JJ McCarthy's so-called expert projections mean nothing, and Vikings fans know it

The Minnesota Vikings' plans took a turn when it was announced that J.J. McCarthy will miss the entire 2024 campaign as he recovers from a torn meniscus. The No. 10 pick in April's NFL Draft, there was a real belief that McCarthy could see first-team reps sooner than later for a Vikings team itching to move on from Kirk Cousins.

Now it's all Sam Darnold, all the way. That is how the Vikings expected to start the season — with the former top-3 pick under center, testing his value in a superb offensive ecosystem — but I'd wager that Minnesota did not plan or hope to finish the season with Darnold calling the shots. McCarthy is clearly positioned as the future of Vikings football. He is inexperienced relative to his peers, so a patient hand was always necessary, but McCarthy is a champ, a proven winner. The natural talent frequently popped at Michigan when he was actually allowed to use it.

Instead, the Vikings will redshirt McCarthy by default. Darnold figures to spend this season as a sort of mediocre stopgap while every Minnesota fan awaits McCarthy's debut in 2025 with bated breath. It's unfortunate for McCarthy and for the Vikings, but injuries are a natural side effect of football. It happens. At his age, with his athletic profile, at his position, McCarthy should be able to return to form eventually.

That said, some NFL scouts are wondering how McCarthy would have fared this season.

NFL scouts think J.J. McCarthy had major upside in rookie season

According to Jeff Howe of The Athletic, league executives harbored high hopes for McCarthy as a rookie. He was the fifth QB off the board on draft night, but that did not temper expectations whatsoever.

"QuarterbackJ.J. McCarthy’s torn meniscus was a tough one to swallow," writes Howe. "Prior to the injury, rival coaches and executives debated whether the Michigan product would’ve had the best season among the six first-round rookie QBs."

That is... quite a take from those anonymous coaches and execs. McCarthy was an extremely buzzy name before the draft, but if we want to exercise cold, hard logic, the highest expectations should belong to the most experienced rookie QB — Bo Nix, who spent five seasons at the helm of Power Five offenses.

More realistically, Caleb Williams will be saddled with the highest expectations as the No. 1 overall pick. It's only natural. Jayden Daniels emerged from relative nowhere to win the Heisman and become the No. 2 pick. Drake Maye has been soaring up draft boards for a couple years now. It's unclear why McCarthy, the least battle-tested of first-round quarterbacks, would be ordained with such lofty projections.

The only real explanation would be team context. The Vikings are built to maximize whoever lines up under center, featuring the NFL's top wideout in Justin Jefferson, a top-five tight end in T.J. Hockenson, and a tremendous supporting cast all around. Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones. Sam Darnold won't lack for weapons.

Other rookie QBs are stepping into less established offenses. In that sense, sure, McCarthy was set up for success. There's no point in dwelling on what could have been, though. The Vikings should still feature plenty of offensive firepower when McCarthy takes the reins next season. Until then, let the spotlight rest, and focus on the rookie quarterbacks who are actually due to perform in 2024.