Small sample size: Jackson Holliday drags Aaron Judge in one department

The Baltimore Orioles called up the MLB's No. 1 overall prospect, Jackson Holliday, for a brief 10-game stretch in April. It was a disaster. Holliday looked lost, completely out of his depth. It happens. He's 20. He can't legally drink yet.

Most prospects Holliday's age don't sniff the big leagues. Now, he's back for his second taste of MLB competition after Jorge Mateo landed on the IL. Baltimore has a gaping hole at second base and every motivation to see if Holliday can round into a difference-maker before the playoffs.

It has only been five games since his return to Baltimore on July 31 — we must always caution against investing in a small sample size — but so far, the return on investment is stupendous. Holliday appears to have learned the right lessons from his first MLB stint, because his swing looks crisp and his confidence is sky-high.

Across those five games, Holliday is slashing .389/.476/.778 with seven hits, two home runs, and seven RBI across 21 ABs.

Pretty, pretty good. This was his first career home run, by the way. A bonkers grand slam. The kid is going to be just fine.

Again, five games, short sample size, etc. etc., but Holliday's production looks more real than not real. His numbers are bound to regress to the mean eventually, but the mean is probably much higher than the .059 batting average Holliday sported in his first major-league stint. So great has Holliday been, that he's even outpacing Aaron Judge in one key slugging metric.

From Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun:

"[Holliday has] also been scorching the ball, even when he gets out. In April, his hard-hit rate — batted balls with an exit velocity of 95 mph or harder — was just 37.5%. Over his past five games, 11 of the 13 balls (84.6%) he’s put in play have been hit harder than 95 mph. It’s a small sample size, but it shows how locked in Holliday is. New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge is MLB’s leader in hard-hit rate at 60.8%."

Basically, Holliday has been the most fearsome slugger in baseball for the past week. And many such weeks may lie on the horizon if Holliday lives up to the hype.

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Jackson Holliday's hard-hit rate proves how dominant last week has been with Orioles

It's exceedingly uncommon to find 20-year-olds producing at Holliday's current level. The O's need to brace for an eventual return to earth, but Holliday's bat has long held the potential to change the dynamics of a Baltimore offense that is already electric at full strength. This is the Orioles' youth movement at work — an elite young core established in the MLB, with more difference-makers blossoming out of the farm system on an annual basis.

Holliday won't get a full season to showcase his talent or compete for AL Rookie of the Year, but he's going to have a chance to lock up a spot in the Orioles' lineup and stake his claim on a postseason roster spot. There's a better than even chance that Holliday is raking in the playoffs and helping Baltimore on a deep run. At 20. It's an incredible storyline. We are quite possibly witnessing the early stages of history.

That is a lot to put on a kid's shoulders, of course, and the O's fandom needs to operate with patience when necessary. Holliday is going to suffer lumps and lulls at the plate. Pitchers will figure him out, the adrenaline of his big-league opportunity will gradually wear off. S**t happens at Holliday's age, and Baltimore cannot press him too hard just because the team is gunning for the World Series.

If Holliday can maintain anything close to his current pace, however, the New York Yankees ought to feel increasingly uneasy about their chances in the AL East and the American League as a whole.