Where the Las Vegas Aces are missing the mark

The Las Vegas Aces are the reigning back-to-back WNBA Champions, but right now, it doesn’t feel like they are in position to defend their title. For a team that returned six of their top seven scorers, they should have hit the ground running to begin the 2024 season. However, this has not been the case.

They went into the Olympic break at 16-8, the fifth-best record in the league. However, they're just a half-game behind the Seattle Storm and Minnesota Lynx and with a hot restart, even the Liberty at No. 1 with a 21-4 record aren't that far out of reach.

Surely the team has missed Candace Parker’s leadership and contributions, but let’s not forget that she played less than half of the season last in 2023. Coach Becky Hammon added Tiffany Hayes to fill Parker’s void this offseason; a solid veteran coming off a 12.1 scoring average with the Connecticut Sun. The other caveat to the team’s slow start is that one of those leading returners is Chelsea Gray, who missed the first 12 games of the season with an injury. 

Regardless of the roster changes, the team needs to figure out ways to win more consistently like in years past. I looked into what made last year’s team so great, and where the Aces need to improve after the Olympic break.  

Offense

The Aces love playing fast. They had the second-highest pace of play in 2023 and are playing even faster this season, recording the highest pace of play in the league. Numerically, however, their pace is quite similar, which makes it a bit of a mystery why the team is averaging over four points per game less than they did a season ago. The obvious answer is that both their 3-point and overall field goal percentages have dropped by three percentage points, however, there is more to this equation.

A lot of the issues have come down to both shot selection, and players simply not making shots at the rate they did in years prior. While A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young have both increased their points per game averages and Kelsey Plum has retained hers, Chelsea Gray has seen a drastic decrease in scoring.

In 2023 she was scoring 15.3 points a game, and so far this season, she is only managing 7.3. Her 3-point percentage has dropped from 42.1 percent on nearly four attempts a game, to a mere 24.0 percent on only 2.1 attempts per game. Even her free throw shooting has suffered, as she is only shooting 74 percent compared to her 90 percent clip last year. While Gray has struggled early this season to score, she has also been rebounding and assisting at lower rates as well.

As far as shot selection, there are a few players that need to make an adjustment. The first player is Kelsey Plum, who has seen a dip in her shooting percentages both from inside and outside the arc. The most recent game against the Indiana Fever was a prime example of her at her best. She was decisive when shooting, was aggressive coming off of screens and shot the ball with confidence.

The Chicago Sky game right before the break was an example of her forcing shots. She seemed indecisive and out of rhythm all night and despite chucking up a few airballs, she continued shooting, which is good to an extent. But when you don’t have it, you don’t have it, and you’ve got to find other ways to help your team win, which she was unable to do that night. 

Jackie Young is another player who has seen a huge drop in her 3-point percentage, as just a season ago she was shooting 45 percent from beyond the arc, but now sits at 34.3 percent. Her overall shooting percentage has dropped by seven points as well.

Young can fill it up in a hurry and ride out hot streaks better than almost anyone in the league. She needs to be more aggressive when she sees one go through because the odds are that the next one is too. If she waits too long to get aggressive in games or allows too much time between shot attempts, she will not be at her best. 

The Aces are also dead last in the league in second-chance points per game and have one of the lowest percentages of points in the paint per game. Both of these are inexcusable when you have an elite rebounder and paint scorer in A’ja Wilson.

Perhaps she needs the ball even more than she already gets it, or the rest of the team needs to attack the paint more often to keep opposing defenses in check. The opposite is true for Kate Martin, who is an elite 3-point shooter by percentage, so she should be looking for catch-and-shoot opportunities whenever she can because her chances of scoring seemingly decrease as she moves closer to the rim. 

Defense

They say that defense wins championships, but basketball lately has become more of a scoring-oriented game. While both facets are incredibly important, the Aces need to improve their defense dramatically if they want a chance to three-peat.

In 2023, the team had the No. 1 overall defensive rating in the WNBA, but this season they are fifth. There seems to be a correlation because last year, the team was the best in the league, and this year, they are fifth. 

Las Vegas is giving up three more points per game, which does not feel like a lot, but when you factor in that the offense is scoring less too, that leaves a lot more close games hanging in the balance. The defensive struggles can be summed up into three key points: limiting opposing 3-point percentage, fouling less often, and giving up fewer offensive rebounds.

As far as the opposing 3-point percentage goes, the Aces are relinquishing a clip of 36.5 percent. Only two teams in the league shoot a better percentage than that on the season, which means that teams are shooting better against the Aces than nearly any other game.

When you have an elite shot blocker like Wilson, your defense should be putting a premium on running opposing players off the 3-point line and inviting them into the paint.

When it comes to fouling, the solution is simple: just don’t foul. This is easier said than done, obviously, because teams just wouldn’t foul if they could help it. A lot of the Aces’ miscues come down to poor positioning or taking gambles, which is leading to opposing teams shooting more free throws per game than they did in 2023.

Once again, A’ja Wilson is incredible at both blocking and altering shots in the paint, which means that the guards and wings should simply move their feet on the perimeter and force tough jump shots because it is unlikely the offense player is going to get a clean look in the paint. 

Lastly, the team has given up far too many offensive rebounds this season. The Aces are one of the biggest and most athletic teams in the W, so there is no excuse for these lapses. Opposing teams shoot 43.0 percent from the floor against the Aces, so giving up 7.3 offensive rebounds per contest means that the team is giving up over three points per game more than they need to.

Coach Hammon will get this team right; I have faith in that, and so does ESPN. The stars of the team continued to play together in Paris and won a gold medal, and Chelsea Gray, as I mentioned, got some extra games under her belt to combat her absence at the beginning of the season.

The rest of the group who was not in Paris had time to rest their bodies and make improvements that would help bolster the Aces’ chances of another run at a title.