John Deere Classic picks 2024: Expert picks, best bets for TPC Deere Run

One week until we head across the pond for both the Scottish Open and The Open Championship, we make our final PGA Tour stop prior to that with this week's 2024 John Deere Classic. Hosted again by TPC Deere Run, a short Par 71 course that demands great wedge play, driving accuracy and a solid short game, all of what most people are talking about this week is the field.

Jordan Spieth is the biggest name remaining in the field after Patrick Cantlay was forced to withdraw early in the week. Sungjae Im is then probably the second-most notable name -- and the favorite -- at the John Deere Classic before we get into a lot of players who are either higher-end names struggling currently or players trying to break through this season.

For the second straight week, our expert picks were one stroke away from an outright as we had Davis Thompson to win and he came up T2. But we're dancing around a big winner right now, and we're going to have a good one if we keep to it with our 2024 John Deere Classic picks and best bets.

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Golf betting record in 2024 through Rocket Mortgage: 21-148-0, -43.13 Units (1-64 on outrights and longshots | -4.6 units at Rocket Mortgage) | One and Done Total for 2024: $14,342,927 (Davis Thompson at Rocket Mortgage, $616,400)

John Deere Classic picks for Winner, Top 10, One and Done

Top 10 pick for the John Deere Classic: Davis Thompson (+225)

He didn't win last week but Davis Thompson made good on what we've been seeing from the youngster over the past few months and, really, for most of the year as well. So now, let's bet him to do again what he's done in each of the past two tournaments -- Rocket Mortgage and US Open -- which is finish inside the Top 10. Thompson has been a Top 20 player in this field on approach over the last 20 rounds but is also third in SG: Total, sixth in SG: Around-the-Green, 12th in Birdie or Better Gained Percentage and even one of the best scorers on long Par 5s as well. He checks the boxes and his success in Detroit should show up with the same formula again this week in Moline.

Pick to win the John Deere Classic (0.5 Units): Mark Hubbard (+5500)

I'll be the first to tell you that this is me taking a swing. Mark Hubbard's best finish in his last four starts is T42 at the RBC Canadian Open, though he continued his impressive streak of having not missed a cut yet in the 2024 season. We've also seen Hubbard almost put it all together but not quite pull through. I'm thinking, however, that the John Deere could be the spot. It's been inconsistent of late but Hubbard has gained strokes in approach, around the green, and with the putter in his last 12 rounds. More importantly, he's a deadly accurate drive and a Top 6 player in the field in SG: Approach from 125-150 yards out. Oh, and let's not forget he's finished T 6 and T13 here the past two years. He'll see a lot of that this weekend and I think he pays off his play this year by contending in Moline.

One and Done pick for the John Deere Classic: Eric Cole

We've already used both Hubbard and Thompson and One and Done this season, so we had to look elsewhere and landed on Eric Cole for the John Deere Classic. We'll explain a bit more about that here shortly (that's what we in the biz like to call a teaser) but it's a pick we're confident won't burn us but also offers a ton of upside.

John Deere Classic picks: More best bets for TPC Deere Run

Harry Higgs to finish Top 20 at the John Deere Classic (+500)

The Big Rig is playing on the PGA Tour again this week and, outside of everyone obviously rooting for Harry Higgs, the form has clearly been there over the past few months. He won back-to-back weeks on the Korn Ferry Tour (gaining more than 11 total strokes in each) before missing two cuts -- including the US Open after qualifying -- but then came back and knocked out a T4 and T26. While the data isn't fully there to bet Higgs, he's clearly found something with his game and has proven his ability on KFT to go super low. I like how that fits this week and expect him to continue trending up.

Eric Cole to finish Top 20 at the John Deere Classic (+200)

After his stellar rookie season, Eric Cole struggled a bit earlier this year. Coming off of a T6 finish at Rocket Mortgage, however, this feels like a place at TPC Deere Run that could suit him. Cole has ironed out some early issues with driving accuracy of late, which is a good start. Beyond that, however, we saw him gain 3.68 strokes on approach overall last week and 4.66 strokes with his short game. Now throw in that he's Top 12 in SG: Approach from both 100-125 yards and 125-150 yards and this should suit him ideally. He has more upside than a Top 20 but getting that price for such a finish will hopefully provide a little safety net.

Andrew Novak to finish Top 20 at the John Deere Classic (+350)

There was a run in early sprin g when Andrew Novak was a Top 10 and Top 20 machine. Unfortunately, he saw that form start to fade ab it, most notably losing strokes on approach in three tournaments played in May with no finish better than T30. In the two most recent events (RBC Canadian Open and Rocket Mortage), however, Novak has gained on approach and has gotten rolling with the flat stick. The results were a T14 and T20, respectively. He seems to be rounding back into form and this is a course that should set up nicely for him to do exactly that.

Longshot pick to win the John Deere Classic (0.1 Units): Harry Higgs (+15000)

Is the John Deere Classic really that much different from a Korn Ferry event? Probably not if we're being truly honest with ourselves. So given the success of Higgs on KFT this year with two wins in the past couple of months, let's sprinkle a bit on the Big Rig to get a win on the PGA Tour as well.