Jordan Poole, Austin Reaves and early season NBA On-Off Non-Stars

Individual player plus/minus and on-court net ratings have become increasingly popular in basketball analysis. They’re a simple, factual way to highlight players playing “winning basketball” and are invaluable tools in determining the best players in the league. 

Why On-Off splits matter

If you want to know the importance of on-off net rating splits, look no further than Zach LaVine and Jrue Holiday. Since 2018-19, LaVine has averaged 25.0 points per game on above-average shooting efficiency and made two All-Star teams, but his teams have been better with him on the bench. Conversely, Holiday has only averaged 19.0 points per game over that same span on worse efficiency and made one All-Star team, but across three teams, he has always had a significantly positive on-court net rating. 

Jrue Holiday vs. Zach LaVine On-Off Rating: 2018-2023

While on-court and on-off net-ratings are valuable tools in player analysis, they take a long time to be informative. Six seasons is enough of a sample to know that Jrue Holiday impacts winning more than Zach LaVine and almost every NBA general manager would agree. However, after 10 or so games, there can be some wild on-court and on-off net ratings, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t informative. This is the surprising starting five with seriously negative on-off net ratings and their chances of turning it around. 

On-Off Non-Star point guard: Jordan Poole

The start of Jordan Poole’s Wizards career has been dreadful, to put it politely, and nothing quite illustrates it like his comical on-off net rating (well, maybe his growing list of hilarious video bloopers). Poole has the second-worst on-off net rating in the league at minus-36.2, and the only player who has been worse, Tyus Jones, has played 236 of his 268 minutes with Poole. 

The Wizards have posted an abysmal 126.9 defensive rating with Poole on the court and a surprising 105.7 offensive rating. The defensive shortcomings with Poole are understandable, but the offense is perplexing. Poole’s run-and-gun style might come with more mistakes than you would like, but it usually allows for the overall offense to have some version of success. There’s a real argument that Poole has been the least valuable player in the sport. 

It would be almost impossible for Poole to continue sporting such a pathetic on-off net rating, but there’s a good chance he remains near the bottom of the league. The Wizards are maybe the worst team in the league and seem intent on letting Poole shoot his way out of his early-season funk. He’ll improve statistically and have a few big games, but Jordan Poole is blazing towards the losing player distinction. Hopefully, he figures it out, but if he doesn’t, I hope he doubles down on being the next Nick Young. 

On-Off Non-Star shooting guard: Austin Reaves

Expectations were sky-high for Austin Reaves entering the season. He was an integral part of the Lakers’ surprise run to the Western Conference Finals and had a strong showing in the FIBA World Cup for Team USA. His slow statistical start to the season has been a significant letdown, and it has cost the Lakers in the early going. 

Reaves’ on-off net rating of minus-16.8 is the 24th-worst in the league, but that ranking doesn’t do him justice. 228 of his 349 minutes have come with LeBron James on the court, who has the 10th-best on-off net rating at plus-20.9. In 121 non-LeBron minutes, the Lakers have posted a minus-16.6 net rating with Reaves on the court. 

Before this season, Reaves had posted positive on-court and on-off net ratings and was fine in non-LeBron minutes. This is almost certainly a small sample fluke compounded by a slow start. However, if it is not, then the Lakers are in serious trouble. LeBron turns 39 in December, and the Lakers desperately need Reaves to be able to keep the team afloat when LeBron rests.  

On-Off Non-Star small forward: Andrew Wiggins

Andrew Wiggins’ putrid start has been one of the more under-the-radar storylines of the season. Stephen Curry is blazing, Chris Paul has been excellent leading the bench, and Draymond Green and Klay Thompson are still good players, but the Warriors are 6-6. 

Last season, Wiggins’ extended absence attending to personal matters sunk the Warriors’ season. They had a plus-4.9 net rating with him on the court, and he featured in almost all of their best lineups. However, this season, the Warriors have a minus-10.1 net rating with Wiggins on the court, and his on-off net rating of minus-25.9 is the seventh-worst. 

Nothing is going right with Wiggins on the court, but the defense is most troublesome. With him on the court, the Warriors are hemorrhaging 120.1 points per 100 possessions, and their opponents are only shooting 35.7 percent from 3, meaning bad 3-point shooting luck can’t be the explanation. 

Whatever is ailing Wiggins and the Warriors needs to be remedied. He is their third-most important player behind Curry and Green, and they’ve finally found a solution to keep their offense afloat without Curry in Chris Paul. If the Warriors can get Wiggins back on track, they’re a championship contender. After all, it’s how they won the title in 2022. 

On-Off Non-Star power forward: Paolo Banchero

Unlike the previous three names, Paolo Banchero hasn’t had a horrible individual start to the season. His numbers are relatively close to his Rookie of the Year winning campaign, and the Magic have shown significant year-over-year improvement, which is what makes Banchero’s on-off net rating so surprising. 

The Magic are 5-5 with a plus-1.6 net rating on the season, but Banchero, the team leader in minutes played, has an on-off net rating of minus-15.8 and an on-court net rating of minus-3.3. The Magic’s solid start amid Banchero-minutes struggles has been fueled by a bench that has been absolutely lights out and can be viewed a few ways. 

The more positive way to look at it is once the Magic’s starters start pulling their weight, they’ll be one of the most dangerous teams in the league. The more negative interpretation is that when their bench comes back to Earth, they’ll fall off a cliff. The most likely outcome is we’ll see a bit of both. The starters will start winning more of their minutes, the bench will lose a few more of theirs, and the overall performance will stay relatively similar. 

Paolo Banchero is off to a solid start to the season, and the Magic are clearly a team on the rise. Chances are they’re a season away from being a real threat in the East, but if he takes an in-season jump and brings their starting unit along for the ride, then the Magic could make the jump a season ahead of schedule. 

On-Off Non-Star center: Brook Lopez

The Bucks have not had the start they were hoping for. Integrating Damian Lillard into the fold was always going to take some time, but their offense and defense have been shambolic. In the Coach Budenholzer era, the Bucks were a defensive juggernaut, but this season they’ve been absolutely putrid on that end, and Brook Lopez’s on-off splits show just how far they’ve fallen. 

Lopez has an on-off net rating of minus-29.6 and an on court net rating of minus-15.3. The Bucks’ struggles with Lopez are a complete reversal of what we’ve previously seen. In his first five seasons in Milwaukee, he had an on court net rating of plus-9.0 and an on-off net rating of plus-5.9. 

Both the offense and defense have been a mess with Lopez on the court. Their 102.5 offensive rating is 27.7 points worse than when he sits, although extreme 3-point shooting variance is playing a large role, and their defensive rating of 118.1 with him on the court lags behind the 116.3 mark they have posted when he sits. 

Lopez’s shooting efficiency and rebounding have fallen on hard times, but he’s blocking as many shots as ever. It’s unlikely Lopez is the reason the Bucks are struggling, but he has borne the brunt of their slow start. The first order of business is for the Bucks to figure out their rebounding and go from there. They’ll get better as the season goes on, but they need to be dominant in the minutes Lopez is on the court to be a championship contender.