March Madness 2024 Bubble Watch: First Four Out, Last Four In, more on Feb. 27

Just two weeks are left in the college basketball regular season. How does the NCAA Tournament bubble look entering play today?

North Carolina v Virginia
North Carolina v Virginia / Ryan M. Kelly/GettyImages
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March Madness Bubble Watch: First Four Out

Team

Conference

Record

NET

Quad 1 Record

Quad 2 Record

Quad 3/4 Record

Last Game

Next Game

Villanova

Big East

15-12 (8-8)

38

3-8

6-1

6-3

L 78-54 At No. 1 UCONN

Vs. Georgetown 2/27

Colorado

Pac-12

18-9 (9-7)

32

1-5

7-4

10-0

W 89-65 Vs. Utah

Vs. California 2/28

Butler

Big East

16-12 (7-10)

62

3-11

4-1

8-0

L 76-64 At Seton Hall

Vs. St. John's 2/28

Texas A&M

SEC

15-12 (6-8)

58

6-6

2-2

7-4

L 85-61 At No. 5 Tennessee

Vs. No. 18 South Carolina 2/28

Getting UCONN on the road after they lost was a bad draw for Villanova, which got blown out and now has 12 total losses on the season. The metrics like the Wildcats and their nine wins against the top two quadrants are important but you have to also win some of these games, meaning a 3-1 finish to the regular season is a necessity to stay this high.

Colorado blew out fellow bubbler Utah to move to this tier but they only have one Quad 1 victory on the year and that came at home against Washington State. The schedule doesn't offer any Quad 1 opportunities for the Buffaloes before the Pac-12 tournament so they need to run the table to stack up wins and bolster their resume that way.

Things are going the wrong way for Butler, which has dropped four in a row, including two games to fellow bubblers Villanova and Seton Hall last week. The Bulldogs already have 12 losses so they need to run the table to get to .500 in league play, which is doable given their remaining schedule (St. John's, at DePaul, Xavier) and hit the Big East Tournament at 19-12.

Much like Butler, Texas A&M has slid out of the field with an ill-timed four-game skid. Six Quad 1 wins is the most of anyone in this section but four Quad 3 losses are weighing the Aggies down, meaning they really have to right the ship with a win over a ranked South Carolina team on Wednesday.