Hall of Fame debate: 5 pass-fail metrics to decide if Juan Soto is on HOF highway

When you scroll through the sports channels or read MLB news, you see the name Juan Soto making headlines quite often. As it turns out, Soto is pretty great. Strangely, he’s never been named MVP despite topping the MLB in OPS, OBP, and SLG while leading the NL in batting average during his 2020 campaign. Perhaps that year, he was robbed, but that is a matter of opinion.

Anyway, the way we hear others talk about Soto would likely give you the impression he’s a shoo-in Hall of Famer. And that leads us to our topic. Our goal today is to assess if Soto would be a Hall of Famer if he retired today.

For starters, if he retired today, no, he wouldn’t be eligible. To be eligible for a spot in Cooperstown, a player must play for at least 10 years. Juan Soto is currently in his seventh season. But that's beside the point.

Regardless of how he plays the rest of his career, does Soto already have a solid Hall of Fame case? To rephrase our objective just a tad, we will assess if Soto’s past and current numbers qualify him for a plaque in the halls adorned with past MLB greats once he makes it past 10 years of service time. How should we approach this?

When we see the faces and the names lining the walls in Cooperstown, we see the past legends that embodied the sport for an entire period of time. While Soto seems like he qualifies since his is a household name, there has to be a more tangible reason than this. That’s where our parameters come into play.

To start, any HOFer should have a large footprint in the annals of MLB history for at least five years, years that we'll refer to as HOF years. One year of triple crown baseball shouldn’t qualify anyone for the HOF unless they had other worthwhile achievements to back it up. But in the complicated world of HOF voting, you never know who is going to be accepted or left out. How can we prove that a season qualifies as a HOF year?

To determine if Juan Soto has a solid case, we’ll run his yearly stats through five pass-fail criteria that shouldn't be overlooked. Passing a single criterion should already hold some weight when it comes time for HOF voting. Should Soto succeed in any two criteria in the same year, his case for a HOF year in that season is very strong.

That said, let’s put Soto to the test.

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1. 40+ home run total

40 home runs in a single season is the stick by which we measure a true slugger. It’s not very rare, it’s been done 365 times before and counting, but it’s hard to dismiss a 40-home run season as a season that isn’t worthy of the HOF.

My favorite example of how raw power alone can lead to a HOF career is Harmon Killebrew. Over his career, Killebrew topped 40 homers eight times never eclipsing 50 long balls. His career .256 batting average is the lowest of any non-dead ball era hitter. His batting average only eclipsed .280 twice. Now, how about Soto?

Juan Soto has never hit 40 home runs in a season in his career. Soto’s current 2024 total of 37 is the highest in his career. This might be the year Soto finally breaks through the 40-mark. But for now, this test is a fail.

To quickly address Soto’s 2020 shortened year home run total, we will compare his total to others. Soto hit 13 that season tying him for 24th in the MLB. While good, it does not justify the moniker of a HOF year on its own.

But no worries, there is still plenty Soto can excel at.

2. .300+ batting average

A .300 batting average is a sure sign of quality. Any batting average that high gets plenty of consideration at voting time. For this, I’ll refer to the former skipper for the Twins, Paul Molitor. Molitor never had a season where he hit more than 19 home runs, but he did have 12 seasons where he posted averages above .300. It was his persistent hitting that landed him in the HOF.

Obviously, we can’t expect Soto to have 12 seasons worth of .300 batting averages in his seven years of MLB activity. But all he needs is five to make him a bona fide candidate this early in his career. After browsing through his stats, we can see that Soto has two years of .300+ ball under his belt. Soto hit for a .351 average in 2020 and a .313 average in 2021.

Soto's .351 came in the shortened season and was the second-highest average in the MLB that year.

Soto’s average this season stands at .299. While as close as one can get, it is not a .300 average and you have to draw the line somewhere. But that doesn’t mean this isn’t a HOF year for Soto. And that brings us to our next parameter.

3. Combination of really good batting average and really good home run total  

You shouldn’t need a .300 average and/or 40 home runs to qualify for a HOF year. HOFer Carlton Fisk played 24 years in the MLB. He only hit for an average higher than .300 once (with a qualifying number of plate appearances) and posted a home run total higher than 26 once when he hit 37 in 1985.

The moral of this story is (besides playing for 24 years) if you can put together enough quality seasons, you might be a Hall of Famer. So, what does Soto have to offer?

As you can see, I included the 2020 and 2021 stats despite the fact Soto already passed one of our parameters because I think his decent home run numbers pad the chances of those two seasons being HOF years (as if a .351 average was ever in doubt).

Quality is quality, but this is the Hall of Fame we’re talking about. Personally, I think if you’re going to hit for a .275 average, you need to hit at least 35 home runs to qualify for a HOF year. If you’re going to hit .290, you at least need 25 home runs. But flexibility is key.

According to my standards, Fisk only has three HOF years, four at most. But perhaps I’m a bit stringent on what I like to see. However, I’m not a BBWAA voter or an expert on what should qualify one as a HOFer. Any decision made is at the voters' discretion. And I will confess, Fisk was a very good player for two decades. But how about Soto?

After looking at the numbers, it seems as though quality seasons are all Juan Soto does. Soto’s numbers in 2023 barely meet my standard to the point where it is verbatim what I wrote. The only seasons that don’t qualify as HOF years in my opinion are 2018 (barely) and 2022. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t HOF-caliber. I’ll explain that in a second.

In any case, Soto has five years of qualifying stats that have satisfied this parameter. Is it enough?

4. 5.0+ WAR

I say this just about every time I write about WAR, but it isn’t always the best tool for measuring a player’s overall value. It often values defense a lot higher than it should and there is no standard on how to calculate it. If you want actual results-based stats, standard metrics can give you most of what you’re after. Still, WAR does what it’s intended to do, even though it isn’t perfect.

For this parameter, a WAR of 5.0 or higher should be sufficient for a HOF year. Perhaps it is somewhat arbitrarily chosen, but it is a very good WAR value, nonetheless, and should be hard to dispute as a HOF year. How does Soto stack up? (WAR values provided by FanGraphs)

As you can see, Soto posted three seasons of above 5.0 WAR values in the past and is currently posting one this year. The 2.5 WAR in 2020 can be explained by the shortened season and was tied for ninth in the MLB. His 2020 total should be sufficient for a HOF year and that gives him five years of HOF WAR values.

5. X-Factor

Not all players enter the HOF based on their average or home run total. Bill Mazeroski only hit above .280 once (.283 in 1957) and never hit more than 19 home runs in a single season. Mazeroski retired with a career .260 average and 138 total home runs in his 17-year career.

What did Mazeroski do that was HOF-worthy? Mazeroski hit the first walk off home run in World Series history and was one of the best defensive players in the game. He accumulated eight Gold Gloves for his only team, the Pittsburgh Pirates. So, what is Juan Soto’s superpower?

Soto might not be an excellent outfielder, but he does have something very valuable up his sleeves. Soto is one of, if not the best on-base threats in modern-day baseball. Soto has drawn more walks than struck out for the past five years in a row. So, for this parameter, we will measure Soto’s on-base percentages. The average OBP for a HOF hitter is currently .377. Since that is the average, we will set our sights on anything above .370. How does Soto fare?

One look and you can notice Soto shreds this standard. Every year, he has and still is posting percentages higher than .400. The .490 OBP in 2020 is utterly outrageous. His .422 career on-base percentage is tied for 17th in MLB history just ahead of Mickey Mantle’s .421. If Soto is elected to the Hall of Fame for just one achievement, this would be it.

Normally, an X factor would aide a player’s chances at winning an award. If you could steal bases, you would have an edge over another player with similar stats that didn’t steal as much. However, this is Soto’s claim to fame that overshadows even his power which has been very good.

Conclusion

Before we draw conclusions, let’s tally up all Soto’s passes and fails.

The asterisks in 2024 are because I believe Soto has a great chance at passing the criteria though he currently doesn't. The others in 2018 and 2022 represent quality seasons that didn't quite meet our HOF standards but are still quality seasons that can be salvaged as HOF years if Soto could fill other criteria. It appears he did that.

Evaluating 2019, it seems his average, home run total, and on-base percentage collectively justify a HOF year. However, this isn't the case for 2022 where his low .242 average sinks his otherwise decent case. Still, Soto has posted six HOF years in his short seven-year career. It appears Soto passes with flying colors.

It looks good, but we should be reminded, just because it looks like someone is a HOFer doesn’t mean they are a lock. I used Bill Mazeroski as an example before. He retired with 8 Gold Gloves, a .260 average and 138 home runs. Andruw Jones retired with 10 Gold Gloves, a .254 average, and 434 home runs.

When using our parameters and browsing through each set of stats, Mazeroski never once passes a single criterion other than the X factor for his Gold Gloves. But Jones has more and, in addition, posted four HOF years using our standards, eight HOF years at most if you include the WAR values. Jones also held the Braves’ single-season home run record with 51 until Matt Olson hit 54 in 2023. Overall, by my count, Jones posted nine quality seasons with his bat alone.

But this doesn't mean Soto will be snubbed. As great as his numbers have been, I think we can expect Soto will be inducted one day.