Justin Verlander injury could have sneaky benefit for Steve Cohen’s Mets

The New York Mets gave Justin Verlander a two-year deal worth $86.6 million expecting to compete with him and Max Scherzer leading the way. When the team fell outside of postseason contention in 2023, the Mets shipped Verlander and Scherzer off to the AL West, receiving several prospects in return.

Verlander was traded to the Houston Astros and pitched well down the stretch, but the team would fall short in the postseason, losing in the ALCS. The Mets might've gotten a couple of nice prospects but the Astros got Verlander, a seemingly ageless wonder who was still among the league's elite.

The 2024 season has been a completely different story for Verlander and the Astros.

The Astros are still several games under .500, Verlander hasn't been at his sharpest when he's pitched, and now he has suffered another injury that will put him onto the IL. Verlander missed the first three weeks of the season with right shoulder inflammation and is now headed back to the IL with neck discomfort.

That's obviously brutal news for the Astros, but it might surprisingly be great news for the Mets for one particular reason.

Justin Verlander's latest injury could help Steve Cohen and the Mets a lot

Included in Verlander's contract is a third-year vesting option that requires him to throw at least 140 innings in the 2024 campaign. If Verlander does that, he'd earn another $35 million, $17.5 million of which would be covered by the Mets. If he doesn't, Verlander would be a free agent and the Mets would be off the hook financially.

Before landing on the IL, as SNY's Danny Abriano points out, Verlander was on pace for 130 innings pitched. Now that he's set to miss at least a couple more starts, his pace will only be lower. It's not impossible for Verlander to reach the 140 innings mark, but he'd have to keep his IL stay to a minimum, stay healthy the rest of the way, and pitch incredibly well.

Verlander had 57 innings under his belt this season, averaging 5.7 innings per start before this injury. The earliest he can return is July 1, and that's the best-case scenario. By the time he returns from the IL, the Astros will be more than halfway through the regular season. He'd need to go incredibly deep into games to get to the 140 number.

Assuming his 2025 option doesn't vest, that'd be great news for the Mets. That's an extra $17.5 million they can work with. They can use it to throw even more money at a guy like Juan Soto, or they can even use it to improve other parts of their roster. $17.5 million is a lot of money!

The Mets will have a ton of money coming off their books at the end of this season even without the Verlander money, and this injury could give Steve Cohen even more to work with.