How rare is Jasson Dominguez's first AB home run?

On Sept. 1, 2023, Jasson Dominguez of the New York Yankees hit a home run in his first-ever MLB at-bat. It is certainly an auspicious beginning to his career and something to celebrate but also stirs up a handful of questions in regards to this feat.

The first, naturally, is just how many MLB players have hit a home run in their first at-bat in the big leagues?

How many MLB players have homered in their first at-bat?

Dominguez is the 135th player in MLB history to hit a home run in his first big league at bat. On April 16, 1887, George Tibeau and Mike Griffin became the first players ever to do this. Three of the players to achieve this did it with inside-the-park home runs, while six players hit grand slams in their first career at-bats. 52 players have homered in their first at-bat in the last 20 years. Bob Nieman and Keith McDonald are the only players to hit home runs in their first two career at-bats.

Does hitting a home run in your first at-bat mean you will have a great career?

Not necessarily. In fact, historically, players who have hit home runs in their first at-bat have gone on to some pretty forgettable careers. Of the 135 players to hit a round-tripper on their first try, only 31 are Hall of Fame eligible (played 10 seasons and have been retired for five years), and only two players have been elected (Earl Averill and Hoyt Wilhelm). For 23 players, that first home run would be the only one they ever hit.

The most home runs hit in a career by a player who homered in his first at-bat is 360, by Gary Gaetti. Carlos Lee (358), Jermaine Dye (325), Will Clark (284), and Aaron Judge (248) round out the top five.

Judge is the leader among active players, and also has the most home runs ever in a season by a player with a first at-bat home run (62). Tyler Austin, who was a teammate of Judge, and also homered in his first at-bat in the same game that Judge did, hit a total of 33 career home runs in the MLB, and now plays for the Yokohama DeNA BayStars of the Nippon Professional Baseball League (NPB).

Congratulations to Jasson Dominguez. Since 1876, of the 20,490 players to play professional baseball in the United States, the 135 players who have homered in their first at-bat represent six-tenths of 1%. It was a historic first at-bat, and hopefully, it leads to a historic career.