March Madness 2024 Bubble Watch: First Four Out, Last Four In, more on March 12
We're heading down the stretch of the college basketball regular season as Selection Sunday is merely days away. Champ Week provides one final opportunity for teams on the bubble to solidify their resumes with big wins or fall off entirely with an ill-timed loss.
Bubble teams will also be praying that we don't get bid thieves this week to shrink the bubble by a spot or two. Let's take a look at the current state of the bubble before the major conference tournaments kick off in earnest.
Note: Records and NET Rankings are current as of 3:00 p.m. ET on March 12. Strength of schedule figures are based on KenPom's totals. Top seeds in conference tournaments are projected to be in the field and are not eligible for Bubble Watch.
March Madness Bubble Watch: Last Four Byes
Team | Michigan State | Seton Hall | Oklahoma | TCU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | Big Ten | Big East | Big 12 | Big 12 |
Record | 18-13 (10-10) | 20-11 (13-7) | 20-11 (8-10) | 20-11 (9-9) |
NET | 24 | 62 | 43 | 40 |
Quad 1 Record | 3-8 | 5-7 | 4-11 | 4-10 |
Quad 2 Record | 5-5 | 4-3 | 5-0 | 3-1 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 10-0 | 11-1 | 11-0 | 13-0 |
Strength Of Schedule | 12 | 42 | 32 | 65 |
Non-Conference Strength Of Schedule | 75 | 243 | 320 | 357 |
Last Game | L 65-64 At Indiana | W 86-62 Vs. DePaul | L 94-80 At Texas | L 79-77 Vs. UCF |
Next Game | Vs. Minnesota 3/14 | Vs. St. John's 3/14 | Vs. TCU 3/13 | Vs. Oklahoma 3/13 |
Michigan State has slumped down the stretch, adding losses to non-tournament teams in Ohio State, Indiana and Iowa to drop down to the bubble. An excellent schedule and metrics mean the Spartans should be safe but they could drop down to Dayton if they lose their Big Ten Tournament opener against Minnesota.
The NET still doesn't love Seton Hall but their five Quad 1 wins and 13-7 record in a strong Big East will play nicely in the selection room. Knocking off St. John's in the Big East quarterfinals on Thursday should lock up a bid but they will probably be safe even with a loss.
Oklahoma has stumbled massively down the stretch, losing five of seven with the only wins coming against Oklahoma State and Cincinnati, and there is potential for distraction after rumors emerged of head coach Porter Moser flirting with taking DePaul's job. Failing to beat TCU in the Big 12 Tournament could make things very uncomfortable come Selection Sunday.
The resume that the Horned Frogs have is very similar to Oklahoma's but they fall behind the Sooners due to worse scheduling figures. Wednesday's game against the Sooners may be all TCU needs to secure its ticket to dance but a loss here could leave them vulnerable to getting snubbed.