royce O’Neal and Bruce Brown, floor spacers and defenders, take priority in the rotation.  

With Durant in Phoenix, Irving in Dallas, and Harden in Los Angeles after a layover in Philadelphia, the Nets have gone from having too much scoring, if such a thing exists, to too little. Just don’t tell Cam Thomas. He’s here to score with abandon. 

Is Cam Thomas’ hot start for real?

Whenever a player produces explosive stats over a short period, it’s easy to cry regression, and you’ll almost always be correct. The question isn’t if Thomas can continue to average 26.9 points per game. It’s if he’s a legitimate high-end scoring option. 

When trying to mine a small sample for valuable nuggets, it’s always good to start with where a player gets their shots. While shot-making can rise and fall precipitously, shot quality is more stable, and Thomas has shown some very encouraging signs early this season. 15.8 percent of his shots are coming zero to three feet from the rim and 23.6 percent from three to ten feet, both career highs. He has also reduced the frequency of his shots from the mid-range while maintaining a healthy quantity of shots from three.

CAM THOMAS: PERCENT OF FIELD GOAL ATTEMPTS FROM DIFFERENT DISTANCES

Taking more shots closer to the rim is the most tried and true recipe for scoring success. Not only are those shots generally more efficient, but they’re also the areas of the court that lead to more free throws. While many elite scorers are excellent from the mid-range, it’s difficult to score efficiently if it makes up too much of your shot diet. It’s a good sign for Thomas’ long-term scoring output that he has been able to ramp up his usage, a career-high 31.8 percent, and his shot quality. 

Thomas isn’t just getting better shots. He’s also hitting many of them more efficiently. Outside of long twos and 3-pointers, he’s shooting well above his career norms on shots 16 feet and closer to the basket. 

CAM THOMAS: FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE FROM DIFFERENT DISTANCES

Over eight games, it’s difficult to know if Thomas has actually improved as a finisher in these areas or is just benefitting from a hot streak. The Nets have trotted out well-spaced lineups, almost certainly benefiting his ability to create and finish chances around the rim, but it’s still encouraging that he is making the most of it. 

While Thomas’ scoring has been making all the headlines, he has another impressive offensive trait boosting his profile. He’s only averaging 1.3 turnovers per game. Turnovers are the worst offensive outcome and should be avoided at all costs, but they’re also the product of trying to generate high-quality offense. Of players with a usage rate of 30 percent or greater, his 4.5 percent turnover rate is the lowest by a mile. 

The cost of being a high-volume scorer is usually lower efficiency and higher turnovers, but Thomas has largely been able to stave off those downsides. It’s still early, and teams may find a way to eat into his efficiency, but the start of his season is highly encouraging. 

Will the Nets continue to let Cam Thomas cook?

Unfortunately, an impediment to Thomas’ improved shot quality and finishing should rear its head in the coming weeks. The Nets lost Nic Claxton to an ankle injury in the first game of the season and continue to start Ben Simmons as their lone non-shooter. Through eight games, Thomas has only played six minutes with Claxton and Simmons on the court, two non-shooters who occupy space around the basket.

The Nets’ current small ball spaced-out lineups have them tenth in offensive rating at 115.2, but the lack of rim protection has their defense ranked 21st at 114.6, a reversal of pre-season expectations, and Thomas is the primary architect of these Bizaro-Nets. 

Per PBP Stats, the Nets have a defensive rating of 118.1 with Thomas on the court and 107.5 when he sits. Their offense has held steady at around 116.3 points per 100 possessions, but the non-Thomas minutes are propped up by unsustainable 3-point shooting (44.4 percent). The Nets’ offensive upside is far greater when he’s on the court, but the defense suffers significantly. Fortunately, reinforcements are on the way. 

Nic Claxton is scheduled to return in the near future, he’s already practicing in the G League, and his presence should help alleviate the Nets’ defensive shortcomings. However, when he is ready to reenter the starting lineup, the Nets will have to decide if they want to prioritize spacing and offense or fix their suddenly leaky defense, and Thomas could be the big loser if they opt for defense. 

If the Nets do favor defense over offense in the starting lineup, Thomas could see his role shift back to the bench as an excellent sixth man. However, he has shown enough as a scorer that the Nets may decide he’s necessary to keep their offense above water. Shams Charania also reported today that Thomas will miss the next two weeks with an ankle sprain so he may return to find the team context has changed in his absence and his role along with it.

Thomas is second in the league in isolations per game at 6.0, at a respectable 1.03 points per possession, and leads the Nets in pick-and-roll ball handler and drives per game at exceptional scoring efficiency. His pick-and-roll ball handler points per possession of 1.25 ranks third among players who average six or more possessions per game, and he’s averaging the third most points per game from drives, 13.3, on only the 19th most attempts. 

The scoring punch that Thomas is showing appears very real. He hasn’t shot particularly well from 3-point range but is getting the right shots to build a sustainable point-generating base. Even if his efficiency declines within the arc, he’s in an excellent position to offset any decline by grifting for free throws and experiencing a small positive regression from distance. Cam Thomas is a real scorer, but that’s it, which is a problem for him and the Nets. 

Will Cam Thomas be able to contribute more than just buckets?

Cam Thomas’ deficiencies are as pronounced as his scoring is impressive. He is a porous defender and appears uninterested in the concept of passing. His lack of commitment or talent in team-oriented activities makes him a difficult player to fit into a roster. Yes, the scoring is genuine and valuable, but many of the points he generates through shooting, he gives back on the other end.

The on-off numbers show just how limited Thomas’ impact on winning has been. The Nets have a negative-3.5 net rating with him on the court and are plus-13 points per 100 possessions with him on the bench. This trend has followed him every season of his career, and at the end of the day, basketball isn’t about how many 25-point-per-game scorers you roster. It’s about how many wins you accumulate.  

Asking Thomas to be a lockdown defender is not fair, but he needs to be closer to average than he is. Teams can stomach negative defensive guards, but they need to show enough fight that they aren’t a Golden Corral BBQ chicken buffet. 

Offensively, Thomas has failed to weaponize his scoring to raise the level of his teammates, a trait that all the best offensive players possess. Of the 14 players averaging over 25 points per game, his 2.1 assists per game are by far the lowest, and the three others posting sub-4.0 assists per game are Paul George, Desmond Bane, and Kyle Kuzma. George and Bane are excellent defenders and are best off-ball, while Kuzma is trying to keep the hapless Wizards afloat. 

If Thomas could ramp up his playmaking, even at the cost of a few extra turnovers, the Nets offense could go to even higher heights. Unfortunately, he is using an excellent offensive environment to boost his own statistical production and not the whole unit.  

The Nets have something in Cam Thomas. Players with his scoring ability are rare, but that ability alone doesn’t make a player great. For him and the Nets to reach their ceiling, they need him to use his gifts to raise the team’s level. Until he does that, he’ll have a hard time locking down a starting role for a decent team. The Nets may let him gun his way through the season, but that will probably cost them more wins than his points per game would have you believe.