Justin Jefferson competing against time with Vikings contract extension goals

Across the NFL, some of the league’s greatest wide receivers are in a contractual holding pattern.

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson, San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins, and Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb could all be waiting for the first domino to fall, which would provide them with a benchmark to reference for their own deal.

As the league’s revenue and salary cap continues to skyrocket, so does the wide receiver market. Jefferson is likely to become the highest-paid non-quarterback, earning more than $34 million per year.

NFL reporters suggest wide receiver market could tank

ProFootballTalk’s Mike Florio speculated whether those big wide receiver contracts will ever come, or whether they would fall by the wayside similar to running back contracts. 

Florio believes that an ample supply will decrease the demand for elite receivers, causing the wide receiver market to go the way of the running back market. 

In recent years, teams have opted to move on from running backs after their rookie contract, instead electing to draft a replacement through the NFL Draft. This has been a successful approach since the college pipeline has provided quality running backs in late rounds. 

Former NFL scout Bucky Brooks agreed that Florio’s assessment is a possibility.

“I think this is a realistic possibility with the [wide receiver] market moving into the $30M range,” Brooks said. “There are so many young [wide receivers] in the college pipeline with ‘plug-and-play’ potential that teams could opt to draft and replace elite veterans with younger, cheaper players. Teams with A+ [quarterbacks], in particular, could lean on young, cheap [receivers] after the QB1 gets big money (SEE: KC Chiefs).”

Wide receivers aren’t in the same position as running backs, however. For a quarterback, the chemistry and timing with wide receivers is vital to success. It can take years to achieve synchronicity with a receiver.

Justin Jefferson, wide receivers aren't plug-and-play options

Florio pointed to the Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, and Green Bay Packers as examples of teams that opted to not sign their star wideout to a lucrative extension, but he failed to point out what happened to those offenses. 

The Tennessee Titans front office essentially lost their jobs for trading away wide receiver A.J. Brown and replacing him with Treylon Burks. Brown, meanwhile, helped Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts take a huge step in his development.

The Green Bay Packers made three consecutive NFC Championship Games and quarterback Aaron Rodgers won two consecutive NFL MVP honors in his last years with wide receiver Davante Adams. After Adams joined the Las Vegas Raiders, Rodgers and the Packers struggled mightily, ultimately missing the postseason in a disappointing 2022 campaign. 

Both Florio and Brooks pointed to the Kansas City Chiefs as an example of a team who has succeeded by moving on from an elite wide receiver. While the Chiefs have won the past two Super Bowls, it’s been evident that their passing game has deteriorated significantly. In 2023, Kansas City’s success came from their ground game and defense. Meanwhile, wide receiver Tyreek Hill has helped resuscitate the Miami Dolphins, who have made the playoffs in two consecutive seasons with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suddenly playing at a high level.

As long as wide receivers continue to elevate sinking offenses and turn struggling quarterbacks into household names, there will be a place for elite players with large contracts.

Moving on from big-name wide receivers may have been a smart idea for some teams. At the same time, Green Bay, Kansas City, and Tennessee are all learning that wide receiver is not exactly a plug-and-play position like running back.

The reason for the contract delays is likely related to certain players taking a patient approach as others continue to negotiate their value.