March Madness 2024 Bubble Watch: First Four Out, Last Four In, more on March 12

Bubble Watch Awards

Best Bubble Win: Seton Hall Over Villanova

There was sentiment last week that Seton Hall had slipped behind Villanova in the bubble pecking order. Picking up a 10-point win over the Wildcats allowed the Pirates to leapfrog both Villanova and St. John's in the Big East hierarchy, leaving them well-positioned to make the NCAA Tournament even if they lose to the Red Storm at the Big East Tournament on Thursday.

Worst Bubble Loss: Michigan State At Indiana

The Spartans didn't show up early against Indiana, falling behind 24-7 over the first 11 minutes, and that hole proved to be too much to overcome as the Hoosiers hung on for a one-point win. The loss was the fourth in the past five games for Michigan State, whose only win in that span was a four-point victory at home over Northwestern on Senior Night, leaving things feeling much more dangerous if Tom Izzo's team can't take care of business against Minnesota on Thursday.

Biggest Bubble Opportunity: Virginia

The Cavaliers are narrowly out of the field as of post time but the ACC Tournament draw did them a tremendous favor by setting them up with a potential Clemson/Duke path to the final. Winning against the Tigers might be enough to get Virginia over the cut line but topping the Blue Devils as well would lock things up ahead of the championship game.

Bubble Team In Danger: Indiana State

History hasn't always been kind to teams like the Sycamores, who stack up Quad 3 and 4 wins in a mid-major conference but don't get as many opportunities to rack up good wins in non-conference play since many of the big boys won't schedule them. Indiana State passed the eye test on Sunday and has strong metrics but if enough power conference teams make moves on the bubble the Sycamores could be left at the altar by 6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday night.