3 down, 7 to go: Jakob Ingebrigtsen’s quest for all of the distance running world records

On Sunday, August 25, Norwegian runner Jakob Ingebrigtsen accomplished a familiar feat: he won a race. He had won the 1500m in the Lausanne Diamond League three days prior. He’d won the Olympic final in the 5000m less than two weeks before that.

In winning the 3000m race at the Kamila Skolimowska Memorial meet on August 25, Ingebrigtsen broke Daniel Komen’s world record which had stood since 1996. The sturdiest record in all of track and field, albeit at a distance not contested at the Olympics, hadn’t been scratched by any of the greats who had attempted to lower Komen’s time.

Jakob’s routine, clinical, businesslike facade cracked as he crossed the finish line in 7:17.55. He celebrated wildly, by his standards. In an Instagram post soon after the race, Jakob provided the following caption:

“Making history. What it’s all about! Three down, seven to go! What’s next?”

Jakob Ingebrigtsen, a prodigal perfectionist, stated his goal for absolute perfection. “Three down, seven to go” refers to world records. Jakob Ingebrigtsen intends to break world records in every relevant distance, from the 1500m to the marathon. As of August 25, 2024, the 23-year-old Norwegian holds (at least) three.

Jakob Ingebrigtsen's 10 events

There may be some speculation as to which “three” world records Jakob references holding and which “seven” he still has to eclipse.

Officially, Jakob holds three world records and one world best. The world best designation, for his two mile performance of 7:54.10, indicates that the distance is not recognized by World Athletics. What’s spurring some discussion is that the precise events were not named in his Instagram post. He might not be counting the 1500m short track (a new term used to describe 200m tracks, whether or not they are indoor tracks) world record and might be referring only to outdoor events.

Accounting for his short track record, then it’s likely that he also intends to break the world record in the short track 3000m. Outdoor races only means it’s likely he intends to break the 3000m steeplechase world record.

In 2023 interviews, however, Jakob seemed to clarify which records were in his purview. He wants the outdoor records and specifically mentioned the 3000m steeplechase, an event he found success in as a junior. The other events, certainly, are the 1500m and mile, the 5000m, the 10000m, the half marathon, and the marathon.

The 5000m and 10000m also have road-specific world records, but it’s safe to assume that he prefers their outdoor track equivalents and isn’t thinking about less competitive road races. The 800m is out of the question. The uncommon 1000m event on the track likely involves too much of a speed component for Jakob to worry about. If we're excluding the short track 3000m, then the short track mile record of 3:47.01 must be excluded as well.

Will Jakob Ingebrigtsen make any other record attempts in 2024?

The Diamond League Final in Brussels on Sept. 13 and 14 will mark the end of the 2024 track season. With the 3000m world record, the 5000m Olympic gold, and several Diamond League circuit wins to his name, Jakob could end his season now and fans wouldn’t hassle him for the early exit.

Considering the superior fitness he showcased in setting the 3000m world record, though, it would be silly for him to stop now. There are three more meets on the schedule: Rome, Zurich, and Brussels, the Diamond League Final.

Rome, on Aug. 30, features a 5k, but the start lists are already published and Jakob isn’t entered. Zurich features a 1500m and 3000m steeplechase. The final meet, which can include slightly different events from year to year, features the following events in 2024 — 5000m, 3000m steeplechase, and 1500m.

Based on his routine the last few seasons, there is no chance that Ingebrigtsen will attempt the half marathon or marathon records this year. He’s in track shape. He also hasn’t competed in a steeplechase race since 2017, so, though his entry into the field at Brussels or Zurich would be a legendary caper, it’s highly unlikely that he would risk his health in the most dangerous event on the track.

The Zurich Diamond League meet will be a bona fide 1500m world record attempt. The standing record is 3:26.00. Jakob’s best in the 1500m, which he ran this season, is 3:26.73. His excellent 3000m record converts, on the basis of World Athletics points, to roughly 3:24.8 in the 1500m.

Conversions have to be taken with a grain of salt at the pinnacle of each event, as there is no way Jakob could run 3:24, but consensus is that he is within striking distance of the record. The chance of the record going down in Zurich is about 8 percent. If Jakob lobbies to have the distance in the meet changed to the mile, which is a slightly softer record (1303 to 1293 World Athletics points), there’s a one-in-four chance he nabs it.

The Diamond League Final schedules the men’s 1500m and 5000m on the same day. There will be pace setters and Wavelights used to help spur fast times, but it’s entirely possible that Ingebrigtsen will choose to focus on one event or will attempt come-from-behind tactics to save his energy and earn two wins.

Jakob can cap the best season in modern history with an all-out 1500m/mile record attempt in Zurich followed by a similar attempt in the 5000m in Brussels. The most likely scenario is that he finishes the season with a DL championship in at least one event and a slightly improved 1500m of 3:26.5 or thereabouts.

What about 2025 and 2026?

Once the 2024 season ends, fans can only speculate what the next season will bring and how Ingebrigtsen will structure his training and racing. Maybe he’ll skip racing indoors. Maybe he’ll decide to run cross-country.

2024 was a packed year that featured the World Indoor Championships, World Cross Country Championships, and Olympic Games. 2025 will feature World Indoor Championships in Nanjing, China and World Outdoor Championships in Tokyo, Japan. 2026 is an “off” year, with World Indoors in Torun and European Outdoor Championships in Birmingham, but no major global outdoor championship.

Though Jakob probably won’t target it, breaking the 3000m short-track world record of 7:23.81 might make a late March trip to Nanjing worth it. Attempting the indoor mile world record at the Wanamaker Mile at the Millrose Games in New York City on February 8th, 2025 would be a cataclysmic event for American track fans.

More realistically, for the 2025 outdoor season, Jakob’s focus will be on the speed-oriented events: the mile and the 1500m. Though he’ll only be 24 years old for the 2025 outdoor season, his aerobic engine is better than his speed. There’s a real concern that his body’s ability to run faster than 54.93 per 400m, which is the pace required for 3:26.00, for so many laps, might slip away after just another year or two.

Like 2024 and most of the seasons before it, every 1500m (or equivalent) race for Jakob Ingebrigtsen in 2025 will be a front-run time trial. The pace won’t necessarily always be set to the world record, but just between Diamond League meets and a couple other select European contests, he’ll probably have at least eight shots at the two records. The final in Tokyo will provide another chance to break the 1500m world record.

Since he’s already crossed off the weirder distances of the 2k, 3k, and two-mile, Jakob will focus more on the 5k. His 5k best of 12:48.45 is quite far from the world record of 12:35.36, but Jakob seems to prefer to contest that event in championship settings, and his 3k conversion brings him well below the world record (in a much more plausible conversion than the 1500m). Jakob could break 12:40 in his sleep, the last few seconds are just a matter of the right race being set up and him not being fixated on the mile-equivalent races.

The chance of Jakob breaking the world record in the 5k by the end of 2025 is 80 percent. It’s a matter of whether he focuses on it. The chance of Jakob breaking the mile or 1500m world record by the end of 2025 hovers around 30 percent. There is more glory in the 1500m, and that’s the more common event, but his execution will have to be absolutely perfect. The mile record is a bit softer, but arranging races at that distance will require a bit more negotiation.

2026 may be the year when Jakob starts to become anxious about remaining middle-distance records. If the mile or 1500m records remain (or, if someone else has improved them), there may be some more desperate attempts where Jakob is willing to risk disaster. If he comes into the year having sewn up the 1500 and mile, then he’ll trounce the 5k and will take advantage of the lack of global championships by attacking the 3000m steeplechase world record.

There is a chance of some dabbling in the 10k in 2026, but for the longer distances, Jakob still has another decade during which he could rewrite the record books. For this reason, he certainly won’t rush to the roads, and he might even save the 10k for 2028 when he will aim to run the 5k/10k double at the Los Angeles Olympics.

Through 2026, the odds of Jakob breaking the seven remaining world records (as they stand today, assuming nobody else improves them) by the end of each year are as follows:

2024 World Record predictions

• 1500m: 10%
• Mile: 2% (a 20% chance he lobbies Zurich to change the distance multiplied by a 25% chance he breaks it at Zurich)
• 3000m Steeplechase: .1% (would have to lobby Brussels or Zurich for a spot in the field)
• 5000m: 10% (would need to hop into Rome or focus on it in Brussels)
• 10000m: .5% (would need to schedule a special record-eligible race)
• Half Marathon: 0.01%
• Marathon: 0.001%

2025 World Record predictions

• 1500m: 15%
• Mile: 40%
• 3000m Steeplechase: 2%
• 5000m: 80%
• 10000m: 5%
• Half Marathon: .1%
• Marathon: .0025%

2026 World Record predictions

• 1500m: 18%
• Mile: 60% 
• 3000m Steeplechase: 20%
• 5000m: 90%
• 10000m: 40%
• Half Marathon: .25%
• Marathon: .005%

How long until the road records fall?

Jakob’s campaign for all the world records has one big unknown: when he is going to hit the roads. It’s no surprise that his dominant 3000m performance indicates an ability to break all other track records in his wheelhouse. But, 3k is thought to be Jakob’s ideal event, and there’s no telling how it may translate to the 21.1 kilometers of a half marathon or the 42.2 kilometers of a full marathon. Road running also requires different training which might take a season or two to get tuned correctly. It’s not like Jakob could run a 3:26 1500m and run a 2:02 marathon the next week. For this reason, the imagined odds of these records falling in the next few seasons are infinitesimal. 

Jakob is an aerobically-gifted athlete. Today, an estimate of his abilities would place him at 59:15 for the half marathon and 2:06:30 for the full marathon. These are exceptional times for any runner who holds world records on the track, especially one who ran a 3:26 1500m during the same season. However, these predicted times, scoring in the low 1200s on the World Athletics tables, wouldn’t be close to the records of 57:31 and 2:00:35.

The fun part about how young Jakob is is that he might not attempt to break the long-haul records until the 2030s. He might not want to be on the Olympic marathon course even in 2032, considering he’d be just 31 years old and could be world-class in the 1500m, 5000m, and 10000m at that point in time.

In the transitional period which may start around 2026, fans might expect Jakob to attempt a late or early-season half marathon. An accelerated effort would come only if he collected all remaining track records, which will definitely take until some point in 2026 if the steeple and 10k are included. The absolute earliest Jakob could take down the (existing) full marathon world record would be 2029.

Might Jakob pick up any other World Records or World Bests before He retires?

On his quest for perfection, Jakob will flirt with some other less common records. The full list is mind-numbing, but all of these are worth mentioning because, every once in a while, a meet director will get the idea to incentivize a world record attempt. Star athletes may also use off distances to build their confidence and expand their repertoire. What follows are brief thoughts on each one and how they might be approached. It’s very likely that J. Ingebrigtsen owns several of these by the time he steps out of the spotlight.

Outdoor Track

1000m (2:11.96, Ngeny)

It’s unlikely that Ingebrigtsen is interested in racing this distance. A prime Makhloufi tried to break the record in 2015 and ended up more than a second off. This is much better suited for an 800m specialist moving up, not a runner who sometimes has issues with closing speed in the 1500m.

2000m Steeplechase (5:10.68, Mekhissi-Benabbad)

Most fans don’t know that this is a contested track event. It’s not just for junior athletes, though the all-time list is sparse. If Jakob ends up in a dreamlike scenario where he gets a month to focus on the steeplechase and then leave it behind forever, he could attempt the 2k and 3k steeple in short order. He has the speed to tackle this soft record, which is worth only 1228 points.

One Hour Run (21,330m, Farah)

The one-hour run is a flipped race format where runners try to run as much distance as possible before the clock expires. When Mo Farah broke the record in this gimmicky format, it was essentially his farewell track race in Brussels. Jakob could likely break this record today if he doesn’t get dizzy while circling the track so many times.

Short Track

Mile (3:47.01, Kejelcha)

Already having the 1500m mark on short tracks, Jakob will only race this if he gets a major sponsor incentive to race a special mile race, perhaps at the Millrose Games in New York City.

2000m (4:49.99, K. Bekele)

Any Keninisa Bekele record is one worth gunning for, but Jakob won’t want to sacrifice precious winter training time to sharpen for an indoor off-distance race. Bekele’s mark here is worth 1280 points.

Two Miles (8:00.67, Kerr)

Jakob already has the outdoor record but might find some satisfaction in stealing this one from his rival Josh Kerr. Kerr’s record, which this author witnessed, is some of his finest work, and it would take an absolutely peaked athlete to break it. Kerr’s record is scored at 1310 while Jakob’s outdoor 3k scored 1320 and his outdoor two mile scored 1304.

5000m (12:49.60, K. Bekele)

The indoor 5k is a brutal event, and if the field isn’t carefully managed, stragglers could impede whoever is trying to break the world record. This event isn’t contested at World Indoors and it’s hard to imagine what circumstances would bring Ingebrigtsen to the track to attempt this.

Road

Road Mile (3:54.50, Wanyonyi)

Jakob could break the mile record on the roads any day of the week. This is a new event and the world record has been getting cut down regularly. A record in this event wouldn’t bolster Jakob’s legacy in any meaningful way, and he has no reason to contest it.

5000m (12:49, Aregawi)

Berihu Aregawi, who finished closest to Jakob in the 3k, clocked a very competitive time in the road 5k in 2021. Jakob could break this mark but it would be silly to do that before he owns the record on the track.

10000m (26:24, R. Kipruto)

Seeing as Rhonex Kipruto is serving a doping ban and that the road 10k could be a nice stepping stone to a half marathon, there’s extra incentive for Jakob to blast a road 10k at some point in the next decade. This race, at 1285 points, is a tough road record.

15000m (41:05, Cheptegei)

The Zevenheuvelenloop race in the Netherlands has produced the majority of the top fifty all-time performances in this event. If Jakob decides to enter this November race instead of a Turkey Trot, he can vanquish this mark. 

10 Miles (44:04, Bernard Kibet)

The 10-mile road distance is dominated by Kenyans at a variety of venues, adding to the intrigue of this off-event. If the time comes for Jakob to race ten-ish miles, it’s possible that it would be a simulation for a half-marathon world record attempt.

20000m (55:21, Tadese)

The 20km race is a forgotten event. It’s too close to the half-marathon distance of 21.1km. The last time someone broke into the top 15 was in 2017, and before that, 2010. The 20km world record is Zerseney Tadese’s 55:21. However, that record is almost definitely eclipsed by Jacob Kiplimo’s 57:31 half marathon. Kiplimo having run 2:43.1 per kilometer means that his en-route 20km split was in the range of 54:30, much faster than that world record. Unless a well-funded race emerges, it’s likely that the true world record in this distance will always be an en-route split from a half marathon. 

Is there any chance of Jakob holding all 10 records concurrently?

There is a future where Jakob has broken all ten of the records. The future where he has broken and actively holds the records from 1500m to marathon is different, and much less likely.

The numbers stack up like this: the chance of him breaking all 10 records by the end of his career is probably around 2 percent. The chance of him running under the remaining seven records as they stand today, excluding new marks, is closer to 5 percent. The chance of him holding the 1500m, mile, 2k, 3k, 3k steeple, 2 mile, 5k, 10k, half marathon, and marathon records simultaneously is .05 percent or less.

Anyone wondering “why so low?” must understand that the marathon is a grueling event and Jakob is as of yet unproven at the distance. The perception that he might be able to break all the records speaks to his incredible accomplishments — before this season even the most optimistic fans would have thought this type of analysis to be a bridge too far.

Jakob will only get two — maybe three if he really pushes it — shots at running a fast marathon each year, once he decides to focus on the marathon. Inclement weather (heat, wind, driving rain) could sully an attempt. Marathon course certification is a long and involved process, and planning big-city marathons can take months, so athletes and their managers can’t manifest record-eligible marathon races as they can record-eligible track races.

Even if Jakob holds all track records by the time he hits the roads, the best-case scenario would be him cracking the half and full within two years. It could take him the better part of a decade to conquer the marathon. Other athletes won’t be standing still in the interim. There are athletes on the circuit right now who have non-zero chances of breaking records whenever they step onto the track, and as the years pass by and training methods and technologies improve, there will be serious attempts made at Ingebrigtsen’s existing records.

If he’s deep into marathon training in his early thirties, he won’t be able to respond to every challenger looking to snag a world record he holds. A male marathoner won’t have the fitness to drop down to the 1500m and hold off someone who thinks he’s in 3:25 shape. Even if Jakob was in 5k/10k shape, in five years there will be a totally new crop of athletes attacking mid-distance records like his 2000m.

Records are meant to be broken. Jakob Ingebrigtsen is on his way to breaking all of them, showcasing a range of fitness with no precedent in the modern era of athletics. Though he has left some things up for interpretation, and in doing so has invited spirited analysis, Jakob himself probably does not intend to hold all records concurrently. But, by the time the 2024 season ends, he just might have won another race, and then will only have six to go.