5 records LeBron James should break in twilight of NBA career

LeBron James is one of the greatest players in basketball history. Four MVPs, 20 All-NBA selections, and four championships with three different franchises will do that. For a player with nothing left to prove (unless you’ve been Jordan pilled into oblivion), the final years of his career will be about chasing down records and playing with his son, Bronny James. 

The elder James already holds the all-time scoring and field goal attempts records (40,474 PTS and 29,313 FGA) and is the all-time leader in value over a replacement player (VORP) with 151.92. Currently, VORP can only be calculated back to 1973-74, so Kareem Abdul-Jabbar misses out on four seasons, including his three best, and Wilt Chamberlain retired following the 1972-73 season.

That being said, win shares correlate very strongly to VORP (0.98), and using a linear forecast model, based on Abdul-Jabbar's win shares, he would have ended his career with 129.4 VORP. So it’s a pretty safe bet that James is the undisputed all-time leader in VORP. 

Over the next two seasons, James is poised to break five new records. He could always retire after this season, but his existing contract is for two years, and he’s still playing at a high level. Injury and further age-related decline could see him miss out on a few, but chances are James will be adding these five records to his Russian novel-sized list of accomplishments. 

5 records LeBron James should break before he retires

5. Field goals missed 

If LeBron James plays next season, he will certainly set the all-time missed field goals record. The current leader, Kobe Bryant, has a five-shot lead over James (14,481 to 14,476). Last season, he averaged 8.3 missed field goals per game, which means this record could be broken in the first quarter of game one. While being the all-time leader in missed shots doesn’t sound like a record one wants to have, every non-active player in the top 30 is a Hall of Famer. The fact that James set the points and field goal attempts record before he checked this one off his list is all the more impressive. 

4. Minutes played

People complain about load management ad nauseam, but none of that ire should be directed towards King James. He’s second all-time in minutes played at 56,597, the equivalent of 39 and a third days. To catch Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in first, James is only going to have to have to play 849 minutes. He has averaged a little more than 35 minutes per game over the past six seasons, which puts him on pace to break the record in his 25th game. Even if he drops all the way down to 30 minutes per game, he’ll only need 29 games to set it. Last season, the Lakers played their 31st game on Christmas day, so if they plan scheduled rest days accordingly, James could set the record during the NBA’s biggest regular season day of action. 

3. Games played

While James will have little issue setting the all-time missed field goals and minutes played record, it’s going to take some time to reach the all-time games played record. James currently resides in 6th place but is only 119 games behind Robert Parish in first. There’s a chance that injury derails his quest for the most games played, as he has only averaged 58.2 games per season since coming to Los Angeles. As long as James is relatively healthy, he’ll be able to break this record. However, should he come up short over the next two seasons, he may decide to hang it up and settle for second place. 

2. Field goals

Even though James is the all-time leader in points and field goal attempts, he is not the all-time leader in field goals. The primary reason for this divergence is he has played in the most 3-point-heavy era in league history. When one shot is worth 50 percent more than another, you don’t need to hit as many field goals to generate the same or more points. 

The current all-time leader in field goals is Kareem Abdul-Jabbar at 15,837, and James is exactly 1,000 field goals behind him in second. James has never converted 1,000 field goals in a single season, but he has only once dipped below 500, and that was in an injury-abbreviated season. What makes this record more difficult to set than the others, is that it requires good health and good play. 

However, if James continues to decline slowly, he should have no problem playing at a level high enough to reach 1,001 more field goals over the next two seasons. The health factor is trickier to predict, but even with spotty health and declining play, he has averaged 592.9 field goals per season since joining the Lakers. 

1. Win Shares

Win shares aren’t the best all-in-one advanced metric, but they are the only one that goes back to the beginning of professional basketball. The current leader is Kareem Abdul-Jabbar with 273.41, but James is hot on his heels at 263.67. Back in his prime, producing 10-plus Win shares was child’s play. However, James is decidedly not in his prime anymore, even if he remains an elite player. 

Over the past six seasons, he has averaged 7.3 win shares per game and .173 win shares per 48 minutes. Baking in some natural decline, James should be able to squeak past Abdul-Jabbar over the next two seasons. However, any injury or decline in performance could see him fall short. For instance, if James plays 50 games, averaging 32 minutes per game, at a .150 win shares per 48-minute pace, he’d end the season with exactly five win shares. That’d still keep his hopes alive, but the margin for error would shrink considerably. 

James has a very strong chance to set each of these records before the end of the 2025-26 season. He’s old enough that injury and age could see him fall short, but if he’s dead set on playing as long as he can, a third season would all but wrap it up for him. Regardless of who your G.O.A.T. is, LeBron James is one of the greatest to ever do it, and he’ll retire with a host of records that could stand the test of time.