25-under-25: Will Jordan Poole redeem himself in the nation’s capital?

Jordan Poole ranked No. 25 on The Step Back's 2023-24 25-under-25, ranking the best young players in the NBA. Check out the rest of the list here.

Few players have experienced as radical a shift in public perception over the course of a year as new Washington Wizards guard Jordan Poole. In October of 2022, Poole was a reigning World Champion and the heir apparent to the Golden State Warriors dynasty. Fast forward a year, and Poole is now not only not the heir apparent, but he’s been banished from the kingdom altogether. 

But how could the tide turn on Poole so quickly? Did he really get this bad this fast? I don’t think that’s the case. In fact, I think he’s in store for a bounce-back campaign in 2023-24. 

When he was on top of the world, one of his advocates’ favorite statistical signals to cite was how he was able to up his scoring and playmaking volume when Stephen Curry wasn’t sharing the floor with him. The table below illustrates the difference in his numbers with and without Curry on the floor over the last two years.

Jordan Poole with and without Stephen Curry, 2021-23

When Curry wasn’t patrolling the streets of Gotham City alongside him, Poole didn’t wilt under the pressure. He became the hero (not to be confused with the Tyler fellow) that the Warriors needed him to be. For reference, last season, Kyrie Irving averaged 35.6 points and 7.3 assists per 100. So, without Curry, Poole was producing at an Irving-caliber level (albeit on lower efficiency).

Speaking of efficiency, one of the reasons people became so low on him last year was his inefficiency. But we need to be mindful not to let our tendency as humans to over-index on what we just saw get the best of us (a phenomenon commonly known as “recency bias”). 

Last year, Poole shot just 33.6 percent from 3 during the regular season and only 25.4 percent during the playoffs. Those numbers pale in comparison to the marks he posted during his breakout 2021-22 campaign (36.4 percent and 39.1 percent, respectively). 

It wasn’t just his 3-point numbers that were down, either. He also experienced significant dips in his midrange percentages. According to Cleaning the Glass, in 2021-22, Poole shot 45 percent from the midrange in the regular season and 55 percent in the playoffs. But in 2022-23, those numbers dipped down to 42 percent in the regular season and 31 percent in the playoffs. Just imagine how different his season would look in hindsight if he just shot the way he did in 2021-22.

But how do we know that it wasn’t 2021-22 that was the statistical anomaly? As a general rule, free throw percentage is a great context-independent measure of a player’s shooting prowess. For his career, Poole is an 87.8 percent foul line converter (919 attempts). On top of that, his 2020-21 outside shooting numbers look more like his 2021-22 numbers than his 2022-23 ones. So, it’s a good bet to believe that positive regression is in his future. 

Poole is incredibly fun to watch because he inherited the bag of tricks that was commonplace among the bucket-getting showmen that ruled the 2000s. But unlike many of his predecessors, Poole can also steal the show without the ball in his hands. 

His scoring and playmaking may increase when Curry is on the bench, but his efficiency is better when they're together (60.3 true shooting percentage with Curry, 57.4 without him). This should serve as a promising indicator that when the Wizards are ready to pair him with another on-ball creator, he’ll be ready to dance with them with no problem.

But simply saying Poole can play off the ball is missing the bigger picture. A lot of players can act as spacers, make pre-programmed cuts, or attack closeouts (for the record, Poole can do all these things, too). But few can match the level of fluidity and unpredictability with which Poole travels without the basketball. There’s a whimsical nature to his movements as if we were watching a child run aimlessly around the playground. The only difference is that his improvisations are highly effective.

We know what you’re thinking. No matter how good his offense is, the guy can’t defend worth a damn. And while it is true that he is an objectively poor defender, his statistical footprint on that end isn’t that different from when we were all worshiping him. Last season, his Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus (DEF) was minus-0.2, which is actually better than it was in 2021-22 (minus-0.7, per Dunks & Threes). Funny enough, the real hit in his Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM) came on the offensive side of the ball (he went from a plus-2.2 in 2021-22 to a minus-0.2 in 2022-23). But we’ve already addressed why that should change next season. 

Another thing to note. We’ve seen in the past that offensive-first guards can improve their defense by increasing their institutional knowledge and adding more strength to their frame. In fact, his mentor (Curry) went through this very same maturation pattern. Poole and Curry also won’t be sharing the floor anymore. This gives the Wizards a chance to surround Poole with more length and put him in more favorable defensive situations. 

The bottom line is that all the signs point to Poole being on the precipice of a big year. So, don’t count him out. Because if you do, you won’t be invited to the Poole party that will take place when his redemption arc takes full form.